Asics Stock Catches Fire Along With Its Dad Sneakers

The running-shoe maker’s stock price has quadrupled in total return terms over the past two years. Its financial performance is strong: Revenue in its last reported quarter grew 14% from a year earlier while its operating profit surged 53%.

Asics has long been a well-loved brand among the running community. Around a quarter of 54,000 runners who finished the Paris Marathon sported a pair of Asics, including both winners in the men’s and women’s races, according to the company.

In fact, even Nike can trace its roots back to the Japanese company. Nike began its business in the 1960s by importing and distributing shoes from Asics, then known as Onitsuka, in the U.S. Onitsuka Tiger remains a high-end fashion brand within Asics.

Asics has benefited from the Covid-19 pandemic: More people picked up running as a hobby when they had nothing else to do. At the same time, people working from home began giving priority to comfort in their footwear—discovering that lightweight shoes with cushioned soles designed for running are pretty comfortable for walking around in, too. Running-shoe upstarts such as Hoka and On Holding have also seen explosive growth in the past few years. Hoka’s sales in the quarter ended in March surged 34% from a year earlier, pushing shares of its owner , Deckers Outdoor , to record highs.

The performance running shoes segment is Asics’ largest by revenue, and it has tried to maintain a close-knit community of runners. Asics acquired Runkeeper, a popular fitness-tracking app among runners, in 2016. In recent years, it has been acquiring race-registration companies, including Njuko Sas in Europe and Register Now in Australia. Its loyalty program has nearly 15 million members globally.

But outside of runners and Onitsuka Tiger, Asics was perhaps best known for “dad sneakers” —a style of shoes that are picked more for practicality than aesthetics. Lately, however, some old Asics designs have become unlikely fashion symbols. Youngsters have apparently eschewed conventional beauty standards and embraced the uncool: Crocs and Hoka are some other examples of “ugly shoes” that have seen an explosion in popularity .

Asics has done its fair bit, too. Its collaboration with designers from Vivienne Westwood to Cecilie Bahnsen have generated lots of buzz on social media. For example, its redesign of its 2008 Gel-Kayano 14 sneaker with Canadian design studio JJJJound has been a smash hit . The shoe can sell for more than $1,000 on online marketplace StockX. Asics was the fifth most-traded brand on StockX last year, rising from No. 10 the year before. Revenue for the company’s more fashion-minded SportStyle division grew 52% year over year in the last reported quarter.

Even better news for investors is that the company has been more profitable, too. Operating margin in its quarter ended in March was 19.4%, compared with 9.5% two years earlier. Partly that is because the company has shifted its product mix to more premium products. It has also been selling more directly to customers than through wholesalers. Around 64% of its sales were through wholesale in the first quarter, down from 74% three years earlier. E-commerce sales have risen from 13% to 17% of sales.

Asics trades at 34 times forward earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That is a similar multiple as Deckers Outdoor but higher than bigger peer Nike, which trades at 25 times. The premium could be justified if Asics could keep growing its sales with better margins.

Asics is sprinting ahead. It still has room to run.

Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.

For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.

The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.

Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.

“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.

Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.

Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.

Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.

“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.

Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.

“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”

Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.

Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”

The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.

The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.

These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.

Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.

Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.

Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.

And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.

“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”

Asics Stock Catches Fire Along With Its Dad Sneakers

Shares in the Japanese running-shoe maker have just about quadrupled

Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.