Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spurred funding of tech that could boost Europe’s quest for energy security
4 min
Venture capitalists’ appetite for energy and artificial-intelligence investments is putting Europe’s venture sector on a hot streak.
European governments’ focus on energy security amid heightened geopolitical tensions has helped spur a capital rush, investors and analysts say. That coupled with the emergence of Europe-based AI startups, which can be less expensive than their U.S. counterparts, is also drawing investors.
European startups raised $15.5 billion in the second quarter, up 14% from the first quarter and up 12% from the same quarter of last year, according to Europe-based analytics firm Dealroom.co. Meanwhile, the amount invested into North American startups rose 9.6% in the second quarter from the prior quarter while Asia deal value rose 6.4% over the same period.
Energy was the most funded sector in Europe in the first half of the year, netting $5.7 billion, while funding raised by AI startups accounted for a record 18% of venture funding in Europe, up from about 11% in 2021, Dealroom.co said. Before last year, energy startups typically raised less capital than fintech, health and enterprise software startups.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred European governments—which were historically dependent on Russian fossil fuels—to develop greater energy security. Support has reached startups in the form of grants and other government-backed investment opportunities.
“It has been a major shift,” said Orla Browne , head of insights at Dealroom.co. “The exposure of energy-security issues with the invasion of Ukraine has filtered down to startups.”
Large AI deals have also drawn capital to Europe. In May, Wayve, a U.K.-based developer of autonomous driving software, raised $1 billion from investors including SoftBank Group , chip maker Nvidia and Microsoft . In June, French startup Mistral AI raised $646 million from investors including the venture arm of software giant Salesforce , General Catalyst and Lightspeed Venture Partners.
In Europe, investors say they can scoop up shares of startups for less money compared with the prices that their counterparts in the U.S. command. Meanwhile, Europe’s technical universities are supplying promising entrepreneurs, particularly in the AI field.
“We have hired a world-class team at salaries that cost 30% or less than you would get for a similar team in [Silicon Valley] with the caliber being as good,” said Dominic Vergine , chief executive of Monumo in Cambridge, England, which uses AI to make electric motors more efficient.
Europe’s climate regulations have also helped attract funding for energy startups, for example the European Commission’s Innovation Fund.
Danijel Višević, co-founder of Berlin-based World Fund, said funding from countries like Germany and France as well as from the European Union helped push more capital into climate startups. “Europe has started to reap the rewards of the fruits it sowed with climate tech R&D,” said Višević.
He added that given the long-term effects of climate change, funding in the sector is likely to be stable, both from venture-capital firms and governments, for years to come.
Even so, Europe’s venture sector faces some headwinds. In the second quarter, the continent saw $2.2 billion in exits, a third fewer than in the same quarter a year ago and 93% under the second quarter of 2021, a banner year for exits worldwide, according to a report by professional-services firm KPMG. Exits include initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions and are the primary way venture investors cash out of their startup investments.
High interest rates, which typically encourage investors to divert capital away from venture to fixed-income strategies, have also hurt the industry. European startups’ second-quarter haul is far below the record $34.6 billion they netted during the same quarter of 2021.
Investors are eager for a turnaround. Last year, Planet First Partners, which has offices in London and Luxembourg, raised a €450 million fund, equivalent to $485 million, in part on the thesis that Europe’s favorable climate regulations are a financial tailwind for energy startups.
In March, the firm invested in Sunfire, a German startup developing hydrogen energy technology aimed at reducing reliance on fossil-based energy from oil, gas and coal. The investment came as part of a €215 million Series E equity funding round and included an additional term loan of up to €100 million from the European Investment Bank.
Sergio Carvalho , a partner and head of sustainability at Planet First Partners, said the firm has invested in Sunfire in part for its potential to help Europe become more energy independent. PFP’s first investment in Sunfire was before the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe has been pushing decarbonization systematically,” Carvalho said.
Last year, Sunfire received €169 million from a European Union initiative that funds projects that address EU-wide challenges.
In July, Index Ventures, which was founded in Europe and has offices in London, San Francisco and New York, raised $2.3 billion in new funds—an $800 million venture fund and a $1.5 billion growth fund. Hannah Seal , an Index partner in London who focuses on enterprise AI deals, among other sectors, said she expects roughly half of the venture fund to be used to invest in startups that are based in Europe.
“The first half of this year was one of the busiest we’ve ever had,” Seal said about AI dealmaking in Europe. “We’re seeing a general stabilisation in the global economy which is obviously impacting sentiment.”
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Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.
4 min
For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.
Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.
Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.
Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.
Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.
Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.
Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”
Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.
For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.
The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.
The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.
Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.
“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.
Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.
For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.
Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.
Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.
Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.
“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”
Corrections & Amplifications
Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.
