It starts with an unsolicited text message. And then it’s all about gaining the victim’s trust.
5 min
Do you get unsolicited text messages from people you don’t know? Be forewarned: If you respond, you could be falling for a particularly dangerous online scam that has found victims around the world. Some unfortunate individuals have lost millions of dollars.
There is even a name for it. Pig butchering. Victims are fattened up, made to trust the scammer and think they are making tons of money, until they are mercilessly taken—sometimes for everything they have.
On June 6, at the WSJ Tech Live: Cybersecurity conference in New York City, two cybercrime experts sat down with Wall Street Journal reporter Robert McMillan to discuss how pig butchering works and what is being done about it. The participants were Troy Gochenour, an investigator with the Global Anti-Scam Organization, a nonprofit that helps victims and raises public awareness of scams, and Jamil Hassani, a supervisory special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation. An edited transcript of their conversation follows.
WSJ: Why “pig butchering”?
GOCHENOUR: It’s not our term. In Chinese, it is shā zū pán , or pig-killing plate. What makes this scam so effective is they want to build trust so that you might think they could be a potential love interest or a business partner. Once they built that trust, then they will start talking about how they’ve made a lot of money in cryptocurrencies and how the victim could, too.
WSJ: It’s a variation on the romance scam. Instead of asking for money to buy a plane ticket, they propose to make money together?
HASSANI: Absolutely. The rise in cryptocurrency has opened the door for these scammers to take your money instantaneously. There are no third parties doing the reconciliation. If you do a regular wire transfer and you contact the FBI within 72 hours, chances are we can get that money back for you. But with crypto, it’s almost immediate and it’s gone.
WSJ: Are you seeing more pig butchering because of the rise of crypto?
HASSANI: Absolutely. The rise since 2019 for victimisation is almost 2,000%.
WSJ: Why does it work?
GOCHENOUR: The social-engineering aspect is very powerful. I have stories that are very sad: folks who have been warned that they’re getting scammed, and yet, because they’ve been socially engineered so much, they actually continue to invest.
They’re looking for everybody, but they prefer people with titles—doctor, dentist, IT professional, CEO. I follow them on the communications platform Telegram, so I have a lot of their training documents, manuals on how they build those relationships. This is an entire industry tied to largely Chinese organised crime.
WSJ: Jamie, psychologically speaking, why does this work?
HASSANI: I remember arresting a hacker out of Tunisia. A 19-year-old kid that was able to bypass levels of security within the Department of Defense, took down a few banks and was wreaking havoc across the world. He explained to me: “Hackers are stupid. They go after the systems, when human beings have way more vulnerabilities. They have the keys to the treasure chest. And it’s so easy to turn off their mental firewall.”
Try to think of a time you were in a relationship where the threat of your spouse or significant other leaving caused you to do pretty much anything to keep them around. Every scam evokes an emotion. It could be love, fear, panic. Your ability to critically think is shut off.
WSJ: Sometimes when I’ve talked to scam victims, it’s like the more they have invested, the harder it is for them to believe they have been taken.
HASSANI: It’s the stigma. The victims can’t fathom that they could have been so stupid, quote unquote. So they hold on to this hope that it had to have been real, the love had to have been there, or the trust, because they’re texting every day, 30 to 100 times. The scammers use information they glean from your communications and social media to validate you in a way that no one else can.
WSJ: If you suspect or know somebody is a victim, is there something you can say that will snap them out of it?
GOCHENOUR: Unfortunately, people are people. We’ve had victims we’ve warned more than once, and they continued to give.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime says there could be as many as a couple hundred thousand of these scammers operating throughout Southeast Asia.
HASSANI: A lot of these scammers are trafficked human beings. When a human being is subjected to that kind of circumstance, their will to succeed is intense, because their life, or their family’s life, depends on it. They are constantly fine-tuning strategies, and trying to stay one step ahead of whoever is closest on their tail. These scammers contribute something like half of their country’s GDP, so the local government’s not going to do much.
WSJ: The FBI knows who’s running these scams, largely?
HASSANI: Yes, absolutely.
WSJ: Can you get them?
HASSANI: There are no treaties between those specific countries and the U.S. We’ve taken steps. We work with multiple organizations, including the Secret Service, Department of Homeland Security, and we’re applying pressure on these countries to start to take action.
WSJ: There are different layers of operators; some do the texting, others do the talking and then there are the video calls.
GOCHENOUR: Sure. So if you get that wrong number, the text to your phone, you respond, saying wrong number. I’m not Paul. Jane. Whoever. They say, oh, so sorry. Uh, my assistant gave me your number. I hope I’m not bothering you.
Sometimes they even send you a picture. That sounds interesting. So you continue to talk. Oh, what’s your name? Where do you live? What do you do?
They’re looking for a weakness. Are you single? Oh, weakness might be romance. Oh, you’re in business. I could be your business partner. But they also want to know what kind of assets they can take from you.
On their Telegram pages, I’ve seen screenshots of their chats. They can chat in Chinese, and it shows up to you as your native language. And when you chat back it shows up to them in Chinese. At the top, it would say your first name, maybe your age, two homes, 401(k).
As you continue to chat, you’re actually being sent to multiple people chatting with you on this one account. You may not even recognize it. They are all in the compound. Everything they do is monitored. So if that person is there against their will, if they don’t chat with you to lure you in, they could get beaten.
WSJ: This scam involves legitimate organizations as well, right? Cryptocurrency companies, the messages come on legitimate apps. What can be done to mitigate this?
HASSANI: Until a collective strategy is put together, you need to be aware of the red flags. And the first one is unsolicited contact. We’ve all gotten that text message, “hi.” That message has a fundamentally different feeling to somebody who is elderly and widowed and lonely. When they see “hi,” that has a profound impact on them.
If you get an unsolicited contact, ask questions. If they want you to invest in cryptocurrency, do a little research on the site. Is this website legit? Some are legitimate and registered with, say, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network or the Securities and Exchange Commission.
WSJ: Some of the scam sites actually register.
HASSANI: True. Most of them aren’t registered with the SEC, but a lot are.
GOCHENOUR: In 2021, 2022, they were using apps like MetaTrader 5 or 4, a foreign-exchange trading app. It’s legitimate. You could go on this app and think you’re doing something legitimate, but you’re sending money to their scam broker website.
WSJ: Why can’t you stop these guys?
HASSANI: They’ll have one major domain with multiple subdomains, so to speak. So as soon as we take that website down, another one pops up. Our strategy is to go after the kingpin.
WSJ: Have you hit any kingpins yet?
HASSANI: We have. The indictments, a lot of them are still under seal. But tech-support scams are a big part of this. We took down three tech-support buildings near Kolkata less than a year ago.
WSJ: All connected to pig butchering?
HASSANI: Yes, and they do the same thing—traffic human beings to scam.
WSJ: Scammers use services like WhatsApp, and the money gets sent to them often through a legit crypto company. Could the tech companies be doing more here?
GOCHENOUR: The tech companies and the exchanges are doing more. And I know that because when I follow the scammers on their chats, they talk about, “Why can’t I get this money? The victim put it in the account, but I can’t get it. What’s going on?”
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Subsidised minivans, no income taxes: Countries have rolled out a range of benefits to encourage bigger families, with no luck
7 min
Imagine if having children came with more than $150,000 in cheap loans, a subsidised minivan and a lifetime exemption from income taxes.
Would people have more kids? The answer, it seems, is no.
These are among the benefits—along with cheap child care, extra vacation and free fertility treatments—that have been doled out to parents in different parts of Europe, a region at the forefront of the worldwide baby shortage. Europe’s overall population shrank during the pandemic and is on track to contract by about 40 million by 2050, according to United Nations statistics.
Birthrates have been falling across the developed world since the 1960s. But the decline hit Europe harder and faster than demographers expected—a foreshadowing of the sudden drop in the U.S. fertility rate in recent years.
Reversing the decline in birthrates has become a national priority among governments worldwide, including in China and Russia , where Vladimir Putin declared 2024 “the year of the family.” In the U.S., both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have pledged to rethink the U.S.’s family policies . Harris wants to offer a $6,000 baby bonus. Trump has floated free in vitro fertilisation and tax deductions for parents.
Europe and other demographically challenged economies in Asia such as South Korea and Singapore have been pushing back against the demographic tide with lavish parental benefits for a generation. Yet falling fertility has persisted among nearly all age groups, incomes and education levels. Those who have many children often say they would have them even without the benefits. Those who don’t say the benefits don’t make enough of a difference.
Two European countries devote more resources to families than almost any other nation: Hungary and Norway. Despite their programs, they have fertility rates of 1.5 and 1.4 children for every woman, respectively—far below the replacement rate of 2.1, the level needed to keep the population steady. The U.S. fertility rate is 1.6.
Demographers suggest the reluctance to have kids is a fundamental cultural shift rather than a purely financial one.
“I used to say to myself, I’m too young. I have to finish my bachelor’s degree. I have to find a partner. Then suddenly I woke up and I was 28 years old, married, with a car and a house and a flexible job and there were no more excuses,” said Norwegian Nancy Lystad Herz. “Even though there are now no practical barriers, I realised that I don’t want children.”
Both Hungary and Norway spend more than 3% of GDP on their different approaches to promoting families—more than the amount they spend on their militaries, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Hungary says in recent years its spending on policies for families has exceeded 5% of GDP. The U.S. spends around 1% of GDP on family support through child tax credits and programs aimed at low-income Americans.
Hungary’s subsidised housing loan program has helped almost 250,000 families buy or upgrade their homes, the government says. Orsolya Kocsis, a 28-year-old working in human resources, knows having kids would help her and her husband buy a larger house in Budapest, but it isn’t enough to change her mind about not wanting children.
“If we were to say we’ll have two kids, we could basically buy a new house tomorrow,” she said. “But morally, I would not feel right having brought a life into this world to buy a house.”
Promoting baby-making, known as pro natalism, is a key plank of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ’s broader populist agenda . Hungary’s biennial Budapest Demographic Summit has become a meeting ground for prominent conservative politicians and thinkers. Former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson and JD Vance, Trump’s vice president pick, have lauded Orbán’s family policies.
Orbán portrays having children inside what he has called a “traditional” family model as a national duty, as well as an alternative to immigration for growing the population. The benefits for child-rearing in Hungary are mostly reserved for married, heterosexual, middle-class couples. Couples who divorce lose subsidised interest rates and in some cases have to pay back the support.
Hungary’s population, now less than 10 million, has been shrinking since the 1980s. The country is about the size of Indiana.
“Because there are so few of us, there’s always this fear that we are disappearing,” said Zsuzsanna Szelényi, program director at the CEU Democracy Institute and author of a book on Orbán.
Hungary’s fertility rate collapsed after the fall of the Soviet Union and by 2010 was down to 1.25 children for every woman. Orbán, a father of five, and his Fidesz party swept back into power that year after being ousted in the early 2000s. He expanded the family support system over the next decade.
Hungary’s fertility rate rose to 1.6 children for every woman in 2021. Ivett Szalma, an associate professor at Corvinus University of Budapest, said that like in many other countries, women in Hungary who had delayed having children after the global financial crisis were finally catching up.
Then progress stalled. Hungary’s fertility rate has fallen for the past two years. Around 51,500 babies have been born there this year through August, a 10% drop compared with the same period last year. Many Hungarian women cite underfunded public health and education systems and difficulties balancing work and family as part of their hesitation to have more children.
Anna Nagy, a 35-year-old former lawyer, had her son in January 2021. She received a loan of about $27,300 that she didn’t have to start paying back until he turned 3. Nagy had left her job before getting pregnant but still received government-funded maternity payments, equal to 70% of her former salary, for the first two years and a smaller amount for a third year.
She used to think she wanted two or three kids, but now only wants one. She is frustrated at the implication that demographic challenges are her responsibility to solve. Economists point to increased immigration and a higher retirement age as other offsets to the financial strains on government budgets from a declining population.
“It’s not our duty as Hungarian women to keep the nation alive,” she said.
Hungary is especially generous to families who have several children, or who give birth at younger ages. Last year, the government announced it would restrict the loan program used by Nagy to women under 30. Families who pledge to have three or more children can get more than $150,000 in subsidised loans. Other benefits include a lifetime exemption from personal taxes for mothers with four or more kids, and up to seven extra annual vacation days for both parents.
Under another program that’s now expired, nearly 30,000 families used a subsidy to buy a minivan, the government said.
Critics of Hungary’s family policies say the money is wasted on people who would have had large families anyway. The government has also been criticised for excluding groups such as the minority Roma population and poorer Hungarians. Bank accounts, credit histories and a steady employment history are required for many of the incentives.
Orbán’s press office didn’t respond to requests for comment. Tünde Fűrész, head of a government-backed demographic research institute, disagreed that the policies are exclusionary and said the loans were used more heavily in economically depressed areas.
Government programs weren’t a determining factor for Eszter Gerencsér, 37, who said she and her husband always wanted a big family. They have four children, ages 3 to 10.
They received about $62,800 in low-interest loans through government programs and $35,500 in grants. They used the money to buy and renovate a house outside of Budapest. After she had her fourth child, the government forgave $11,000 of the debt. Her family receives a monthly payment of about $40 a month for each child.
Most Hungarian women stay home with their children until they turn 2, after which maternity payments are reduced. Publicly run nurseries are free for large families like hers. Gerencsér worked on and off between her pregnancies and returned full-time to work, in a civil-service job, earlier this year.
She still thinks Hungarian society is stacked against mothers and said she struggled to find a job because employers worried she would have to take lots of time off.
The country’s international reputation as family-friendly is “what you call good marketing,” she said.
Norway has been incentivising births for decades with generous parental leave and subsidised child care. New parents in Norway can share nearly a year of fully paid leave, or around 14 months at 80% pay. More than three months are reserved for fathers to encourage more equal caregiving. Mothers are entitled to take at least an hour at work to breast-feed or pump.
The government’s goal has never been explicitly to encourage people to have more children, but instead to make it easier for women to balance careers and children, said Trude Lappegard, a professor who researches demography at the University of Oslo. Norway doesn’t restrict benefits for unmarried parents or same-sex couples.
Its fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman has steadily fallen from nearly 2 in 2009. Unlike Hungary, Norway’s population is still growing for now, due mostly to immigration.
“It is difficult to say why the population is having fewer children,” Kjersti Toppe, the Norwegian Minister of Children and Families, said in an email. She said the government has increased monthly payments for parents and has formed a committee to investigate the baby bust and ways to reverse it.
More women in Norway are childless or have only one kid. The percentage of 45-year-old women with three or more children fell to 27.5% last year from 33% in 2010. Women are also waiting longer to have children—the average age at which women had their first child reached 30.3 last year. The global surge in housing costs and a longer timeline for getting established in careers likely plays a role, researchers say. Older first-time mothers can face obstacles: Women 35 and older are at higher risk of infertility and pregnancy complications.
Gina Ekholt, 39, said the government’s policies have helped offset much of the costs of having a child and allowed her to maintain her career as a senior adviser at the nonprofit Save the Children Norway. She had her daughter at age 34 after a round of state-subsidised IVF that cost about $1,600. She wanted to have more children but can’t because of fertility issues.
She receives a monthly stipend of about $160 a month, almost fully offsetting a $190 monthly nursery fee.
“On the economy side, it hasn’t made a bump. What’s been difficult for me is trying to have another kid,” she said. “The notion that we should have more kids, and you’re very selfish if you have only had one…those are the things that took a toll on me.”
Her friend Ewa Sapieżyńska, a 44-year-old Polish-Norwegian writer and social scientist with one son, has helped her see the upside of the one-child lifestyle. “For me, the decision is not about money. It’s about my life,” she said.
