Global Luxury Spending Could Decline Due To The Ukraine War

Nearly one month after Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the conflict’s impact on global businesses has spread to luxury industries.

Most high-fashion brands, including LVMH Group, Burberry, and Kering, closed their stores in Russia earlier this month, while announcing their donations to international humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.

How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will eventually affect the global luxury industry will depend on how long it lasts, experts say.

“We see a more likely, immediate, and relevant impact on Russians personal luxury spending locally, strongly driven by local currency devaluation and restrictions in place,” says Claudia D’Arpizio, senior partner and global head of fashion and luxury at Bain & Co., a Boston-headquartered management consulting firm.

Russian luxury customers account for approximately 2%-3%, or about €7 billion (AU$10.28 million) of the total global luxury goods market, she says.

The war will also likely damp consumer confidence in European countries and North America because of increases in energy prices, stock market volatility, the interruption to tourism, and other economic uncertainties, says Federica Levato, a partner at Bain and leader of its luxury practice in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

“Upon persistence of the crisis, financial stability could be also affected, particularly generating higher stock market volatility. American consumer confidence could potentially decline and eventually also their luxury spending,” she says.

Since Russia’s invasion, more than 19,000 have been killed, 10 million people have been displaced, and more than AU$119 billion in property has been damaged.

Near-term, the luxury brands have taken an economic hit from their decision to close stores in Russia.

In early March, LVMH temporarily closed its 124 stores in Russia. Other fashion houses—including France’s Kering, Chanel, Hermes International, Swiss group Richemont,, and Italy’s Prada—all announced that they had suspended their operations in Russia through their social media accounts.

However, it is unlikely that the luxury brands will stop doing business in Russia, says Kate Newlin, a principal of New York-based Kate Newlin Consulting.

“When you think about luxury, you think of Russian oligarchs as a major segment of customer,” Newlin says. “It will be a larger bet for LVMH to walk away than, for example, McDonald’s.”

LVMH did not respond to a request for comment. The conglomerate, which owns brands such as Dior, Fendi, and Louis Vuitton, donated €5 million to the International Committee of the Red Cross to help those affected by the war in Ukraine in early March.

British fashion house Burberry declined to comment on the war’s impact on its business. On March 11, it donated to two more organizations, Save the Children, and UNICEF, in support of their Ukraine humanitarian appeals, following an earlier donation to the British Red Cross Ukraine Crisis Appeal.

As tech leaders race to bring Windows systems back online after Friday’s software update by cybersecurity company CrowdStrike crashed around 8.5 million machines worldwide, experts share with CIO Journal their takeaways for preparing for the next major information technology outage.

Be familiar with how vendors develop, test and release their software

IT leaders should hold vendors deeply integrated within IT systems, such as CrowdStrike , to a “very high standard” of development, release quality and assurance, said Neil MacDonald , a Gartner vice president.

“Any security vendor has a responsibility to do extensive regression testing on all versions of Windows before an update is rolled out,” he said.

That involves asking existing vendors to explain how they write software, what testing they do and whether customers may choose how quickly to roll out an update.

“Incidents like this remind all of us in the CIO community of the importance of ensuring availability, reliability and security by prioritizing guardrails such as deployment and testing procedures and practices,” said Amy Farrow, chief information officer of IT automation and security company Infoblox.

Re-evaluate how your firm accepts software updates from ‘trusted’ vendors

While automatically accepting software updates has become the norm—and a recommended security practice—the CrowdStrike outage is a reminder to take a pause, some CIOs said.

“We still should be doing the full testing of packages and upgrades and new features,” said Paul Davis, a field chief information security officer at software development platform maker JFrog . undefined undefined Though it’s not feasible to test every update, especially for as many as hundreds of software vendors, Davis said he makes it a priority to test software patches according to their potential severity and size.

Automation, and maybe even artificial intelligence-based IT tools, can help.

“Humans are not very good at catching errors in thousands of lines of code,” said Jack Hidary, chief executive of AI and quantum company SandboxAQ. “We need AI trained to look for the interdependence of new software updates with the existing stack of software.”

Develop a disaster recovery plan

An incident rendering Windows computers unusable is similar to a natural disaster with systems knocked offline, said Gartner’s MacDonald. That’s why businesses should consider natural disaster recovery plans for maintaining the resiliency of their operations.

One way to do that is to set up a “clean room,” or an environment isolated from other systems, to use to bring critical systems back online, according to Chirag Mehta, a cybersecurity analyst at Constellation Research.

Businesses should also hold tabletop exercises to simulate risk scenarios, including IT outages and potential cyber threats, Mehta said.

Companies that back up data regularly were likely less impacted by the CrowdStrike outage, according to Victor Zyamzin, chief business officer of security company Qrator Labs. “Another suggestion for companies, and we’ve been saying that again and again for decades, is that you should have some backup procedure applied, running and regularly tested,” he said.

Review vendor and insurance contracts

For any vendor with a significant impact on company operations , MacDonald said companies can review their contracts and look for clauses indicating the vendors must provide reliable and stable software.

“That’s where you may have an advantage to say, if an update causes an outage, is there a clause in the contract that would cover that?” he said.

If it doesn’t, tech leaders can aim to negotiate a discount serving as a form of compensation at renewal time, MacDonald added.

The outage also highlights the importance of insurance in providing companies with bottom-line protection against cyber risks, said Peter Halprin, a partner with law firm Haynes Boone focused on cyber insurance.

This coverage can include protection against business income losses, such as those associated with an outage, whether caused by the insured company or a service provider, Halprin said.

Weigh the advantages and disadvantages of the various platforms

The CrowdStrike update affected only devices running Microsoft Windows-based systems , prompting fresh questions over whether enterprises should rely on Windows computers.

CrowdStrike runs on Windows devices through access to the kernel, the part of an operating system containing a computer’s core functions. That’s not the same for Apple ’s Mac operating system and Linux, which don’t allow the same level of access, said Mehta.

Some businesses have converted to Chromebooks , simple laptops developed by Alphabet -owned Google that run on the Chrome operating system . “Not all of them require deeper access to things,” Mehta said. “What are you doing on your laptop that actually requires Windows?”