Art Is a Rising Focus for Wealth Managers and Family Offices

The value of art and collectibles owned by the world’s wealthiest individuals totalled nearly US$2.2 trillion as of last year, an amount that could grow to nearly US$2.9 trillion by 2026, according to recent analysis from wealth management advisor Deloitte Private and ArtTactic, a research and analysis firm.

Yet, the art market overall has grown only 0.6% annually since 2008, failing to keep up with inflation, and with the surge of growth in overall global wealth. Deloitte Private—a division of U.K.-based Deloitte—and London-based ArtTactic said in the eighth edition of their biennial Art & Finance Report. That means there are many more wealthy people who could own art. The report proposes an intriguing reason for the stunted growth: The fact that more than three-quarters of auction sales are generated by the work of a little more than 1% of all artists.

“We can assume that only a small percent of art buyers are behind these transactions, which leaves us with a heavy concentration around a small number of artists and buyers—plus a small number of art professionals (galleries, auction houses, etc.),” the report said. “Could this be one of the main reasons for the art market’s overall lackluster growth in the last decade?”

The more than 400-page report, which examines trends and developments at the intersection of art and wealth management, is informed by surveys with private wealth managers and this year, with several family offices, where art and collectibles comprise 13.4% of client assets—five percentage points more than at private banks.

“While art and collectibles provide portfolio diversification and potential value appreciation, they often are a more personal investment with emotional ties to the family’s interests and preferences,” Wolf Tone, the global leader of Deloitte Private, said in the report.

Overall, 89% of wealth managers in addition to collectors and art professionals who were also surveyed, believe “art and collectible wealth should be part of a wealth management offering,” up from 65% that said so in the first Art & Finance survey in 2011. One reason art is touted as an investment option is its value doesn’t move in sync with traditional market instruments; another reason is the perception that the art market’s performance has been relatively strong compared with measures such as the S&P 500—a broad measure of U.S. stocks.

Fine art indexes developed by New York-based Artnet Worldwide Corp. reveal a more nuanced picture. In the five years up to the first half of 2023, the compound annual growth rate for fine art was a negative 0.4% compared with a 10.4% gain for the S&P 500, according to Artnet. Looking at individual investing categories, European Old Masters recorded a 1.6% CAGR in that period, while global post-war art (by those born between 1911 and 1944) posted a CAGR of 1.4%. Over 10 years, the CAGR for fine art overall was only 0.1% compared with a 10.7% gain for the S&P 500, according to Artnet.

Artnet analysts noted in the report, however, that art—as a physical asset—is a better hedge against inflation than traditional market instruments, such as stocks, which are valued according to the expected future cash flows of their underlying businesses. Fine art returns rose 4.2% between January 2022 and July 2023 compared with a 6.6% decline in the S&P 500.

“Despite a spike in inflation and higher interest rates, art prices suffered less than other asset classes during this period of economic stress, demonstrating the asset class’ ability to serve partially as an effective hedge, especially regarding the blue-chip, high-end fine art category,” the report said.

Though the report confirmed that most people still buy art because they like it—60% of collectors are driven by art’s “emotional value,” consistent with past years—financial factors are rising in importance. For the first time, 41% of collectors surveyed said their primary motivation for buying art was financial, overtaking “social value” as the second-ranked motivation. One reason is that younger collectors are largely driven by financial considerations: 83% cite potential investment returns as a key reason to buy art, up from 50% in the last survey in 2021.

Of those surveyed, 61% also cited portfolio diversification as a driver and 51% said art can be a safe haven in uncertain times, up from 34% in 2021. “This tells us about how the new generation of collectors may relate to art as an alternative capital asset class, both now and in the future,” the report said.

The rise of art investment vehicles, particularly fractional-art platforms that allow individuals to buy a share in a painting as they would a share of stock, are another factor: 50% of younger collectors are interested in fractional ownership, up from 43% in 2021, the report said. The most popular way to buy art remains just that—directly buying a piece, according to 88% of collectors and 83% of art professionals. Yet fractional ownership is making inroads, particularly as more initiatives offer options that are supervised by regulators in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

Though resistance remains, the report said the emergence of these platforms “could allow art and collectible assets to be more easily integrated into asset management allocation strategies in the future.”

For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.

Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.

Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.

Lowered Expectations

Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.

Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.

Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.

Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”

Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.

Behind the Malaise

For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.

The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.

The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.

Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.

Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.

“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.

Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.

For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.

Sticking Around

Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.

Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.

Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.

“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”

Corrections & Amplifications

Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.

Art Is a Rising Focus for Wealth Managers and Family Offices

Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.

Lowered Expectations

Behind the Malaise

Sticking Around