A new way of stock-market wagering is taking hold among younger investors who prefer to think about how much they can spend instead of how many shares they can afford.
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Purchasing a piece of Apple or Tesla once meant calculating how many shares you could afford to buy. That no longer matters. Now you can pay whatever you’re willing to spend, even if that amounts to pocket change.
Thinking primarily about dollars instead of shares represents a dramatic shift in the world of personal finance, posing new opportunities and risks for investors. The practice is gaining momentum thanks to the widespread adoption of fractional trading—which allows investors to purchase slivers of traditional shares—as well as an industry push to reduce online trading fees to zero.
These twin developments made it easier and more cost-effective for new investors to wager as little as $1 on stocks. The volatility of the coronavirus pandemic then turbocharged these bets as market leaders like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. soared into the hundreds or thousands of dollars. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 73% since its intraday low point in March 2020.
The lineup of wealth managers catering to dollar-focused investors is spreading from upstart online brokerages that rely on flashy apps to industry stalwarts that have longstanding bricks-and-mortar offices around the U.S. One of those giants, Fidelity Investments, launched a service early in 2020 called Stocks by the Slice allowing investors to purchase fractional shares for the first time. When Stocks by the Slice launched last February, 75% of the buy trades from investors using the service were in dollars on average. This month Fidelity now says that figure is closer to 85%.
In the future “retail investors will be thinking 100% in dollars, not in shares,” said Scott Ignall, head of Fidelity’s retail brokerage business. “Clients no longer need to use a calculator to figure out how many shares of stock they want to buy.”
Advocates say the dollar-first approach is helping democratise access to the stock market and open the wealth management industry to a new wave of investors. There are also dangers. Some say the strategy could encourage risky speculation that some analysts and academics warn will end with individuals losing money. Thinking in dollars, some worry, will distance new investors from their investments or inhibit their greater understanding of market moves.
“If you give people a smaller sandbox to make mistakes, they’ll still make mistakes,” says Larry Harris, former chief economist for the Securities and Exchange Commission and professor of finance at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “But also when you make mistakes, you can learn at a lesser cost.”
The ability to pay micro amounts and hold fractional shares when purchasing stocks isn’t necessarily new. Investors have long paid little for penny stocks and small-cap stocks, while others have been able to amass portions of shares through dividend-reinvestment plans. What is new is the ability to freely trade partial shares during market hours. Brokers like Fidelity and Robinhood Markets Inc. can now execute fractional orders immediately, much as they execute ordinary orders to trade stocks or exchange-traded funds.
“Surely, people had to think in dollars before,” Mr Harris said. “Now, they just don’t feel the constraints.”
That is the case for James Evans, a 29-year-old bar and night club manager in Manchester, England. When the pandemic hit Manchester, he was furloughed with more time on his hands to think about his personal investing strategy.
Mr Evans uses Trading212, a London-based trading app, to “build his own ETF,” as he puts it, with fractional buys. He said thinking in dollars gives him more freedom to diversify his portfolio and establish a stronger position.
“This has given me a lot more time to look at what I’m doing, as opposed to just kind of winging it,” he said. “The pandemic has kind of helped that, just in a weird way.”
Robinhood, which was founded in 2013, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this shift. Its free app now has 13 million users with a median age of 31. Investors can start investing for as little as $1, but the most commonly-traded amount on Robinhood’s recurring investment feature—which makes investments in dollars—is $10 every week.
Account holders “want to not do the math,” said Madhu Muthukumar, head of product at Robinhood.
Robinhood’s recurring investments option allows users to put a set amount of money toward given investments on a weekly or monthly basis. The company says the feature was in response to users who aren’t day traders but wanted an investment option they could build into their otherwise low-tech financial lives.
Larger rivals are now embracing the same approach. Last June Charles Schwab Corp. launched a fractional-trading program called “Stock Slices” that had nearly 190,000 accounts as of December. Schwab estimates the average Stock Slices user is younger than its average brokerage customer. Their average buy order is $275, according to Schwab, still well below the going stock price of companies like Tesla and Netflix Inc.
“We’re seeing growth across all kinds of clients, but we have seen a lot of growth in our younger user base,” said Fidelity’s Mr. Ignall. “We do think that this new way of investing has definitely contributed to that growth.”
For Mr Evans, the 29-year-old nightclub manager, thinking in dollars as opposed to shares demystifies the process. He employs dollar-cost averaging, a strategy that invests the same amounts of money at regular frequencies over time, to build his portfolio. This strategy makes it easier for novice investors to set up their investments with the amount of money they want to spend—and it is also often the only option available to younger, newer players who don’t have lots of money to invest in the market.
“Especially when you’re dollar cost averaging, it’s a lot harder with whole shares, because if the whole share is quite a lot, you have to make your dollar-cost averaging more spread out,” Mr. Evans said. “If you can’t do fractionals, you have to just buy one share, which could be, you know, $100. Then you have to make sure you time it so that it fits your investing time frame.”
But as Mr Harris points out, all investors should be thinking about dollars in some capacity. Stock prices can go up and down depending on the total value of a company’s equity or the amount of shares left to buy.
Ultimately, Mr Harris said, the best way to purchase stocks is a personal decision for many investors: “Do you feel richer owning the number of shares you own or the dollars you own?”
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4 min
U.S. investors’ enthusiasm over Japanese stocks at this time last year turned out to be misplaced, but the market is again on the list of potential ways to diversify. Corporate shake-ups, hints of inflation after years of declining prices, and a trade battle could work in its favor.
Japanese stocks started 2024 off strong, but an unexpected interest-rate increase in August by the Bank of Japan triggered a sharp decline that the market has spent the rest of the year clawing back. Weakness in the yen has cut into returns in dollar terms. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF , which isn’t hedged, barely returned 7% last year, compared with 30% for the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund .
The market is relatively cheap, trading at 15 times forward earnings, about where it was a decade ago, and events on the horizon could give it a boost. Masakazu Takeda, who runs the Hennessy Japan fund, expects earnings growth of mid-single digits—2% after inflation and an additional 2% to 3% as companies return more to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
“We can easily get 10% plus returns if there’s no exogenous risks,” Takeda told Barron’s in December.
The first couple months of the year could be volatile as investors assess potential spoilers, such as whether the new Trump administration limits its tariff battle to China or goes wider, which would hurt Japan’s export-dependent market. The size of the wage increases labor unions secure in spring negotiations is another risk.
But beyond the headlines, fund managers and strategists see potential positive factors. First, 2024 will likely turn out to have been a record year for corporate earnings because some companies have benefited from rising prices and increasing demand, as well as better capital allocation.
In a note to clients, BofA strategist Masashi Akutsu said the market may again focus on a shift in corporate behavior that has begun to take place in recent years. For years, corporate culture has been resistant to change but recent developments—a battle over Seven & i Holdings that pits the founding family and investors against a bid from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard , and Honda and Nissan ’s merger are examples—have been a wake-up call for Japanese companies to pursue overhauls. He expects a pickup in share buybacks as companies begin to think about shareholder returns more.
A record number of companies have also delisted, often through management buyouts, in another indication that corporate behavior is changing in favor of shareholders.
“Japan is attracting a lot of activist interest in a lot of different guises, says Donald Farquharson, head of the Japanese equities team for Baillie Gifford. “While shareholder proposals are usually unsuccessful, they do start in motion a process behind the scenes about the capital structure.”
For years, money-losing businesses were left alone in large corporations, but the recent spate of activism and focus on shareholder returns has pushed companies to jettison such divisions or take measures to improve them.
That isn‘t to say it is going to be an easy year. A more protectionist world could be problematic for sentiment.
But Japan’s approach could become a model for others in this new world. “Japan has spent the last 30 to 40 years investing in business overseas, with the automotive industry, for example, manufacturing a lot of the cars in the geographies it sells in,” Farquharson said. “That’s true of a lot of what Japan is selling overseas.”
Trade volatility that hits Japanese stocks broadly could offer opportunities. Concerns about tariffs could drag down companies such as Tokio Marine Holdings, which gets half its earnings by selling insurance in the U.S., but wouldn’t be affected by duties. Similarly, Shin-Etsu Chemicals , a silicon wafer behemoth that sells critical materials, including to the chip industry, is another potential winner, Takeda says.
If other companies follow the lead of Japanese exporters and set up shop in the markets they sell in, Japanese automation makers like Nidec and Keyence might benefit as a way to control costs in countries where wages are higher, Farquharson says.
And as Japanese workers get real wage growth and settle into living in an economy no longer in a deflationary rut, companies focused on domestic consumers such as Rakuten Group should benefit. The internet company offers retail and travel, both of which should benefit, but also is home to an online banking and investment platform.
Rakuten’s enterprise value—its market capitalization plus debt—is still less than its annual sales, in part because the company had been investing heavily in its mobile network. But that division is about to hit break even, Farquharson says.
A stock that stands to benefit from consumer spending and the waves or tourists the weak yen is attracting is Orix , a conglomerate whose businesses include an international airport serving Osaka. The company’s aircraft-leasing business also benefits from the production snags and supply-chain disruptions at Airbus and Boeing , Takeda says.
An added benefit: Its financial businesses stand to get a boost as the Bank of Japan slowly normalizes interest rates. The stock trades at about nine times earnings and about par for book value, while paying a 4% dividend yield.
Corrections & Amplifications: The past year is expected to turn out to have been a record one for corporate earnings in Japan. An earlier version of this article incorrectly gave the time frame as the 12 months through March. Separately, Masashi Akutsu is a strategist at BofA. An earlier version incorrectly identified his employer as UBS.
