One of Monet’s First Water Lily Paintings to Highlight Christie’s Asia Sale

Christie’s is selling a painting from Claude Monet’s earliest Nymphéas series at the first evening auction taking place in its new Hong Kong headquarters this fall.

Nymphéas (Water Lilies), painted circa 1897-99, is among seven works by the French impressionist that were his first forays into exploring variations in light, colour, and reflections in the water lily pond at his home in Giverny, France.

The work, which Christie’s said is being offered from an anonymous private collection after remaining with the Monet family for years, is expected to sell for between US$25 million and US$35 million.

Christie’s Cristian Albu, head of 20th/21st-century art for Asia Pacific, called the painting “a true singular treasure.” It’s about 2 feet, 4 inches by 3 feet, 3 inches in size.

Monet created more than 250 paintings of waterlilies in his lifetime, several of which have sold for record sums at auction. Last November, Le bassin aux nympheas , 1917-19, sold for US$74 million, with fees, at Christie’s in New York. (Estimated auction prices don’t include fees).

The highest price for a Nymphéas was set during Christie’s sale of the Peggy and David Rockefeller Collection , fetching nearly US$85 million, with fees.

What’s notable about the work Christie’s is selling in Asia is that it’s among Monet’s first to focus on waterlilies, and that it introduces what the auction house said is “one of the most important and radical aspects of his Nymphéas —the elimination of a horizon line.” As with many of these works, the viewer looks directly at the pond’s centre, “removing all other peripheral details to focus entirely on the constantly shifting relationships between water, atmosphere, and light that transformed the pond’s surface with each passing moment.”

Other examples from Monet’s first water lilies series can be found in the Musée Marmottan Monet in Paris, the Los Angeles County Museum of Art, the Kagoshima City Museum of Art in Kagoshima, Japan, and the Galleria Nazionale d’Arte Moderna in Rome.

The Hong Kong sale, which will take place on Sept. 26, will be Christie’s first at its new Asia-Pacific headquarters in the Henderson, a newly built 39-floor skyscraper by Zaha Hadid Architects with a curved glass facade.

Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.

It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.

The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.

Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.

A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.

Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.

Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .

Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.

Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.

The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.

The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.

Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.