A list of new commandments for money management.
4 min
J. Pierpont Morgan would be proud that many of the historical tenets of the asset- and wealth-management industry still form the bedrock of how money is managed in modern times. The fund’s 150-year track record is a testament to our industry’s founding principle: While the world may change, clients’ desire for investment expertise and personalised service won’t.
With that in mind, here are 10 key themes that we look forward to helping our clients navigate in the future.
1) Price. Ever since I entered the asset-management industry, sceptics have warned that fee pressure will destroy profitability and detract top talent from the profession. Fees in every industry compress at some point. Successful firms of the future will thrive by either providing commodity-like products at scale for near-zero cost, or delivering hard-to-access insights and exposures that command a premium. Our industry must strive for continuous improvement on both ends of the spectrum.
2) Scale is a matter of survival. With compressed pricing, heavy regulatory controls, and immense spend on data, analytics, and risk-management tools, firms need a relentless focus on operational efficiency, a rigorous control framework, and a disciplined prioritization process around investments for the future. In this context, scale is key. Mergers and acquisitions and outsourcing of sub-scale and noncore capabilities to service providers will enable smaller firms to refocus their efforts back into their most important asset: talent.
3) Actively advising clients. If we learned anything from the Covid-19 crisis, it is the need for sound advice in volatile times. During that time, thousands of actively managed funds outperformed their passive alternatives across asset classes and portfolios. While markets may be efficient, manager selection is key and clients need guidance. The average industry return of a balanced portfolio over the past two decades was 6.4% annually, while the actual experience of the average retail investor was only 2.9%, a stark reminder of how critical hands-on advice is.
4) Impact and purpose. Portfolio managers and research analysts have become essential for investors seeking to make an impact in the world through their assets. Over 80% of surveyed CIOs expressed intent to invest in environmentally and socially conscious companies. Analyzing CEOs and their management teams is no longer just about inquiring about their financial and operational expertise and vision, but also about the impact they make on their communities and the planet. Rising demand for companies that drive positive change will create a virtuous cycle of asset allocation for good.
5) Personalization. Today’s investors want to be intentional, not passive, in investing. They care about taxes and want to overweight companies that can make a difference. They want to avoid whole sectors, or actively own and vote on a company’s strategic plans. Giving clients the freedom to pursue their very specific objectives in a highly customized manner will continue to drive innovation in our industry.
6) Stable and predictable incomes. Millions of investors around the world have come to rely on their investment portfolios as a stable source of income. With individuals enjoying longer life spans and more active lifestyles, especially during retirement years, asset managers need to adapt their strategies to provide for a stable and predictable flow of income every month. Along the same lines, saving needs to start at a young age. Today, less than 40% of Americans have enough savings to pay for an unexpected $1,000 expense in cash. It is our collective responsibility to educate and advise on what is required to cover all of life’s events and milestones.
7) Understanding China. The pandemic has highlighted the interconnectivity of the world and how important China is to supply chains and new innovations. Against this backdrop, it is irresponsible to be a fiduciary of client capital and not have a deep understanding of places like China. It is hard to imagine having a true grasp of competitive global forces without on-the-ground insights of the economies, cultures, and politics of re-emerging global marketplaces. After 100 years of being on the ground in China, J.P. Morgan is poised to become the first foreign asset manager to acquire full ownership of a Chinese fund manager, pending regulatory approval. That kind of commitment will contribute massively to our global research network.
8) Technology drives everything. To adapt to the velocity of progress and change, technology is providing our industry access, speed, and agility like never before. With more technologists than Google and Facebook combined, J.P. Morgan invests over $12 billion annually in technology to help empower our clients and employees to work faster and more seamlessly in ever-changing markets. We need to be forward thinking and have the ability to be a disruptor. Agile, collaborative partnerships between technologists and their businesses will drive innovation and speed to market at an exponential pace.
9) Access. With a global footprint and a full suite of investment vehicles, asset managers must continue to focus on enabling first-time investors to invest in previously inaccessible areas. We are finding ways to provide more opportunities, more choice, and more power to people. Investments once only available to the largest investors in the world are now being accessed by the everyday investor. Democratization of markets should create better outcomes for investors of all sizes.
10) A new flexibility. Our industry adapted quite seamlessly to a previously unimaginable work-from-home scenario. As such, increased flexibility will broaden talent pools and should promote greater diversity. While never losing the apprenticeship nature of our business, we should continue to find new ways of working with one another to generate even greater success.
In coming years, the industry’s winners will remain obsessed about their fiduciary responsibilities. As stewards of capital, the ability to leverage technology and scale to deliver the same extraordinary experience for every investor, with $100 or $100 million, is now within reach.
Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 14, 2021.
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Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall stock market due to shifting odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and other macro challenges.
3 min
The stock market had a decent summer. Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall.
In the past couple of months, equity investors cheered soaring profits at big companies, shrugged off jitters in the bond market and nudged megacap tech shares back near records.
Now, as the post-Labor Day stretch begins, a number of new challenges lie ahead: ever-shifting odds of an interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Sky-high expectations after a stunning earnings season. The persistent threat of higher consumer prices as fighting in the Middle East drags on.
“You’re moving from this earnings-driven market to this macro-driven market with the Fed, inflation and interest rates in focus,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment adviser for Truist Advisory Services. “It tends to be a choppier period.”
Historically, every major U.S. stock index experiences its worst average return in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid an average 1.1% in the ninth month of the year, in data that dates back to the 19th century. The S&P 500 has seen the same average decline—and for every September dating back to 1928, the benchmark ends the month lower more than half of the time.
Analysts caution against reading too much into those seasonal patterns. But in recent weeks, new reasons for investor caution have emerged. One of the largest: the looming threat of an interest-rate increase from the Fed, which announces its next policy decision on Sept. 16.
Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to ditch forward guidance and take more of his cues from markets has muddied the waters for investors when it comes to monetary policy. That has left traders scouring Fed governor speeches and economic-data reports for clues on the central bank’s next move.
“There’s going to be a lot of eyes on those numbers,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.
The past couple of weeks offered just one example of how frequently those expectations can change. After Warsh struck a hawkish tone during remarks on Aug. 28, the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next meeting jumped from 35% before the speech to 58%, according to CME FedWatch data.
On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made a case for leaving rates where they are. Interest-rate futures showed coin-flip odds between a hike and a hold. Then Friday’s robust jobs report amped up rate-hike bets once more, back to a roughly 60% chance of higher rates after the meeting.
“Rates have really been driving the car for equities the last few weeks,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.
That uncertainty comes as an unruly bond market could put pressure on stocks. Treasury yields have marched higher for much of the summer, driven by concerns about rising oil prices, growing U.S. budget deficits and a deluge of tech-company bonds now competing for investors’ cash. Last week, the rout went global, pushing yields to multiyear highs in Japan, Germany and the U.K.
Higher bond yields can drag on stock prices and lift borrowing costs for companies and consumers across the economy.
Rising prices remain the top concern for bond traders, and continued fighting between the U.S. and Iran has done little to ease those worries. The national average price of diesel climbed to a record of $5.850 on Friday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.712 a year ago.
Investors will get more insight on the path of prices this week, with the much-awaited consumer-price index report due Friday and a reading on producer prices Thursday.
With another blockbuster earnings season in the books, some analysts have also warned that any boost from the third-quarter reports due in the coming months could be minimal. Back-to-back quarters of standout profits have raised expectations and made it especially difficult to impress traders. Custom-chip company Broadcom, for example, said Wednesday that it more than tripled its earnings and nearly doubled its revenue. Shares slipped 2.7% the next session.
Many analysts note there are plenty of reasons not to panic. The economy is in impressive shape, thanks to a healthy labor market and the rippling effects of the artificial-intelligence investment boom. Profits are booming at America’s biggest companies. The Cboe Volatility Index has dropped to its lowest levels of 2026. Credit spreads are tight, a sign bond investors aren’t concerned about economic conditions that could hurt companies.
But the mood has shifted from the euphoria that felt tangible when the Nasdaq was notching back-to-back records early this summer. The question, Mayfield said, is whether the fundamentals that have bolstered the bull market so far can stretch the rally into 2027.
“There are more anxieties or uncertainties about the backdrop,” he said. “It does feel like a transitional moment.”
