PELOTON BACKPEDALS IN RIGHT DIRECTION
Fitness company says it will outsource its manufacturing as it steers toward more sustainable growth.
Fitness company says it will outsource its manufacturing as it steers toward more sustainable growth.
Peloton Interactive built its business to delight its customers. Now it must do the same for its shareholders.
Peloton said Tuesday that it will stop producing its own hardware, exiting all owned manufacturing operations and expanding its relationship with its Taiwanese manufacturer, Rexon Industrial Corp. The move comes as Peloton’s new Chief Executive Barry McCarthy works to right the company’s financials, unwinding big, and in hindsight naive, bets co-founder John Foley made during his tenure.
Peloton’s shares, which have lost 92% of their value over the past year, jumped by almost 5% after the market’s open. A shift to outsourced manufacturing came as a relief. The about-face highlights what Mr. Foley got spectacularly wrong: Peloton acquired Taiwan-based manufacturer Tonic Fitness Technology back in 2019—a move Mr. Foley said was meant to help Peloton own the supply chain in an effort to increase scale and capacity, as well as to “delight” its members.
But, as online retailer Stitch Fix, another business currently undergoing major restructuring and suffering a similar stock price implosion also is learning, it is very hard to own every piece of your customers’ experience and grow exponentially without losing your investors. The numbers simply don’t add up.
Customers probably won’t care where their exercise bike is made, and in fact Rexon and other contract manufacturers had already been building some of Peloton’s components and equipment. Apple, a company with a reputation for design and a loyal customer base, outsources its manufacturing, largely to China. That wasn’t always the case, but outsourcing went a long way toward making the company highly profitable, courtesy of current Chief Executive Tim Cook. In Peloton’s case, it is worth noting that Rexon builds the company’s Tread treadmill and built its recalled Tread+, the sales of which are still on hold. As long as there are no more recalls, Peloton users are there for the company’s content, with the pretty hardware just a means to the end.
Mr. Foley wanted Wall Street to see Peloton as a growth company, and that is how it was valued at its peak. Ultimately, though, there are only going to be so many people interested in sweating profusely on an expensive stationary bike alongside kindred endorphin seekers the world over. As BMO analyst Simeon Siegel put it, Peloton is a company with a phenomenal stable of existing users and right now, it should be focused on “bear hugging” those loyalists.
Data from UBS show that adoption levels of Peloton’s cheaper app, which the company views as a key customer acquisition tool toward its more expensive subscription, continued to decline in May and early June. It also showed active users declining since January. YipitData shows subscriber retention for fiscal 2022 has slightly underperformed historical averages and that churn increased in June year over year. More broadly, Similarweb data shows “home fitness” web traffic declining 24% year over year for the most recently tracked two-week period in late June—the largest annual declines logged by the firm this year.
Wall Street will have to wait for Peloton’s fiscal fourth-quarter report for more granular details on how exactly Tuesday’s announcement will impact the company’s cost structure. A Peloton spokesperson confirmed the company would cut about 570 employees in Taiwan, but that 100 employees would remain in that business unit focused on quality control, engineering and research and development. And Peloton will get a new chief financial officer in Liz Coddington—previously of Amazon.com and Netflix—after the company said Jill Woodworth, who had served in that role since 2018, will step down.
The company we once knew as aspirational is quickly becoming a commodity. It will try to prove to its investors that it can at least be a hot one.
Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: July 12, 2022.
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Gold miners are emerging as a compelling way to navigate market uncertainty, with analysts pointing to strong cash flows, attractive valuations and rising profit margins. As gold prices stabilize above US$4,000 an ounce, mining stocks could offer investors both downside protection and long-term upside.
Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.
The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.
Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.
Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.
These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.
Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.
Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.
Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.
“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.
“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.
Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.
“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.
That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.
“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.
They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.
An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.
What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.
One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.
But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.