Gold Is at a Record High. Why It Is Set to Rise Even More.

Is gold’s strength a flash in the pan or a golden opportunity?

The yellow metal just completed its best two-quarter stretch in eight years on its way to a record high of $2,319 per ounce today.

That performance comes as a bit of a surprise at first blush. After all, gold prices typically rise when interest rates decrease and fall when rates swing higher. Yet recent economic data suggest the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously thought to tame inflation.

There has been some good news on inflation. Last Friday, for instance, we learned that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose just 2.8% year over year and 0.3% month over month, as expected , in February.

Shorter-term trends paint a more challenging picture for the Fed, however, given that the three-month core PCE trend reflects 3.5% annual growth compared with 2.5% in late 2023.

“The relevant news is that recent inflation data are rising briskly,” writes Michael Lewis, who heads Free Market Inc., an economic consulting firm. This translates into higher rates for longer as the odds of a June rate cut have fallen to 58% from 73% a month ago. Mary Daly, the chief of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, said Tuesday there is “ really no urgency ” to cut rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment today.

Monday’s ISM manufacturing index report reinforces that narrative . In March, the index delivered its strongest growth since September 2022, rising to 50.3, easily exceeding the expectation of 48.4.

Not surprisingly, on Monday, stocks fell as the yield on the 10-year bond surged to 4.32%. Tuesday we saw more of the same with key stock indexes falling and the 10-year yield rising as high as 4.4% , its highest level in 2024 . Higher rates have been pressuring stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies .

Gold is powering higher, however. March 22 is the last day that gold prices fell. The price of gold has risen 9.7% this year while the yield on the 10-year has gained 10.4%.

“Gold is the near-zero yielder that is then showing record demand, despite a world where high nominal yields and carry are still dominant,” wrote Deutsche Bank macro strategist Alan Ruskin in a newsletter last week. “If gold prices won’t go down in an inflated nominal yield world, they can surely go up as the G-10 yield plateau gives way, and yields likely start their descent in” the second half of this year, Ruskin continued.

So what explains gold’s recent rise amid higher rates? Strong demand from China is one factor . The People’s Bank of China went on a buying spree last year, acquiring a net 225 metric tons of gold—the most among all central banks and the country’s biggest expansion of gold reserves since 1977.

With China’s central bank reserves at a record high, its consumers are also actively buying the precious metal, partly due to concerns about their economy and stock market. Among Chinese investors, demand for gold-related ETFs is “booming,” according to The Wall Street Journal, and Chinese imports of gold have surged 51% in the first two months of 2024 compared with the same period last year.

Gold’s more volatile counterpart, silver, surged to a two-year high today, gaining 5% to $27.22 per ounce. Unlike gold, which is at a record high, silver would need to rise more than 80% to reach its 2011 high of near $50.

“The formerly nonchalant silver finally appears ready to join gold’s advance,” John Roque, a technical analyst at 22V Research, wrote in a note, Barron’s reported . “$30 as the first target and then, presuming a breakout, $40 as the second target.” Silver prices are up 12.5% this year.

The entire commodities complex is showing relative strength as the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at its highest level since December . Crude oil is 20.6% higher this year.

Safe-haven demand for gold may increase given fast-rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Moreover, concerns about the national debt are growing louder and more pointed from notable figures across the political spectrum. Unfortunately, there is no indication that politicians will quit pandering to short-term considerations (meaning votes) by making tough choices. As such, expect them to keep playing Kick the Can until one of them slices their foot.

Given all of this, the outlook for gold remains bright . On March 29, Barron’s cited an analysis by economist Charles Gave, founder of Gavekal Research. “The S&P 500 is on the verge of becoming overvalued versus the stock of capital, while gold is almost undervalued against my measure of retained earnings.”

Gave added, “Gold is ‘undervalued’ against the S&P 500 by a hefty -52% and -13% versus its own long-term trend. In contrast, the S&P 500 stands 33% above its own long-term trend level.” Recommending that investors hedge equity exposure with at least 20% of their portfolio in gold, Gave concluded, “At this point my preference based on the relative position of the two reserve assets is to favour gold, followed by equities.”

Happy is the family whose members—parents, grandparents and grown children—trust each other enough to cooperate on shared goals, especially financial ones. When that is truly the case, Uncle Sam’s tax rules can help as well.

This matters especially now that mortgage rates are above 7%, and many families are looking for ways to help younger members. If the elders have resources and are confident younger ones can cooperate, a family loan could make homeownership possible while providing the elders with a useful income stream.

Other strategies can actually lower taxes, such as when funding 529 plans or Roth IRAs, or when someone inherits a traditional IRA with required withdrawals larger than they will need.

Here are three strategies useful for functional families.

Intrafamily loans

It is perfectly legal for families to lend money to a relative for a down payment or even a private mortgage.

But it is important not to cut corners, says Ryan McKeown, a CPA with Modern Wealth Enhancement in Minnesota. If the loan is for a down payment, be honest with the mortgage provider and have a formal agreement. The lender owes tax on the interest payments received.

If the loan is for a private mortgage, both sides should have legal representation with a formal written agreement, including payment terms. The lender owes tax on the interest, and the borrower often can deduct it if he or she itemizes.

To avoid IRS trouble, the interest rate shouldn’t be lower than the agency’s Applicable Federal Rate at the time of the loan. Currently that is about 5% for loans longer than nine years; about 4.5% for loans three to nine years; and about 4% for loans three years or less. Currently, traditional mortgage rates are generally above 7%.

In addition, the lender could use the $19,000 annual gift-tax exemption (described below) to forgive some or all of the interest or principal annually. If both lenders and borrowers are married, that is up to $76,000 a year. There is no tax for the borrower on such forgiveness, because it is from a gift.

If you’re going this route, McKeown advises against having a fixed plan to forgive the debt. Instead, do it in one-off letters specifying the amount—and keep careful records. Otherwise the IRS might try to treat the loan as a taxable gift.

Asset gifts

Powerful tax-saving moves for families often use gift-tax provisions. Under current law, anyone can give anyone else up to $19,000 of assets annually, free of gift tax. That means a married couple with three grandchildren could give them a total of $114,000 in 2026.

The gifts can be cash or other assets, like stock. For noncash gifts, the cost basis—which is the starting point for measuring taxable gain after a sale—“carries over” to the recipient. So if someone buys $1,000 of stock and gives it away when it is worth $5,000, the recipient’s cost basis is $1,000. If the recipient later sells the shares for $8,000, the taxable gain is $7,000.

Here’s an example showing how gifts could save a family taxes. Grandma is a widow of modest means, while her child and spouse have prospered. The couple has two children, and they want to contribute $5,000 to a 529 college-savings plan for each—but they need to sell stock to do it. Their tax rate on the sale would be 18.8%, and they would need to sell about $11,000 of stock.

However, Grandma’s federal tax rate on the stock sale is 0%. If the couple gives $10,000 of shares to Grandma, she could sell them, pay no tax, and fund the grandchildren’s 529 plans. This saves about $1,000 of tax.

These moves are legal, and they could be used in other ways, such as to help a young person fund a Roth IRA.

But trust among family members is essential: Under the law, givers can’t put conditions on a gift. Grandma could use her stock proceeds to take a cruise, but she makes 529 contributions instead.

Mark Sellner, a retired tax attorney and CPA living in Sarasota, Fla., uses this strategy. His children sell stock he gives them and fund 529 plans for his grandchildren.

The family’s tax savings aren’t huge, but he likes other benefits. The sales by his children don’t boost his adjusted gross income, which in turn could raise his Medicare Irmaa premiums or his 3.8% surtax on net investment income.

Sellner doesn’t worry about his children using the funds for another purpose.

“There can’t be any strings attached to gifts. Of course, it is up to us to decide whether to make them in the future,” he says.

Two caveats: The “kiddie tax” applies to most children under age 24, and it is levied at the parents’ rate on investment income above $2,700 in 2026. Consider this before making gifts to a young person.

Investors who give away stock also forgo the step-up, an important provision that exempts assets held at death from capital-gains tax.

Sellner knows he’s losing a step-up, but says, “The children could use a little more now. Why should they wait 20 years to get it?”

Disclaimers

A disclaimer is a highly useful strategy in which one heir renounces an inheritance in favor of another heir. Assuming family members cooperate, this can save taxes.

Here’s one example. Dad died and had a large traditional IRA that he left to Mom. She has enough assets and income to cover her expenses, and she lives in a state with a stiff estate tax. The inherited IRA would put her estate over the threshold.

Also surviving are three young-adult children. If Mom disclaims all or part of Dad’s IRA within nine months of his death, that amount could go directly to the children. They will have 10 years to empty the account, and the family as a whole will likely save estate and income taxes.

Disclaimers have many key details, especially regarding beneficiary documents. Although heirs have great freedom in choosing what assets to disclaim, the rules about who gets disclaimed property are rigid. It is best if the original owner names tiers of heirs so that if one disclaims, the next recipient is clear.

Gold Is at a Record High. Why It Is Set to Rise Even More.

Strong family financial planning can help reduce taxes and support younger generations. From intrafamily loans and asset gifts to inheritance disclaimers, strategic cooperation can create meaningful financial benefits—when families have the trust and structure to make it work.

Intrafamily loans

Asset gifts

Disclaimers