Future Returns: Investing In the Soaring Energy Sector
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Future Returns: Investing In the Soaring Energy Sector

The sector came roaring back to life late last year on positive vaccine news.

By Karen Hube
Wed, May 19, 2021 10:47amGrey Clock 4 min

Energy has transitioned from the worst- to best-performing sector in a matter of months. How long is it likely to outperform? And which companies are most promising for investors?

Serious difficulties for the energy sector began in April 2020. Demand screeched to a halt under pandemic lockdowns, and the futures prices on the global benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) cratered to negative territory for the first time. The per-barrel price plummeted from US$18 to negative US$37 due to oversupply as Covid-19 crippled industry and mobility around the globe.

But the sector came roaring back to life late last year on positive vaccine news and surged through this year’s first quarter, as successful vaccine rollouts enabled relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions and economic activity rekindled.

In the first quarter, many big oil companies banked a profit for the first time since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, investors have been soundly rewarded. Through last week, the energy sector was up 35% this year compared to 9.5% for the S&P 500.

Bull or Bear?

Sam Halpert, Philadelphia-based chief investment officer at Macquarie Investment Management who oversees the firm’s natural resources equity strategy, views the recent outperformance as a cyclical bull market in the context of a secular bear market for the sector.

“The bull market could last two or three years, but there are still long-term issues around hydrocarbon and the energy transition that will impact the sector,” Halpert says.

The energy sector was under pressure even prior to the pandemic as investors were increasingly hesitant to commit capital as an inevitable transition from fossil fuels to greener choices loomed.

Lack of capital flowing into energy companies focused on shale technology is a hindrance to oil production. “Investors have not been willing to finance shale, there’s been a decrease in investment and production,” Halpert says. “Production was 11 million barrels a day last week, and we peaked at 13.1 million barrels a day in March 2020.”

Pressure on the sector isn’t likely to let up. In fact, the transition from the U.S.’s reliance on fossil fuels to low-carbon energy alternatives has renewed political momentum under President Joseph Biden, who supports policies that elevate greener alternatives and aims for the U.S. to have a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Investors’ decline in interest in energy has been steady and notable. In 1980, the sector accounted for almost 30% of the index. By 2019 the percentage was 5.3% and this it slipped to 2.33%.

While energy will clearly be impacted over the long term by fundamental changes, “there are a lot of companies that can benefit during the transition and are changing the way they do things,” Halpert says. “They’re becoming more environmentally friendly or changing business slightly to areas that have more growth, and the market is rewarding that.”

Consolidation Boom

Some of the best opportunities are among companies that are not only accommodating environmental factors in the way they do business, but that are sound enough to be gobbling up smaller players in what has been a highly fragmented industry.

The consolidation has been rapid: For example, in late 2019, Parsley Energy of Midland, Texas, acquired Denver-based Jagged Peak. Since then, Parsley was acquired by Pioneer Natural Resources of Irving, Texas, which in May completed the acquisition of Midland, Texas-based DoublePoint Energy.

A central region for the consolidation boom is the Permian Basin, a 75,000-square-mile region from West Texas to Southeastern New Mexico. With rich oil reserves discovered some dozen years ago, it now accounts for more than one-third of oil production in the U.S. Just two years ago the Permian Basin unseated Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oilfield as the biggest producer in the world.

“There have been too many players, many with marginal acreage or fields they’re developing,” says Geoffrey King, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Macquarie. As investor capital has declined, many of the smaller players have struggled.

King looks for opportunities among companies with sustainable practices that are in position to buy the smaller players. They’re benefiting from strengthened commodity prices and a perked-up demand.

“They have the ability to not only develop and maintain a growth rate comparable to the overall average S&P 500 growth rate, but to deliver excess cash to shareholders,” King says. “The model is being proven out and we’re in inning two or three.”

Veteran Industry Players

Among biggest holdings in Halpert’s and King’s institutional strategy is Plano, Texas-based Denbury (DEN), one of their few small-cap names that focuses on producing carbon negative barrels oil through carbon sequestration, which is the process of capturing and storing carbon dioxide.

“As people talk more about carbon sequestration, this is the game in town,” King says. “A lot of industrial companies don’t want to deal with the complexity of storing carbon. We think this is a very unique small-cap story that’s underappreciated.”

Another is Valero, the San Antonio-based largest independent refiner in the U.S.

“It has best-in-class assets and best-in-class management team,” Halpert says. “They’ve done a really good job returning capital to shareholders over the last several years.”

The company recently entered into an agreement with Darling, which processes waste such as from meat processing plants and the leftover oil from restaurants and food businesses. Valero transforms the waste into the fuel equivalent of ethanol.

“It has the identical chemical properties as ethanol, but ethanol has constraints around usage. It’s tough in the cold weather because it can cause engines to clog,” Halpern says. “Valero’s product is a low carbon fuel and low cost to produce.”

Another noteworthy holding is the big oil service company Schlumberger (SLB), based in Houston but with a global reach. “It’s involved in lithium, carbon sequestration, and a number of technologies that will be important in the energy transition,” Halpert says.

While there are numerous new entrants to the energy transition play, “we prefer to play it with a company with a balance sheet like Schlumberger and the technology of Schlumberger.”

Reprinted by permission of Penta. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 18, 2021



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Platforms are paying less for popular posts, brands are pickier about partnerships and a possible TikTok ban looms

By SARAH E. NEEDLEMAN
Wed, Jun 19, 2024 9 min

Many people dream of becoming social-media stars like YouTube’s MrBeast or TikTok’s Charli D’Amelio . But for most who pursue careers as content creators, just making ends meet is a lofty goal.

Clint Brantley has been a full-time creator for three years, posting videos on TikTok, YouTube and Twitch where he comments on news and trends related to the online game “Fortnite.” Despite having more than 400,000 followers, and posts that average 100,000 views, his income last year was less than the median annual pay for full-time U.S. workers in 2023—$58,084, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Clint Brantley, a full-time creator, draws an average of 100,000 views for his ‘Fortnite’-related videos on TikTok, YouTube and Twitch. PHOTO: RAJAH BOSE FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The 29-year-old is hesitant to commit to an apartment lease because the money he gets, mainly from online tips and sponsorship deals, arrives randomly and could vanish at any moment. For now, he’s living with his mom in Washington state.

“I’m vulnerable,” he says.

Earning a decent, reliable income as a social-media creator is a slog—and it’s getting harder. Platforms are doling out less money for popular posts and brands are being pickier about what they want out of sponsorship deals. The real possibility of TikTok potentially shutting down in 2025 is adding to creators’ anxiety over whether they can afford to stick with the job for the long haul.

Few overnight sensations

Hundreds of millions of people around the globe regularly post videos and photos to entertain or educate social-media users. About 50 million earn money from it, according to a 2023 report from Goldman Sachs . The investment bank expects the number of creator-earners to grow at an annual rate of 10% to 20% through 2028, crowding the field even further. The Labor Department doesn’t track wages for these creators, also known as influencers.

It can take months or years to earn money as a creator, often through a combination of direct revenue from social-media platforms, sponsorship deals, merchandise sales and affiliate links. But those who stick with it eventually see some returns, surveys show. Creators say that’s because you can learn what kind of posts most resonate with an audience, which can lead to more followers and, in turn, more moneymaking opportunities.

But money doesn’t mean big bucks . Last year, 48% of creator-earners made $15,000 or less, according to NeoReach, an influencer marketing agency. Only 13% made more than $100,000.

The gap reflects multiple factors, including whether creators work full- or part-time, the kind of content they put out and when they started. People who jumped into the space during the height of Covid-19 lockdowns—and who focused on a niche such as fashion, investing or lifestyle hacks—say they benefited from the surge in social-media use during that time.

A small number of creators shot to fame, propelling the occupation to the top of career wish lists for many teens (and adults). But behind the scenes, creators say the job is gruelling. They need to constantly produce compelling posts or risk losing momentum. They spend their days planning, filming and editing posts while also working to make inroads with advertisers and interacting with fans.

“It is a lot more work than most people realise,” says Emarketer analyst Jasmine Enberg. “Creators who make a living doing it have been at it for many years. Most are not overnight sensations.”

Like other self-employed professionals, creators don’t get paid time off, healthcare benefits, retirement contributions and other perks that companies typically provide for their workers. That reality, coupled with stubbornly high inflation and mortgage rates , is making it more difficult to get by as a creator.

Brantley works on editing a coming video. The online tips and sponsorship deals that make up his income can be erratic, so for now the 29-year-old continues to live with his mom in Spokane, Wash. PHOTO: RAJAH BOSE FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

“Everything is more expensive, especially groceries,” says Jason Cooper of Mobile, Ala.

A few years ago, Cooper dreamed up a sassy sock puppet named Sock Cop, who cracks dad jokes in live and recorded videos for TikTok and Twitch. He currently makes $500 to $600 a month, almost entirely from tips.

He thinks he could probably haul in a lot more if he went full-time. But with no guarantee, the 37-year-old father doesn’t want to quit his marketing job and risk losing health coverage. He now spends a few hours in the evening and on weekends on Sock Cop. If he had more time, he would feel the need to constantly make videos.

“You’ve got to feed the beast,” says Cooper.

Shrinking platform payouts

TikTok’s $1 billion creator fund, which ran from 2020 to 2023, doled out money to eligible creators for posting to the platform. Others joined in. YouTube’s TikTok competitor, Shorts, allowed creators to earn anywhere from $100 to $10,000 a month with its temporary fund. Instagram’s Reels Play bonus program rewarded creators with fluctuating payouts. Snapchat ’s Spotlight rewards program gave $1 million a day to the platform’s top creators.

Today, the platforms have revamped or completely changed how they pay creators—doing away with their funds.

Qualifications for TikTok’s current rewards program include having an account with at least 10,000 followers with a minimum of 100,000 views in the past month. Instagram is currently testing a seasonal, invitation-only program that rewards creators for sharing Reels and photos.

YouTube debuted an ad-revenue share model last year, in which qualifying creators with more than 1,000 subscribers and 10 million public Shorts views in the past 90 days receive 45% of revenue from ads that occur between posts. Snapchat has a program that gives creators who meet certain criteria, such as having at least 50,000 followers and 25 million monthly views, a portion of the ad revenue that appears between Stories. Its Spotlight program also continues to dole out money to creators.

Creators who opt into these programs or bonuses aren’t guaranteed a significant payday.

Yuval Ben-Hayun originally became popular on TikTok in 2020 because of his posts about the word-puzzle game Wordle. The 29-year-old New Yorker eventually expanded into linguistic and other education content, and by early 2023, was able to support himself and his bills of over $4,000 a month.

TikTok had closed its fund by then but was testing its creator rewards program. Ben-Hayun said in March he received about $200 to $400 per million views, and it’s steadily declined since then—even as his follower count reached 2.9 million.

The followers are still there, but the money isn’t. He recently hit a new low, receiving only $120 for a video with 10 million views.

Danisha Carter uses her phone and a ring light to create content for her TikTok channel, where she has 1.8 million followers. PHOTO: JESSICA PONS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

Danisha Carter is frustrated that TikTok and other platforms sold the idea of content creation as a job, but later withdrew the financial incentives. Thanks to creators’ efforts, she says, consumers are now hooked on social feeds, bringing the platforms billions of dollars in annual revenue.

The 26-year-old has 1.8 million TikTok followers, and her posts about beauty and exercise, along with opinions on topics ranging from dating to online bullying, regularly receive hundreds of thousands of views. TikTok has paid her a total of $12,000, Carter says. She sells merchandise for additional income, bringing in about $5,000 last year.

“Creators should be paid a fair percentage based on what the apps are making off creators,” says Carter. “There should be more transparency into how we’re paid, and it should be consistent.”

A TikTok spokeswoman declined to comment.

YouTube said it paid more than $70 billion to creators, artists and media companies in the past three years, and more than 25% of channels in the ad-revenue share model are now making money through it. “We remain committed to putting our full energy into what matters most for our creators, viewers and advertisers,” a spokeswoman said.

A future without TikTok?

Many creators and advertisers credit TikTok, which pioneered the short-form video genre, with driving stronger engagement than its industry peers. TikTok has gained more than 170 million users in the U.S. since its launch in 2016—including, Pew Research Center says, a third of American adults. They spend an average of 78 minutes a day on the app, according to market-intelligence firm Sensor Tower.

TikTok may not be available in the U.S. for much longer, at least not in its current form. In April, President Biden signed a bill into law that will force a sale or ban of the app by Jan. 19, 2025. U.S. lawmakers have expressed worries that TikTok poses a national security risk. TikTok’s parent company, Beijing-based ByteDance, has said it can’t and won’t sell its U.S. operations by the deadline.

ByteDance sued the U.S. government, alleging the new law violates its First Amendment rights. Several U.S. creators also sued. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will hear arguments in September for both cases.

“To lose TikTok would be kind of devastating,” says Brandon Granberg , a 31-year-old creator from Bayville, N.J., known for interacting with strangers in public places in silly ways.

Granberg struggled for years to attract viewers on the app before one viral post two years ago took his follower count from 5,000 to more than one million. Recently he made $1,000 from a TikTok program that launched last year called TikTok Creative Challenge, which allows creators ​to earn money by making video ads for brands that don’t appear on their personal profiles. He also earned $2,800 for producing four TikTok videos promoting a website for people with foot fetishes. Granberg says he found it creepy, but did it because he needed the money.

While he hasn’t landed many other sponsored posts, he’s grown his income significantly by making marketing videos for small businesses over the past year. Most clients find Granberg on TikTok. “If it gets banned, it will definitely hurt me,” he says.

Changing tastes and algorithms

This year, U.S. social-media creators as a whole are expected to make $13.7 billion, according to Emarketer. The research firm projects the majority of that—$8.14 billion, or 59%—will come from brand sponsorships.

Advertisers have always led in compensating creators, paying out far more money than the social-media platforms and fans who buy merchandise or dole out tips. But these days, advertisers expect more from creators than just large followings, according to agency and talent representatives. They want to see evidence of strong engagement in the form of saved and shared posts, plus the demographics of creators’ audiences.

“Brands are looking at metrics that are far less predictable for creators and also very difficult to price yourself on,” says Sarah Peretz, a business-strategy consultant in Los Angeles who helps creators negotiate partnerships and deals with advertisers.

Some brands are more controlling than in the past, says Sarah Steele , a 34-year-old creator in Tulsa, Okla., who started making TikTok videos about being a working mom in 2020. “Now it’s, ‘We’re paying you and this is what we want you to say.’ ”

Earlier this year, Steele says an advertiser insisted she cite legal disclaimers in a series of sponsored Instagram posts. “It felt like I was reading off a teleprompter,” she says. “As a consumer it even turned me off to the brand a little bit.”

Creators, meanwhile, are having a tougher time attracting viewers, thanks to algorithm changes and other factors beyond their control. And while more advertisers are looking to partner with creators than in the past, “increased activity leads to increased competition,” says Peretz.

Another change is that advertisers now prefer to work with just a handful of creators on long-lasting deals rather than experiment with several on one-off projects, says Jess Hunichen, of Shine Talent Group.

Hunichen co-founded the talent-management agency in 2015, when TikTok didn’t exist and influencer marketing was still relatively new. Back then, an average deal size between an influencer and brand was usually below $1,000. Now, the average deal per campaign is around $10,000, she says.

Worth the hustle

Ronit Halmos of Los Angeles began making TikTok videos earlier this year that she describes as quick-reviews of restaurants, bars and more “with some sass and attitude.”

The 27-year-old, a full-time technology recruiter, recently landed her first advertiser deal. A kombucha brand asked her to make a 30-second post featuring her take on a line of flavors. Though it ended up getting less attention from viewers than her usual fare, she made $1,500 from about 30 minutes of work.

Tyler Haven , a 27-year-old traveling around the Pacific Northwest, charges $250 to $300 to make promotional videos that brands can post to their own social channels, and around $1,200 for posts that appear on either his Instagram account with more than 41,000 followers or his TikTok account with more than 10,000 followers.

Since January, he’s been posting videos documenting his “van-life” with his wife, Oak Haven: Their primary residence is a fully paid, fully decked-out 2004 Mercedes Sprinter T1N.

Haven said it’s been easy to grow his following organically. He believes it’s because his posts don’t depict some unattainable, picture-perfect life.

He quit his job in June to pursue full-time content creation.

“Even if I were to make $2,000 a month, which is absolutely nothing—that’s less than most people’s rent—I could live on that,” Haven says.

With the van fully paid off, the 27-year-old says he and his wife, Oak Haven, can get by with even a small income from his videos. PHOTO: TODD MEIER FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL