Australia’s Job Market Remains Tight in July

SYDNEY—Australia’s unemployment rate rose in July to its highest level since late 2021 even as employment jumped by much more than expected over the month, with a record number of people participating in the labor market.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The economy created a further 58,200 jobs over the month, with full-time employment rising by 60,500, the ABS said. The employment creation was about three times that expected by economists.

The apparent mismatch in the data is explained by a rise in the labour market participation rate to a record high 67.1% in July from 66.9% in June.

Overall, the data suggests the job market remains tight, which will feed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s fears about the availability of labor, wage pressures and sticky core inflation over the coming quarters.

RBA Gov. Michele Bullock ruled out an interest-rate cut over the next six months citing concerns that inflation remains stubbornly high, while firms are reporting the job market is still tight.

The employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to 64.3%, indicating employment growth was faster than population growth, the ABS said.

“Although the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point in each of the past two months, the record high participation rate and near record high employment-to-population ratio show that there continues to be a high number of people in jobs, and looking for and finding jobs,” the ABS said in a statement.

The number of people unemployed increased to 637,000 in July, the highest it has been since November 2021, but it remains around 70,000 below its pre-pandemic level, ABS added.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked rose by 0.4%, in line with the 0.4% increase in employment, the ABS said.

Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.

The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.

Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.

A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.

Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.

Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .

Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.

Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.

The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.

The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.

Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.