A much-anticipated strategic update continues the bank’s frustratingly slow pivot toward Asia, only with lower shareholder returns.
2 min
Another year, another familiar-sounding strategic update at HSBC. The behemoth’s need to reiterate its pivot to Asia underlines what a slow, awkward process it is.
The London-headquartered, China-focused bank announced full-year results on Tuesday. As at peers, revenues were hit by lower interest rates globally and chunky allowances for pandemic-related loan losses. Unlike at investment-banking rivals, the bump in trading revenues from HSBC’s own trimmed-back business was a meagre offset. A much-anticipated new strategy amounted to more of the same—except for lowered shareholders returns.
The shares fell in early trading, extending a year of underperformance. For much of the past decade the stock has traded at a premium to most European peers because of HSBC’s strong business in Hong Kong and mainland China, both profitable, fast-growing markets. But that gap has narrowed considerably in the past year, likely for two main reasons: Investors want faster organizational change, and they are concerned that HSBC’s trademark business model of bridging East and West is getting more difficult.
The bank broadly delivered on its 2020 targets. However, return on tangible equity or ROTE fell to just 3.1% from 8.4% a year earlier, and dividends were suspended at the British regulator’s request. The pandemic seems a valid excuse. The real disappointment was in its guidance for future returns. Target ROTE has been reduced and delayed, even with an additional $1 billion in cost cuts. Dividend expectations were pared back too: The growing quarterly payment has been replaced with a 40% to 55% payout ratio, possibly topped up with buybacks or special dividends.
Strategically, the bank is still focused on shifting more assets from Europe and the U.S. into Asia, as well as increasing its wealth management business and making its operations more digital. The direction of travel makes sense, but the pace remains frustratingly sedate, particularly as competition in the region is picking up. Discussions continue about long-mooted exits from retail operations in France and the U.S.
The speed of change might accelerate under Chief Financial Officer Ewen Stevenson, who was put in charge of the new overhaul. A relative outsider, he joined HSBC in 2019 from RBS, now known as NatWest, where he led a far-reaching revamp of what was once the largest bank in the world by assets.
HSBC’s shares are also weighed down by geopolitics. Management says little on the topic of Sino-American relations, except to highlight a long history of successfully bridging international divides. That discretion may be the best way to juggle conflicting priorities, but does little to assuage investor concerns that its dual identity may eventually become untenable.
The bank has no good answers to geopolitical questions, giving it all the more reason to address organizational ones. For a company that makes much of its position in exciting high-growth Asian markets, HSBC’s expected returns are surprisingly modest. For its shares to regain their old lustre, that needs to change.
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Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall stock market due to shifting odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and other macro challenges.
3 min
The stock market had a decent summer. Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall.
In the past couple of months, equity investors cheered soaring profits at big companies, shrugged off jitters in the bond market and nudged megacap tech shares back near records.
Now, as the post-Labor Day stretch begins, a number of new challenges lie ahead: ever-shifting odds of an interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Sky-high expectations after a stunning earnings season. The persistent threat of higher consumer prices as fighting in the Middle East drags on.
“You’re moving from this earnings-driven market to this macro-driven market with the Fed, inflation and interest rates in focus,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment adviser for Truist Advisory Services. “It tends to be a choppier period.”
Historically, every major U.S. stock index experiences its worst average return in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid an average 1.1% in the ninth month of the year, in data that dates back to the 19th century. The S&P 500 has seen the same average decline—and for every September dating back to 1928, the benchmark ends the month lower more than half of the time.
Analysts caution against reading too much into those seasonal patterns. But in recent weeks, new reasons for investor caution have emerged. One of the largest: the looming threat of an interest-rate increase from the Fed, which announces its next policy decision on Sept. 16.
Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to ditch forward guidance and take more of his cues from markets has muddied the waters for investors when it comes to monetary policy. That has left traders scouring Fed governor speeches and economic-data reports for clues on the central bank’s next move.
“There’s going to be a lot of eyes on those numbers,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.
The past couple of weeks offered just one example of how frequently those expectations can change. After Warsh struck a hawkish tone during remarks on Aug. 28, the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next meeting jumped from 35% before the speech to 58%, according to CME FedWatch data.
On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made a case for leaving rates where they are. Interest-rate futures showed coin-flip odds between a hike and a hold. Then Friday’s robust jobs report amped up rate-hike bets once more, back to a roughly 60% chance of higher rates after the meeting.
“Rates have really been driving the car for equities the last few weeks,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.
That uncertainty comes as an unruly bond market could put pressure on stocks. Treasury yields have marched higher for much of the summer, driven by concerns about rising oil prices, growing U.S. budget deficits and a deluge of tech-company bonds now competing for investors’ cash. Last week, the rout went global, pushing yields to multiyear highs in Japan, Germany and the U.K.
Higher bond yields can drag on stock prices and lift borrowing costs for companies and consumers across the economy.
Rising prices remain the top concern for bond traders, and continued fighting between the U.S. and Iran has done little to ease those worries. The national average price of diesel climbed to a record of $5.850 on Friday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.712 a year ago.
Investors will get more insight on the path of prices this week, with the much-awaited consumer-price index report due Friday and a reading on producer prices Thursday.
With another blockbuster earnings season in the books, some analysts have also warned that any boost from the third-quarter reports due in the coming months could be minimal. Back-to-back quarters of standout profits have raised expectations and made it especially difficult to impress traders. Custom-chip company Broadcom, for example, said Wednesday that it more than tripled its earnings and nearly doubled its revenue. Shares slipped 2.7% the next session.
Many analysts note there are plenty of reasons not to panic. The economy is in impressive shape, thanks to a healthy labor market and the rippling effects of the artificial-intelligence investment boom. Profits are booming at America’s biggest companies. The Cboe Volatility Index has dropped to its lowest levels of 2026. Credit spreads are tight, a sign bond investors aren’t concerned about economic conditions that could hurt companies.
But the mood has shifted from the euphoria that felt tangible when the Nasdaq was notching back-to-back records early this summer. The question, Mayfield said, is whether the fundamentals that have bolstered the bull market so far can stretch the rally into 2027.
“There are more anxieties or uncertainties about the backdrop,” he said. “It does feel like a transitional moment.”
