Investments in renewables continue to outpace fossil fuels, a BloombergNEF report finds
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Zero-carbon technologies comprised more than 40% of global electricity generation for the first time in 2023, according to a report released Tuesday from BloombergNEF.
Renewable energy sources like wind and solar made up 17% of total electricity generation, and hydroelectric and nuclear power contributed 24%. Fossil fuels including coal and natural gas produced 57% of global electricity last year.
“We’ve consistently seen the penetration of renewables rising every year, and this year we hit quite a few milestones that had felt harder to reach in past years,” said Meredith Annex, head of clean power at BNEF.
One such milestone: Solar and wind represented more than 90% of global energy capacity additions last year, a step up from 2022. Global wind capacity also crossed the one-terawatt threshold. And Brazil, the country with the cleanest power mix of the G-20 economies, hit 88% renewable power generation in 2023.
“It just shows the momentum that the space is having. A lot of that does tie into the investment story, where you’ve got rising—skyrocketing, honestly—investment into solar,” Annex said.
Mainland China accounted for almost a third of total renewable energy output last year. The country recently reached its 2030 target for wind and solar energy six years early, according to a statement from its National Energy Administration, and it has pulled back on permits for new coal-fired power plants. The country’s rapid deployment of renewables has some analysts wondering if it will reach peak fossil fuel consumption this year. Declining emissions in China would signal a turning point because it is the world’s largest polluter, comprising nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.
Despite rapid growth in renewables, countries’ current commitments aren’t sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to the IEA. Advanced economies would need to slash emissions by 80% by 2035 to meet the goal.
At last December’s COP28, a global climate conference hosted by the United Nations, participating countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. BNEF has forecast that achieving this goal would require investments in renewables to increase to 1.6 times 2023 levels from 2024 to 2030.
So far, that increase hasn’t materialised. Global investments in renewables are roughly on par with 2023 levels, at $313 billion in the first half of 2024, according to the new BNEF analysis. “We’re expecting steady growth, but steady growth does not get you to net zero,” Annex said.
The topline numbers obscure bigger changes under the surface. Average spending in the U.S. is up by about 63% compared with levels before the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which offers generous subsidies and tax breaks to promote decarbonisation. And while Chinese investment is actually down 4% from the same period in 2023, Annex said the dip is due to cheaper equipment for wind and solar, not a decline in demand.
The second half of this year will be a “defining moment,” for the investment landscape, Annex said. Steady growth “is definitely a positive, and it could be a sign that the industry as a whole is reaching a new kind of status quo, but we need to help expand even faster if we’re going to be in line with net zero.”
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Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.
It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.
The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.
Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.
A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.
Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.
Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .
Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.
Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.
The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.
The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.
Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.
