The sudden sell off in Japanese equities and a surge in the VIX suggest the current rout is being exaggerated by trend chasers
4 min
The red numbers in your 401(k) today might appear to vindicate warnings about an artificial-intelligence bubble and infirm economy. But don’t tilt your portfolio toward full pessimism just yet.
The S&P 500 was down 3% Monday, with the Nasdaq falling even further. Investors have been selling the year’s best performers, concerned that disappointing second-quarter results from big technology companies such as Alphabet , Tesla and Intel are a sign that the AI frenzy is a fad. Also, consumer discretionary stocks have become the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, as lacklustre labour-market reports have raised worries that the Federal Reserve made a mistake by waiting until September to cut interest rates.
Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 closed almost 5% below where it was a week ago, whereas the Swiss franc, a common haven asset, is up roughly 4%. The most eye-popping moves happened in Asia, though, where the Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% Monday in the worst trading session since Oct. 20, 1987—the day that followed Wall Street’s infamous Black Monday.
Yet it is precisely the breakneck speed with which Japanese equities tumbled that should give most investors a reason to remain calm.
As a guideline, sudden market selloffs are less dangerous than those that unfold progressively over time. This is because investors who rationally price in bad economic data often do so slowly, as it trickles in. Flash crashes, conversely, are often a sign that some tidbit of bad news made speculative bets go awry, triggering a cascade of trades, many of them automated.
Japan is particularly prone to such reversals because interest rates there are so low that many investors use them to fund higher-yielding investments in other currencies. Whenever markets get jittery, these “carry trades” tend to unravel, pushing up the yen and hitting Japanese stocks, many of which are diversified exporters that do better when global growth accelerates. Amplifying this tendency, Japanese stocks had this year become extremely popular among global investors.
The timing of the rout also points a finger at the Bank of Japan , which last week decided to tighten monetary policy for the first time in 17 years with the explicit goal of boosting the yen. Investors who rushed to cover their bets then triggered the reversal of stretched trades elsewhere, including in the U.S.
One of the most striking features of the S&P 500 for most of this year has been its extremely low volatility. Until July, the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, was at 2019 levels, and kept sliding lower even as investors made big changes to their monetary-policy forecasts.
While the VIX is often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the options contracts it is based on often themselves influence volatility. Whenever investors make bets against market swings, as they have recently in the U.S. by buying lots of structured products , the banks that sell those options are forced to take the other side. These hedges then suppress volatility in the stock market.
The flip side is that whenever a panic breaks through this feedback loop, volatility skyrockets. As the stock market opened Monday, the VIX hovered above 50, making it the highest weekly jump since the onset of the pandemic, though it later fell below 40.
This suggests the selloff is disproportionate, especially looking at the historical record: 87% of the time, investors who bought the S&P 500 on days when the VIX closed at 30 or higher ended up making money a year later.
The second-quarter reporting season has brought mostly good news, with 78% of the S&P 500 firms that have reported so far beating analysts’ earnings estimates—compared with a 74% 10-year average. Both AI-related companies and the rest are reporting net income above what was forecast a month ago. Overall, the U.S. economy still looks robust: The unemployment rate has gone up because the labor force has expanded.
Also, looking at S&P 500 returns since 1994 shows that selling based on the previous day’s falls is a bad strategy. Electing to move into cash after large monthly declines fared better, but still less well than sitting tight.
This isn’t to say that concerns about an economic slowdown or high tech valuations aren’t warranted. Investors have reasons to diversify away from the AI trend or swap more cyclically exposed stocks for more “defensive” names. Indeed, selling out of stocks after particularly exuberant days and months has historically tended to be a winning move. But hindsight is a terrible guide to investing your savings.
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2 min
Tuesday’s retail sales report could be the scrap of evidence that tips the balance as Federal Reserve officials decide how much to cut interest rates on Wednesday.
It is practically a given that the central bank will reduce rates. Inflation has fallen to its lowest point since February 2021, giving the Fed more flexibility to focus on the second component of its dual mandate—achieving maximum employment. Although the labor market remains resilient, the most recent two jobs reports have been weaker than expected, putting some pressure on the Fed to loosen monetary policy.
The question now is by how much rates will fall—0.5 percentage point, or 0.25 point? The indications from interest-rate futures are split , recently favoring the more aggressive half-percentage-point decrease.
Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi , leans toward the likelihood the Fed is more cautious on Wednesday, cutting rates by 0.25 percentage points. But he notes that it it is a close call that depends on the dynamics of the bank’s rate-setting committee and the strength or weakness of Tuesday’s retail sales report.
A positive surprise would suggest that both consumers and the labor market remain resilient, paving the way for a more modest cut. If the report comes in well below expectations, however, Fed officials may grow concerned that a weaker labor market is weighing on consumer spending, which could lead to a bigger cut, Hollenhorst added.
Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of the money-management firm Navellier agrees. “In theory, if the August retail sales report is horrible, then a 0.5% Fed key interest rate cut may be forthcoming on Wednesday,” he said.
Economists are expecting retail sales will decline by 0.2% in August from July, according to FactSet. They jumped by a surprising 1% in July .
Lower gasoline prices and car sales will likely drag the headline number lower. Indeed, stripping out car and gas sales, retail sales are projected to increase by about 0.3% month over month.
Yet there is growing concern that even excluding autos and gas sales, the sales figure will be soft. While spending was remarkably strong in July, the Fed’s latest Beige Book flagged that consumer spending ticked down in August, points out Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank . Many retailers, particularly those catering to lower-income shoppers, have warned that Americans are being cautious and exceedingly choosy about what they are buying and where.
The impact of the retail sales report will likely extend beyond the immediate rate cut. The insights it contains about U.S. consumers will also factor into the Fed’s quarterly update to its Summary of Economic Projections, containing officials’ latest forecasts for the U.S. economy, inflation, and near-term interest rates.
The so-called dot plot , which charts the individual interest-rate projections of the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors and the 12 regional Fed presidents, is always closely watched as investors try to chart the Fed’s future actions.
Hollenhorst believes the median dot showing where rates will be at the end of 2024 should show “at least” 0.75 percentage-point of cuts, factoring in 0.25 point at each meeting through the end of the year. But it is likely that officials will leave the door open for more cuts in case data on the job market or consumer spending sour faster than expected.
