Beijing’s crackdown on millions of delinquent debtors makes catching up on unpaid bills a slog
6 min
FOSHAN, China—Qin Huangsheng once imagined a better life in the city when she left her home village to become a factory worker at age 16.
Now, in her early 40s, she has $40,000 in personal debt and a base salary of $400 a month. Debt collectors are hounding her. She is blocked from buying tickets on China’s high-speed rail, just one of the penalties the government is increasingly imposing on people who don’t pay their bills.
On the aging slow trains she is left to ride, Qin sometimes looks at the other passengers and thinks: “I wonder if they’re all bad debtors like me.”
People across China are being weighed down by their debts and a system that penalises them for not paying the money back. Beijing is cracking down on delinquent debtors by seizing their salaries or restricting them from getting government jobs, as well as curbing their access to high-speed trains and air travel. Many are forbidden from buying expensive insurance policies and told they aren’t allowed to go on vacation or stay in nice hotels. Authorities can detain them if they don’t comply.
The number of people on a publicly available government delinquency blacklist has jumped by nearly 50% since late 2019 to 8.3 million today. Courts can put people on the blacklist when they don’t fulfill judgments against them to pay money back or are deemed to be not cooperating with legal proceedings.
Unlike in the U.S., China doesn’t allow most people—including those who had a run of bad luck—to declare bankruptcy to write off bad debts and move on with their lives, a policy some Chinese scholars are criticising as unfair.
Household debt has surged by 50% in the past five years to around $11 trillion today. While that is lower than the $17.5 trillion Americans owe, it is a huge sum in a country where people earn far less.
With home prices falling, deflation risks becoming entrenched and unemployment a persistent challenge , Chinese leaders are eager to get people spending more. But each additional dollar going to pay for debt is taking away one that could be used to splurge on new clothes or pay for a vacation. The threat of punishment for falling behind on debt is making many families more conservative with their money.
Retail sales of consumer goods in China rose 4.7% year-over-year in the first quarter, the government said Tuesday, lagging behind total economic growth of 5.3%. As many in China curtail spending, the government is giving priority to turbocharging manufacturing and exports, a strategy that is exacerbating trade tensions with the West.
With so many Chinese consumers under financial pressure, Western companies including Apple , Estée Lauder and General Motors have reported weaker sales in China .
Chinese officials didn’t respond to questions about the blacklisting system. The government has said previously it only seeks to target those who have the ability to repay their debts but refuse to do so.
China’s long housing boom was a significant cause of the rise in personal debts, because many people had to borrow more to afford homes. Some buyers took on extra debt to buy more properties for investment purposes, sometimes letting them sit empty. Now that the boom is over and prices are falling , many are stuck with debts they can’t handle.
The number of foreclosed homes listed for sale rose 43% in 2023 to roughly 400,000 properties, according to real-estate research firm China Index Academy.
The increase in personal debts is also partly a result of more people using credit cards or tapping personal credit lines to handle expenses as the economy stagnates.
Many economists say a U.S.-style financial crisis is unlikely in China soon. State control of the banking system means the government can absorb losses and inject capital in an emergency. Household debts have also largely plateaued over the past two years, as many people give priority to using extra cash to pay down liabilities rather than shopping or investing in stocks.
Still, the prevalence of large personal debts is a problem for China’s leadership.
“Household debt booms tend to lead to bad macroeconomic outcomes, even in the absence of a financial crisis,” said Amir Sufi, a University of Chicago economist. China has no simple fix. “Once the cycle starts, it’s usually one in which it’s painful, long and difficult to predict when it will end,” Sufi said.
China has tried for years to lift personal spending to ease its economy’s traditional reliance on infrastructure and real-estate growth. Its banks issued tens of millions of new credit cards each year, with outstanding balances jumping 50% between 2018 and 2023 to well over $1 trillion. Private technology apps such as Alipay and WeChat also started helping consumers secure loans as their digital payment systems soared in popularity.
But when debts go unpaid, a person’s income can be seized by the state to cover their liabilities, leaving debtors with a small allowance to scrape by.
A 38-year-old man petitioned courts in the southern city of Guangzhou to raise his monthly allowance to 12,000 yuan, equivalent to around $1,600, from 9,500 yuan to help pay for a newborn child. Judges denied his request late last year, and instead concluded that his allowance should be cut by nearly 40% because he was already getting too much, court records show.
A black market has emerged to serve people on the blacklist. In one case, Shanghai authorities busted a ring of scalpers who were booking high-speed rail tickets on behalf of debtors who were barred from doing so themselves. In early 2021, authorities tracked down a debtor who had been using the service and took him into custody, according to a local court.
The current system gives priority to protecting creditors—often powerful, state-owned institutions—at the expense of helping struggling individuals. Scholars who study the issue say China urgently needs a nationwide personal-bankruptcy system to achieve leader Xi Jinping’s goal of making the country more equitable , by forcing creditors and debtors to share the costs of soured loans.
“A personal-bankruptcy system is a mechanism for the redistribution of wealth,” Li Shuguang, a scholar who has advised the government on bankruptcy policy, wrote in a Chinese magazine commentary online last summer.
Movement on the issue has been stymied in part by opponents who believe such a system would only encourage more people to shirk their debts.
For Qin, the former factory worker, easy access to credit backfired badly.
As a 16-year-old in 1999, Qin boarded an overnight bus from her home in rural southern China to the grimy manufacturing hub of Dongguan, north of Hong Kong.
Her parents, who are farmers, couldn’t afford a payment of less than $15 needed for her to take a high-school entrance exam. She vowed to make it on her own, and found work in factories producing slippers and golden jewellery.
A few years later, Qin secured her first credit card. With it, she bought a computer to teach herself to type so she could land a better job.
When the bill was paid, Qin said she tried to cancel the card. “Keep it for an emergency,” the bank clerk told her.
Qin’s career flourished and she eventually moved to the metropolis of Guangzhou. By 2010, she said, she was managing bidding for a company that supplied fire-safety equipment to real-estate projects. Her nest egg steadily grew from the lucrative commissions she earned in the property boom.
When the property sector slowed, she jumped industries. An acquaintance had been involved in a startup that was developing software to help small-business owners collect WeChat data to generate more foot traffic and aid marketing efforts.
Qin said she invested the equivalent of around $150,000 of her savings into the venture.
The startup burned through her initial investment as it tried to get the software up and running. Qin said she then agreed to start putting some of its expenses, including office supplies, rent and employee salaries, on her credit cards, and to tap personal credit lines she had obtained via WeChat and Alipay.
A roadshow by the company was warmly received, she said. But its prospects dimmed after the Covid pandemic hit.
The company’s struggles left Qin with the equivalent of tens of thousands of dollars of debt. Phone calls from debt collectors have become a daily occurrence.
With no option of bankruptcy, Qin concluded that a new job was her only way out of trouble.
“As long as I’m still living and have a life, I can work hard to earn the money back,” she said.
That path has faced unexpected difficulties. In 2021, while preparing for a business trip to Shanghai, more than 700 miles northeast of Guangzhou, Qin realised that she had lost her access to high-speed rail, where a government I.D. is required to buy a ticket. She took the slow train—and later quit that job in part because the travel restrictions were making it impossible.
Local officials didn’t respond to questions about Qin’s case and The Wall Street Journal wasn’t able to verify some details of her account.
Today, Qin is working in a shop in Foshan, south of Guangzhou, selling traditional Chinese medicines. With a base salary of about $400 a month, she has found it tough to put a dent in her debts, but said she has managed to pay back two of her credit cards so far, with about $40,000 still to go.
Qin is trying to stay optimistic, hoping that medicine will be in high demand as China’s population ages, opening the door to bonuses and potentially even running her own shop. Still, she has had to get creative to earn the cash to pay her debts.
Her current role requires Qin to collect payments from customers using a digital wallet on WeChat. But she said that function on her account has been frozen several times since 2022, leaving Qin to seek help from her family.
She decided not to tell her parents about the full scale of her troubles, however.
If they knew the truth, Qin said, they “wouldn’t be able to sleep.”
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Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.
4 min
For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.
Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.
Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.
Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.
Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.
Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.
Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”
Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.
For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.
The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.
The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.
Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.
“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.
Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.
For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.
Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.
Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.
Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.
“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”
Corrections & Amplifications
Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.
