“Don’t Fear A Crash”: Dr Andrew Wilson
A rapid fire tete-a-tete with the leading Australian economist and founder of My Housing Market.
By Terry Christodoulou
Wed, Apr 21, 2021 8:59am
3 min
3 min
Kanebridge News: Let’s cut straight to it – your response to the almost daily diatribe being espoused by the naysayers in regards to the national housing market, specifically Sydney, and predictions about its alleged imminent failure?
Dr Andrew Wilson: Such attention-seeking crash predictions have consistently proved to be wrong in the past, and will again prove just as wrong this time. The prospect for the preconditions for falling house prices – sharp increases in interest rates – has never been more remote.
KN: How do you view market movement in the major capitals the next 12 months?
AW: Strong growth in all capitals – Melbourne, Sydney and Perth top performers all likely higher by 10%. Price’s growth will likely decline over the year as affordability falls through higher prices with flat interest rates and low incomes growth.
KN: And the residential rental market?
AW: Lower vacancy rates and higher rents for houses compared to units generally across the board.
KN: Perennial question then – advice for those trying to get into the property market this year?
AW: Maximise your buying potential. Be prepared to compromise. Be prepared to be disappointed. Consider buying first and then selling. As always, consult a financial advisor.
KN: How important is data use in property and how can a novice best apply such sets in regards to a purchase?
AW: Reliable, real-time data provides the foundation for property decision making – enhanced by objective, rational commentary that joins the dots.
KN: What do you see as the most important data consideration(s) when assessing movement in a specific market?
AW: Local supply and demand factors, matched with the overarching macroeconomic drivers and real-time market activity measures of prices and volumes.
KN: Clearance rates across the country, specifically Sydney, have recently hit record highs — how do you analyse such numbers, given this is unprecedented?
AW: The Sydney market is responding to high levels of affordability with prices – despite recent strong growth – still at the levels of four years ago. Over that period mortgage rates have fallen by over 1% and incomes have increased by over 6%, giving buyers the capacity to pay more for property. With credit restrictions and coronavirus impediments now eased – the market has clear air to catch up.
KN: Your take on why we’re a property engaged culture?
AW: High aspiration for home ownership and investment underpinned by a strong financial sector and enhanced taxation benefits.
KN: To those that might not know you – you formerly worked as a chief economist for the Domain group, Australian Property Monitors before launching My Housing Market.
AW: Well, my background is in the science and philosophy of housing market economics — I was an academic researcher and lecturer at RMIT University before I worked my way to chief economist at Domain Group and, now, running my own offering and analytics through My Housing Market.
KN: What was the impetus to launch My Housing Market – and how does the platform differentiate itself from what else is out there?
AW: My Housing Market combines high-level, comprehensive, real-time data insights into property markets with detailed, credible and reliable expert commentary. The ‘what’ and the ‘why’.
KN: What is it about property that you’re drawn to?
AW: I have to live somewhere.
KN: Well played …
Kanebridge News uses real-time data supplied by My Housing Market.
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The US housing market remains under pressure as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and demand. Industry leaders say 2026 has been one of the toughest years for home sales, with slower price growth, weaker mortgage activity, and fewer buyers entering the market. However, experts say reduced competition and more price cuts could create opportunities for well-prepared buyers.
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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.
