Cosy silhouettes and sumptuous fabrics were throughlines of the fashion collections shown last week in Milan
3 min
“Quiet luxury” has become a bit of a dirty phrase in Milan. To some at the Italian brands that embody the term , it’s reductive—an overly TikTok-ified way of describing classic, refined clothing. Many fashion industry people roll their eyes when it comes up.
Brunello Cucinelli , one of the kings of natural textiles, prefers the term “gentle luxury.” At his fall presentation in Milan this past week, the (extremely expensive) clothing at which he excels looked especially touchable. Cashmere sweatsuits were layered with blanket-like scarves and silky suiting hung in loose pleats. Even an evening look, composed of a black sweater tucked into a feathered skirt, appeared comfy. Holding a pillowy bag, one Brunello disciple called it “accogliente”—Italian for “cozy.”
One step beyond coziness is protection, and there was plenty of that in Milan, too. Chalk it up to an uncertain luxury market , the roiling geopolitical climate or global warming, but using clothing as a sanctuary seemed to be on many designers’ minds. For some, like the excellent Brioni La Donna and Loro Piana collections, that means impeccable tailoring and forever-worthy double-breasted coats. Others, like Luke and Lucie Meier at Jil Sander, took the cocooning more literally, making succulent, quilted floor-length capes.
Not everyone is swaddling themselves in shearling. Architect Bianca Censori, who joined her companion, the rapper Ye, at the Marni show, wore a mere scrap of leather that failed to cover her buttocks among other body parts. No protection needed—except her bodyguard.
Miuccia Prada and Raf Simons, the co-creative directors of Prada, are on quite a roll. If you were feeling hyperbolic, you might even say that they’re making fashion history. The duo’s fall collection started with thinking about love, explained Simons backstage, but “all the elements of love,” including loving your home, or even loving your sheets. There’s that theme of comfort again.
That manifested in a romance for different eras of fashion, remixed: A Jackie O. linen shift dress shot through with a streak of shearling. A leather bomber jacket embellished with “1913,” the year Prada was founded. A twin set in shocking red and ultraviolet. High-tech nylon jackets in midcentury couture shapes.
“There is no way to think about the future unless you have a good understanding of the past,” said Simons.
In less than four years, Matthieu Blazy has completely renewed Bottega Veneta, making it a cult spot for creative types that want unique clothing and accessories with plenty of craftsmanship. Without succumbing to naked dresses and other revealing gimmicks, the brand appeals to a broad demographic, as shown by front-row neighbours Julianne Moore, 63, and A$AP Rocky, 35.
The fall collection, Blazy said backstage, was a “celebration of the everyday.” He found himself thinking about the allure of everyday clothing on his nightly dog walks. This meant recognizable pieces like peacoats, skirts and sweaters, reduced to their essential essence but rendered fabulous through textile innovation and fabrication. A simple yellow evening dress had a shirred-fabric fraying (not unlike recent work by Phoebe Philo ) and a long column skirt boasted leather plumes.
Blazy wanted to express resilience, he said, like flowers blooming in the desert. Fittingly, he designed giant Murano glass cactus flowers to decorate the show space.
Real life crept into the fashion bubble on the day of Jil Sander’s show, when guests were confronted with a triple-whammy of rain, traffic and multiple public protests that closed the streets. Supermodel Mariacarla Boscono, like several models and editors, had a harrowing trip from Dolce & Gabbana to Jil Sander, and was swept right into hair and makeup and then onto the runway. Wearing the first look, a cocoon-like rounded red suit, Boscono was worth the wait.
Jil Sander put forward an extensive 68-look collection chock-full of satisfyingly sumptuous pieces. Chunky knitwear was sheathed in fine netting, tailored pieces were lined in silky quilting. Coats in deer leather and Himalayan goat fur looked like outerwear for an Icelandic wedding.
At conservative Italian stalwart Tod’s, Matteo Tamburini executed an impressive debut. Upon arriving from Bottega Veneta in December, the first thing Tamburini discussed with Tod’s group boss Diego Della Valle was the need to create “desirable objects.” “You don’t want to have a big fashion show and then find nothing in the store,” said Tamburini after the show.
So in just a few short months, Tamburini was able to create a tightly edited women’s collection full of androgynous separates and light, appealing accessories. Stylist Brian Molloy, who’s also worked with The Row and Hermès , worked magic with restraint. One supersoft foldable tote big enough for a laptop had a slit at the top so it could fit under your shoulder—easy stuff that merits a high price tag.
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What a quarter-million dollars gets you in the western capital.
Alexandre de Betak and his wife are focusing on their most personal project yet.
4 min
U.S. investors’ enthusiasm over Japanese stocks at this time last year turned out to be misplaced, but the market is again on the list of potential ways to diversify. Corporate shake-ups, hints of inflation after years of declining prices, and a trade battle could work in its favor.
Japanese stocks started 2024 off strong, but an unexpected interest-rate increase in August by the Bank of Japan triggered a sharp decline that the market has spent the rest of the year clawing back. Weakness in the yen has cut into returns in dollar terms. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF , which isn’t hedged, barely returned 7% last year, compared with 30% for the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund .
The market is relatively cheap, trading at 15 times forward earnings, about where it was a decade ago, and events on the horizon could give it a boost. Masakazu Takeda, who runs the Hennessy Japan fund, expects earnings growth of mid-single digits—2% after inflation and an additional 2% to 3% as companies return more to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
“We can easily get 10% plus returns if there’s no exogenous risks,” Takeda told Barron’s in December.
The first couple months of the year could be volatile as investors assess potential spoilers, such as whether the new Trump administration limits its tariff battle to China or goes wider, which would hurt Japan’s export-dependent market. The size of the wage increases labor unions secure in spring negotiations is another risk.
But beyond the headlines, fund managers and strategists see potential positive factors. First, 2024 will likely turn out to have been a record year for corporate earnings because some companies have benefited from rising prices and increasing demand, as well as better capital allocation.
In a note to clients, BofA strategist Masashi Akutsu said the market may again focus on a shift in corporate behavior that has begun to take place in recent years. For years, corporate culture has been resistant to change but recent developments—a battle over Seven & i Holdings that pits the founding family and investors against a bid from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard , and Honda and Nissan ’s merger are examples—have been a wake-up call for Japanese companies to pursue overhauls. He expects a pickup in share buybacks as companies begin to think about shareholder returns more.
A record number of companies have also delisted, often through management buyouts, in another indication that corporate behavior is changing in favor of shareholders.
“Japan is attracting a lot of activist interest in a lot of different guises, says Donald Farquharson, head of the Japanese equities team for Baillie Gifford. “While shareholder proposals are usually unsuccessful, they do start in motion a process behind the scenes about the capital structure.”
For years, money-losing businesses were left alone in large corporations, but the recent spate of activism and focus on shareholder returns has pushed companies to jettison such divisions or take measures to improve them.
That isn‘t to say it is going to be an easy year. A more protectionist world could be problematic for sentiment.
But Japan’s approach could become a model for others in this new world. “Japan has spent the last 30 to 40 years investing in business overseas, with the automotive industry, for example, manufacturing a lot of the cars in the geographies it sells in,” Farquharson said. “That’s true of a lot of what Japan is selling overseas.”
Trade volatility that hits Japanese stocks broadly could offer opportunities. Concerns about tariffs could drag down companies such as Tokio Marine Holdings, which gets half its earnings by selling insurance in the U.S., but wouldn’t be affected by duties. Similarly, Shin-Etsu Chemicals , a silicon wafer behemoth that sells critical materials, including to the chip industry, is another potential winner, Takeda says.
If other companies follow the lead of Japanese exporters and set up shop in the markets they sell in, Japanese automation makers like Nidec and Keyence might benefit as a way to control costs in countries where wages are higher, Farquharson says.
And as Japanese workers get real wage growth and settle into living in an economy no longer in a deflationary rut, companies focused on domestic consumers such as Rakuten Group should benefit. The internet company offers retail and travel, both of which should benefit, but also is home to an online banking and investment platform.
Rakuten’s enterprise value—its market capitalization plus debt—is still less than its annual sales, in part because the company had been investing heavily in its mobile network. But that division is about to hit break even, Farquharson says.
A stock that stands to benefit from consumer spending and the waves or tourists the weak yen is attracting is Orix , a conglomerate whose businesses include an international airport serving Osaka. The company’s aircraft-leasing business also benefits from the production snags and supply-chain disruptions at Airbus and Boeing , Takeda says.
An added benefit: Its financial businesses stand to get a boost as the Bank of Japan slowly normalizes interest rates. The stock trades at about nine times earnings and about par for book value, while paying a 4% dividend yield.
Corrections & Amplifications: The past year is expected to turn out to have been a record one for corporate earnings in Japan. An earlier version of this article incorrectly gave the time frame as the 12 months through March. Separately, Masashi Akutsu is a strategist at BofA. An earlier version incorrectly identified his employer as UBS.
