Japan Is the Most Exciting Market in the World

There are conflicting stories to tell about investing in Japan at the moment, and annoyingly both appear to be correct.

The first is that the stock market is on fire, producing the best returns of any major developed country since the start of last year as foreigners wake up to the new shareholder-friendly approach of government, stock exchange and corporate boards.

Billionaire Warren Buffett’s visit and positive comments in the spring highlighted the value of venturing to the country, and stocks are up more than 20% since late March as foreign cash poured in.

The second is that all the work has been done by the collapsing yen, and in dollar terms Japanese stocks have performed almost exactly like the S&P 500.

I’m convinced by both stories, which is tricky. Under the first, I’ve long thought that Japan is shifting more toward market capitalism (even as the U.S. appears to be moving away from it).

The reform process that began with the third of the “three arrows” of Abenomics a decade ago is finally bearing fruit, as directors increasingly focus on profitability, run down cash piles and put investors first. There is still a long way to go (the barbarians remain mostly outside the gate) but buybacks, hostile takeovers and pushy investors getting their way are no longer impossible.

It isn’t just that the government, takeover panel and stock exchange are trying to create a friendly environment for shareholders. As Peter Tasker, co-founder and chief strategist of Arcus Investment, points out, they are pushing at an open door.

Companies overall have net cash, freeing them from the obligations to banks that made them focus on their lenders rather than their shareholders.

Incipient inflation—still supported by negative interest rates at the Bank of Japan—makes holding cash less attractive. The aging population has created a permanent labor shortage. This makes layoffs politically easier since jettisoned workers can find new work quickly. And the desire of the U.S. and Europe to reduce dependence on China makes Japan’s manufacturing base and Pacific location attractive.

“I see a confluence of the incentives for investors put in place by the authorities and the position of Japan geopolitically as being very important, particularly as the yen is so cheap,” Tasker says.

The very cheapness of the yen is the problem, though. Since the start of last year, gains for Japanese stocks over and above the S&P have come only when the yen weakens—which it has done in high style. The currency is approaching 150 yen to the dollar again, worrying policy makers who intervened last year for the first time since 2011 to protect the level. This week, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned of possible intervention although insisted that it is sharp moves in the yen, not the currency’s level, that the government cares about.

It is natural that Japanese stocks should gain as the currency weakens, since the biggest are global companies such as Toyota Motor and Sony Group that earn much of their revenue overseas. The problem is that when the yen’s moves are stripped out, the Japanese market has matched the U.S. almost perfectly.

This makes it doubly hard to be bullish on Japan in the short run. If the currency strengthens, stocks should fall. And the currency is likely to strengthen if and when the central bank pulls back from super-easy policies in the face of rising inflation (core consumer prices are rising at the highest rate since 1992, before deflation set in).

Worse, it’s really hard to see why Japanese stocks have performed like the S&P, given the huge differences between the two markets. Investors shouldn’t invest in things they don’t understand, and the tight link between the performance of the broadly diversified Japanese market and the tech-dominated, top-heavy S&P is a puzzle.

Maybe it is driven by index and futures traders throwing billions around while ignoring individual stocks, thus creating great opportunities for stock pickers. But this is impossible to prove, and the alternative theory is blind luck, not a great basis for an investment.

One twist to my concerns is that perhaps it’s good that Japan has only matched the U.S. for the past couple of years, because it means many investors haven’t yet bought into the idea that Japan is fixing its stock market. For those of us who think there is a long-lasting change under way in Japan, that means there is still plenty of buyers out there who will eventually join in.

That shows up in stock valuations. Tasker calculates that almost half the benchmark Topix index trades at less than book value, while the index has a forward price/earnings ratio of 14 times, against 18 for the S&P.

True, it’s no longer the screaming bargain it was at below 11 times before Abenomics began, or around 12 earlier this year when Buffett visited Tokyo and said he might increase already-hefty holdings in the country’s trading houses (which have all outperformed the broader market since). But it is at least much cheaper than the U.S.

Japan has plenty of long-run economic challenges, not least a huge government debt load and among the world’s worst demographics, as well as a reliance on central-bank financing. The puzzling link between its stock market and the S&P gives me pause for thought, too.

But for the medium to long run, so long as macroeconomic disaster is averted, the shift toward market capitalism ought to lead to better-run companies that are worth more.

For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.

Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.

Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.

Lowered Expectations

Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.

Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.

Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.

Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”

Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.

Behind the Malaise

For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.

The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.

The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.

Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.

Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.

“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.

Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.

For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.

Sticking Around

Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.

Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.

Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.

“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”

Corrections & Amplifications

Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.

Japan Is the Most Exciting Market in the World

Warren Buffett’s visit in the spring highlighted the value, and stocks are up 20% since March

Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.

Lowered Expectations

Behind the Malaise

Sticking Around