China’s Neighbours Shouldn’t Cheer On Its Slowdown

China’s economic troubles have so far been a boon to other Asian markets. But if the world’s second largest economy continues to turn sour, things could start to look uglier for them too.

Major Asian stock markets have been doing well in 2023. Japan’s Topix index has gained 24% this year while Taiwan’s Taiex index has risen 18% and Korea’s Kospi is up 15%. That is in contrast to Chinese stocks: the MSCI China index has dropped 6%, despite a strong start of the year.

There are some fundamental reasons why Asian stocks outside of China have gone up. Buybacks and dividends are rising in Japan, while Warren Buffett’s endorsement gave the market another push. The hope of an eventual rebound in the semiconductor industry has lifted stocks in Taiwan and South Korea. But these markets also benefited from foreign investors fleeing Chinese stocks: markets such as Japan and South Korea have seen foreign inflows in recent months. Some multinationals have also been migrating manufacturing out of China and into other Asian countries to diversify their supply chains.

However, Goldman Sachs has noted that correlations between China and other markets in the region have risen lately, indicating potential concerns of spillover.

China is the top trading partner of many countries in the region like Japan and South Korea, and weak demand from China could ripple through to its neighbours. South Korea’s exports to China, accounting for roughly 20% of its total, fell 25% year on year in the first eight months of this year.

And falling investment in China—especially in the real-estate sector—could weigh on commodity prices. So far prices of commodities such as iron ore have been resilient this year as demand from sectors like autos and infrastructure have softened the blows from property construction. But commodity-exporting nations such as Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia could suffer if Chinese investment remains weak.

The confidence crisis in China could also hurt companies selling to the country’s consumers. The number of Chinese tourists, in particular, is still way down from pre-Covid levels for many countries like Japan and Thailand.

As China is the economic juggernaut in the region, the country’s pain is unlikely to be its neighbors’ gain for long.

Move over, Marvel. The next blockbuster entertainment franchise might come from Japan.

Anime is shaping up as the country’s next big export industry, beyond cars and electronics. This once-niche entertainment form is entering the worldwide mainstream , and its growth could light up investors’ portfolios.

The global market for Japanese animation, known as anime, and its related products has more than doubled between 2012 and 2022 to 2.9 trillion yen, equivalent to $20 billion, according to the Association of Japanese Animations. The overseas market has been driving that growth. Markets outside of Japan made up around half of the total in 2022, compared with around 18% a decade earlier.

Streaming companies such as Netflix are certainly taking notice. Its live-action series “One Piece,” based on a Japanese comic, was its most-watched show in the second half of 2023. In fact, anime content on Netflix in the period logged 14% viewing growth from the first half of 2023, compared with a 4% drop overall, according to Jefferies. These streaming platforms will continue to introduce more anime-related content to their global audiences.

Japan’s anime and manga, the Japanese word for comics, have created many well-known characters and franchises over the years, such as Pokémon. And it looks to be getting even more mainstream. The anime market in North America has grown from $1.6 billion in 2018 to $4 billion this year, according to Jefferies. And Asia, which has long been more receptive to anime, will likely continue to grow strongly, especially in China. Anime has also been popular on Chinese streaming platforms such as Bilibili .

Apart from streaming, selling merchandise can be even more lucrative. Sanrio , which owns characters like Hello Kitty , has reported record profits, with its share price rising nearly sixfold over the past five years.

Sony would be another major beneficiary of this trend . The company owns animation streaming service Crunchyroll, which had 15 million subscribers as of June. That compared with around 3 million subscribers when Sony announced the acquisition of the streaming service from AT&T for nearly $1.2 billion in 2020. This contrasts with Sony’s approach in online streaming for other content: It acts more like an “arms dealer,” selling movies and shows to platforms such as Netflix and Amazon.com . That means the company could benefit more directly from the anime boom. And anime also has strong synergies with its movie and game businesses .

Anime maker Toei Animation, which owns popular franchises such as “One Piece” and “Dragon Ball,” is another listed company that would benefit. It makes anime itself, but more important for the overseas markets, it also earns licensing revenue from the copyrights to popular franchises that it owns. Sales outside of Japan accounted for more than half of its total revenue in the latest fiscal year ended in March. Season two for Netflix’s “One Piece” is already in production. Toei stock has nearly tripled since the end of 2019.

Anime has blockbuster potential, not just for audiences but for investors as well.

China’s Neighbours Shouldn’t Cheer On Its Slowdown

Asian markets have been rallying even as China falters, but that may not last

As Japanese animation and comics go global, opportunities abound for investors