China’s Neighbours Shouldn’t Cheer On Its Slowdown

China’s economic troubles have so far been a boon to other Asian markets. But if the world’s second largest economy continues to turn sour, things could start to look uglier for them too.

Major Asian stock markets have been doing well in 2023. Japan’s Topix index has gained 24% this year while Taiwan’s Taiex index has risen 18% and Korea’s Kospi is up 15%. That is in contrast to Chinese stocks: the MSCI China index has dropped 6%, despite a strong start of the year.

There are some fundamental reasons why Asian stocks outside of China have gone up. Buybacks and dividends are rising in Japan, while Warren Buffett’s endorsement gave the market another push. The hope of an eventual rebound in the semiconductor industry has lifted stocks in Taiwan and South Korea. But these markets also benefited from foreign investors fleeing Chinese stocks: markets such as Japan and South Korea have seen foreign inflows in recent months. Some multinationals have also been migrating manufacturing out of China and into other Asian countries to diversify their supply chains.

However, Goldman Sachs has noted that correlations between China and other markets in the region have risen lately, indicating potential concerns of spillover.

China is the top trading partner of many countries in the region like Japan and South Korea, and weak demand from China could ripple through to its neighbours. South Korea’s exports to China, accounting for roughly 20% of its total, fell 25% year on year in the first eight months of this year.

And falling investment in China—especially in the real-estate sector—could weigh on commodity prices. So far prices of commodities such as iron ore have been resilient this year as demand from sectors like autos and infrastructure have softened the blows from property construction. But commodity-exporting nations such as Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia could suffer if Chinese investment remains weak.

The confidence crisis in China could also hurt companies selling to the country’s consumers. The number of Chinese tourists, in particular, is still way down from pre-Covid levels for many countries like Japan and Thailand.

As China is the economic juggernaut in the region, the country’s pain is unlikely to be its neighbors’ gain for long.

Feeling depressed when the stock market is down? You have plenty of company. According to a recent study, when stock prices fall, the number of antidepressant prescriptions rises.

The researchers examined the connection by first creating local stock indexes, combining companies with headquarters in the same state. Academic research has shown that investors tend to own more local stocks in their portfolios, either because of employee-stock-ownership plans or because they have more familiarity with those companies.

The researchers then looked at about 300 metropolitan statistical areas, which are regions encompassing a city with 50,000 people and the surrounding towns, tracking changes in local stock prices and the number of antidepressant prescriptions in each area over a two-year period. They found that when local stock prices dropped about 12.8% over a two-week period, antidepressant prescriptions increased 0.42% on average. A similar relationship was seen in smaller stock-price drops as well. When local stock prices fell by about 6.4%, antidepressant prescriptions increased about 0.21%.

Older and sadder

“Our findings suggest that as the stock market declines, more people experience stress and anxiety, leading to an increase in prescriptions for antidepressants,” says Chang Liu , an assistant professor at Ball State University’s Miller College of Business in Muncie, Ind., and one of the paper’s co-authors. The analysis controlled for other factors that could influence antidepressant usage, like unemployment rates or the season.

In a comparison of age groups, those aged 46 to 55 were the most likely to get antidepressant prescriptions when local stocks dropped.

“People in this age group may be more sensitive to changes in their portfolio compared with a younger cohort, who are further from retirement, and older cohorts who may own less stocks and more bonds since they are nearing retirement,” says Maoyong Fan , a professor at Ball State University and co-author of the study.

Other correlations

When the authors looked at demand for psychotherapy during periods of declining stock prices their findings were similar. When local stock prices dropped by about 12.8% over a two-week period, the number of psychotherapy visits billed to insurance providers increased by about 0.32%. They also found a correlation between local stock returns and certain illnesses associated with depression, such as insomnia, peptic ulcer, abdominal pain, substance abuse and myocardial infarction. But when the authors looked at other insurance claims, like antibiotics prescriptions, they found no relationship with changes in local stock prices.

By contrast, for periods when stocks rise, the authors didn’t see a drop in psychological interventions. They found no statistical relationship between rising local stock prices and the number of antidepressant prescriptions, for example, which the authors believe makes sense.

“Once a patient is prescribed an antidepressant, it’s unlikely that a psychiatrist would stop antidepressant prescriptions immediately,” says Liu.

One practical implication of the study, Liu adds, is that investors should be aware of their emotional state when the market dips before they make investment decisions.

China’s Neighbours Shouldn’t Cheer On Its Slowdown

Asian markets have been rallying even as China falters, but that may not last

A new study finds that is particularly true for people nearing retirement.

Older and sadder

Other correlations