Developers behind the world’s largest planned green hydrogen project hope a growing global thirst for emission-free fuels will pay dividends.
6 min
Can a multibillion-dollar project in the Saudi desert jump-start the demand for green hydrogen, an elusive energy source that could help eliminate carbon emissions from vehicles, power plants and heavy industry?
The allure of hydrogen is undeniable. Unlike oil and natural gas, it doesn’t emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when burned. It’s more easily stored than electricity generated by wind turbines and solar farms, and it can be transported by ship or pipeline. Green hydrogen, which is produced using renewable energy sources, is especially attractive as a fuel. It’s made from water rather than methane or other hydrocarbons.
But those who foresee a green hydrogen future face a quandary: The high cost of producing the odourless, colourless, flammable gas can be mitigated only by large-scale projects, which in turn make economic sense only if there is a widespread market for green hydrogen. That doesn’t yet exist.
In Neom, a planned megacity of the future now taking shape in northwestern Saudi Arabia, the investors behind the green hydrogen project think they can deliver the chicken and the egg.
The initiative—a joint venture of Neom, U.S. chemical company Air Products & Chemicals Inc., and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power—will invest $5 billion to build what will be the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility. Another $2 billion will be invested in distribution infrastructure in consumer markets around the world, primarily to fuel industrial vehicles and public buses.
Plans call for the sprawling facility, which isn’t yet under construction, to produce 650 tons of green hydrogen a day starting in 2025. The facility’s output will dwarf that of a green hydrogen plant in Québec that produces about nine tons a day, making it the largest such facility in the world. The Neom project exemplifies the Kingdom’s ambitious plan to diversify away from oil and natural gas and showcase Neom as a global hub for technology and green energy.
One of Neom’s main advantages in what could become a global race to develop green hydrogen is that the city’s location along the Red Sea possesses world-class solar and wind power, according to Peter Terium, head of Neom’s energy sector. Solar will power the plant during the day, wind at night, he says.
It isn’t easy to find a site with strong enough wind and sun, as well as proximity to a port, Mr. Terium says. “Otherwise, we wouldn’t be the first to announce an investment of this size,” he says.
Other countries are following suit. Australia, for example, has expedited the approval of a $36 billion project in the Outback in the western part of the country that will generate 26,000 megawatts of renewable electricity to be used to power the green hydrogen production.
Most hydrogen made for commercial use is so-called grey hydrogen, which is produced by splitting the hydrocarbon molecules in coal or natural gas. This process emits carbon. Green hydrogen, on the other hand, emits no carbon because it relies upon a process called electrolysis, in which electricity is used to strip hydrogen atoms from water molecules.
Air Products is the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, most of which now is derived from fossil fuels. But through its involvement with Neom, the Allentown, Pa.-based corporation is betting big that many countries will pay a premium for green hydrogen to meet carbon reduction targets, according to chief executive Seifi Ghasemi.
The Neom project aims to produce enough hydrogen to fuel about 20,000 buses a day. But rather than being piped or shipped to end users as gaseous or liquid hydrogen, the hydrogen will first be converted into ammonia, which is denser and therefore more economical to ship. After being sent by boat to Asia, the U.S. and Europe, the ammonia will be converted back into hydrogen before being sent to filling stations built by Air Products.
“The only thing [the customer] has to do is buy fuel cell vehicles to use the hydrogen,” Mr. Ghasemi says. “Hydrogen will become, 30 years from now, like oil is today.”
It’s a bold prediction that would require significant changes to the way we use fuel and electric power. Not all experts see that happening because of the sheer cost and magnitude of redesigning energy infrastructure around the world. That would require changing everything from vehicles to household applications.
Such a world would look markedly different. Filling stations would dispense hydrogen instead of gasoline. Hydrogen could be piped into homes to feed heaters and gas stoves. And unlike wind or solar, it could provide a steady supply of electricity for large power users, such as data centres and manufacturing hubs, when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.
If it can be scaled, green hydrogen could also help solve several big challenges in a lower-carbon economy: powering heavy-duty trucks and ships without reliance on giant batteries, providing round-the-clock electricity to supplement intermittent supplies from wind and solar and decarbonizing heavy industrial processes including steel and concrete manufacturing.
Julio Friedmann, a senior research scholar at Columbia University, says green hydrogen’s diverse applications could help it become the “Swiss Army knife” of the green energy economy, as states and countries pledge to reach net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades.
Among energy nerds, hydrogen has long been the butt of a joke: It’s the fuel of the future, and probably always will be. The most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen has seen rounds of hype before, most recently in the early 2000s, when it was promoted as a transportation fuel amid fears about declining reserves of fossil fuels.
Some investors remain deeply sceptical of hydrogen, citing its high cost and the inevitable challenges of building infrastructure necessary to deploy it at scale. Kerrisdale Capital, a New York-based investment firm, is shorting shares in a fuel-cell maker whose share price has skyrocketed this year alongside other fuel-cell and alternative-energy stocks in the hope that the companies will be big players in a “hydrogen economy.” Fuel cells use chemical reactions to produce electricity from hydrogen and oxygen.
“The ‘hydrogen economy’ will never happen,” the firm wrote in a research note. “Hydrogen energy will have only very niche use cases.”
Increased regulation of greenhouse gases, growing investor pressure on companies to reduce carbon emissions and technological advances have many thinking the hydrogen hype is real this time. Management consulting firm McKinsey & Co. estimates that hydrogen could account for 14% of power used in the U.S. by 2050, from next to nothing today.
Another factor in the heightened interest in green hydrogen is the steep decline in the price of renewable energy, which Mr. Friedmann says now accounts for 50% to 70% of the cost of green hydrogen. The cost of building wind and solar farms has fallen in recent years as technology costs have declined and more projects are built at scale. Wind and solar now rival natural gas as the lowest-cost means of power generation.
“You are going to see a lot of countries and states going after hydrogen,” Mr. Friedmann says.
Along with the Neom partners, other investors big and small are betting that green hydrogen is finally positioned to realize its full potential. Global expenditures on hydrogen projects are projected to top $400 billion between now and 2030, followed by more than $2 trillion in spending from 2030 to 2050, investment bank Evercore ISI estimates.
Some auto makers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., are developing vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells, which convert the fuel into electricity.
Several major utility companies, meanwhile, are looking into running power plants on hydrogen instead of natural gas, which is now the nation’s primary fuel for electricity generation. Unlike wind and solar farms, gas plants can run all the time, or fire up quickly to meet peak demand.
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the nation’s largest municipal utility, is spearheading a $1.9-billion effort to convert a coal-fired power plant in Utah to run on natural gas and hydrogen produced with wind and solar power.
In northwestern New Mexico, developers are planning to spend up to $2 billion on a hydrogen-fueled power plant to serve electricity customers throughout the West starting in 2024. The Libertad Power Project, as the plant initiative is known, will use so-called blue hydrogen, which is produced by carbon-capture technology, before transitioning to green hydrogen as it becomes cheaper and more widely available. Carbon capture involves catching the carbon atoms upon production and storing them so they can’t enter the atmosphere.
For all its promise, green hydrogen faces many hurdles. These include the intermittence of solar and wind power and the high cost of electrolyzers, complex systems that traditionally have required large capital investments but which are now falling in price. Despite declines in the cost of renewable energy, green hydrogen production plants will need high utilisation rates, or almost round-the-clock power, to make them profitable.
Hydrogen is hard to store in gaseous form and is expensive to liquefy, which is why the Neom project plans to convert it to ammonia for transport. It can also weaken metal on contact, making it difficult to transport via pipeline unless it is blended with natural gas or other substances.
Columbia’s Mr. Friedmann says the barriers to widespread use of green hydrogen are related not to technology but to infrastructure. Governments and companies will need to invest heavily in power grids, ports, pipelines and fueling stations that can accommodate hydrogen. The costs of doing that will be borne across the global economy if governments implement sound public policy to drive market investment, he says.
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Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.
4 min
For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.
Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.
Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.
Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.
Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.
Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.
Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”
Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.
For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.
The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.
The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.
Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.
“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.
Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.
For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.
Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.
Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.
Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.
“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”
Corrections & Amplifications
Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.
