Chinese EV maker XPeng is making a battery decision it hopes will give it a leg up on the competition.
2 min
Batteries and battery- management systems are to an electric vehicle what a high-quality internal combustion engine is to a gasoline-powered car, so battery decisions can make or break an EV maker. Chinese EV maker XPeng is making a battery decision it hopes will give it a leg up on the competition.
XPeng (ticker: XPEV) is going to start selling LFP-battery-powered electric vehicles soon. China’s Ministry of Industrial Information & Technology recently announced that XPeng was using LFP batteries in vehicles.
LFP is short for lithium-iron-phosphate. Iron is the “F” in that acronym because its elemental symbol is “Fe.” Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are a little cheaper than top-of-the line lithium-ion batteries, which contain elements such as cobalt and nickel.
LFP batteries are more cost-effective, but with a trade-off. They don’t pack quite as much punch as their more expensive cousins, so the range of the cars that use them is affected.
XPeng, in this case, probably doesn’t mind because most drivers don’t need 482 kilometres, or even 320 kilometres, of daily range. The benefit of a lower purchase cost, for many car buyers, far exceeds the downside of a lower per-charge range. The company will continue to offer vehicles with top-of-the line lithium-ion batteries as well.
It’s an interesting decision for investors to ponder. Offering different batteries in an EV is a little like offering different engines in traditional automobiles. In traditional cars, however, engine options are usually tied to horsepower and speed. In the case of EVs, battery options are more about range.
Billions of dollars are being invested in the EV industry to come up with more powerful, longer-lasting batteries. QuantumScape (QS), for instance, is working on revolutionary solid-state battery technology. QuantumScape doesn’t have sales yet, but it is one of the most valuable automotive suppliers in the world. That’s how important batteries are to the EV industry.
QuantumScape’s batteries will, holders of the stock hope, be less expensive for the same range as existing technology. Commercial offerings are years down the road, though. XPeng’s move is another way to offer less expensive EVs today.
A lower- end XPeng model P7 costs about 230,000 yuan, or about $35,000. With LFP batteries, that price might drop 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, or perhaps $3,000 to $5,000. XPeng declined to comment on new pricing for EVs with the less expensive batteries, but noted that the information will come out soon.
It feels like a sound strategic move and one that investors can expect other EV makers to copy. Car buyers are still learning how to buy EVs. Range and cost, compared with traditional cars, can be a mystery. As options such as LFP batteries proliferate, buyers will begin to feel more comfortable comparing EV models, just like they do when selecting what engine they want in their automobile.
XPeng stock was up 3.3% in premarket trading. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up about 0.5%.
The rise might not be due to the batteries, though. XPeng stock has been on a wild ride lately. Shares dropped 11% Tuesday after investors digested news that deliveries in February were lower than in January. February, however, was affected by the Lunar New Year holiday. Monthly deliveries at Li Auto (LI) and NIO (NIO) dipped as well.
Year to date, XPeng share are down about 26% after finishing 2020 up almost 200% from the stock’s $15 initial public offering price.
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4 min
U.S. investors’ enthusiasm over Japanese stocks at this time last year turned out to be misplaced, but the market is again on the list of potential ways to diversify. Corporate shake-ups, hints of inflation after years of declining prices, and a trade battle could work in its favor.
Japanese stocks started 2024 off strong, but an unexpected interest-rate increase in August by the Bank of Japan triggered a sharp decline that the market has spent the rest of the year clawing back. Weakness in the yen has cut into returns in dollar terms. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF , which isn’t hedged, barely returned 7% last year, compared with 30% for the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund .
The market is relatively cheap, trading at 15 times forward earnings, about where it was a decade ago, and events on the horizon could give it a boost. Masakazu Takeda, who runs the Hennessy Japan fund, expects earnings growth of mid-single digits—2% after inflation and an additional 2% to 3% as companies return more to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
“We can easily get 10% plus returns if there’s no exogenous risks,” Takeda told Barron’s in December.
The first couple months of the year could be volatile as investors assess potential spoilers, such as whether the new Trump administration limits its tariff battle to China or goes wider, which would hurt Japan’s export-dependent market. The size of the wage increases labor unions secure in spring negotiations is another risk.
But beyond the headlines, fund managers and strategists see potential positive factors. First, 2024 will likely turn out to have been a record year for corporate earnings because some companies have benefited from rising prices and increasing demand, as well as better capital allocation.
In a note to clients, BofA strategist Masashi Akutsu said the market may again focus on a shift in corporate behavior that has begun to take place in recent years. For years, corporate culture has been resistant to change but recent developments—a battle over Seven & i Holdings that pits the founding family and investors against a bid from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard , and Honda and Nissan ’s merger are examples—have been a wake-up call for Japanese companies to pursue overhauls. He expects a pickup in share buybacks as companies begin to think about shareholder returns more.
A record number of companies have also delisted, often through management buyouts, in another indication that corporate behavior is changing in favor of shareholders.
“Japan is attracting a lot of activist interest in a lot of different guises, says Donald Farquharson, head of the Japanese equities team for Baillie Gifford. “While shareholder proposals are usually unsuccessful, they do start in motion a process behind the scenes about the capital structure.”
For years, money-losing businesses were left alone in large corporations, but the recent spate of activism and focus on shareholder returns has pushed companies to jettison such divisions or take measures to improve them.
That isn‘t to say it is going to be an easy year. A more protectionist world could be problematic for sentiment.
But Japan’s approach could become a model for others in this new world. “Japan has spent the last 30 to 40 years investing in business overseas, with the automotive industry, for example, manufacturing a lot of the cars in the geographies it sells in,” Farquharson said. “That’s true of a lot of what Japan is selling overseas.”
Trade volatility that hits Japanese stocks broadly could offer opportunities. Concerns about tariffs could drag down companies such as Tokio Marine Holdings, which gets half its earnings by selling insurance in the U.S., but wouldn’t be affected by duties. Similarly, Shin-Etsu Chemicals , a silicon wafer behemoth that sells critical materials, including to the chip industry, is another potential winner, Takeda says.
If other companies follow the lead of Japanese exporters and set up shop in the markets they sell in, Japanese automation makers like Nidec and Keyence might benefit as a way to control costs in countries where wages are higher, Farquharson says.
And as Japanese workers get real wage growth and settle into living in an economy no longer in a deflationary rut, companies focused on domestic consumers such as Rakuten Group should benefit. The internet company offers retail and travel, both of which should benefit, but also is home to an online banking and investment platform.
Rakuten’s enterprise value—its market capitalization plus debt—is still less than its annual sales, in part because the company had been investing heavily in its mobile network. But that division is about to hit break even, Farquharson says.
A stock that stands to benefit from consumer spending and the waves or tourists the weak yen is attracting is Orix , a conglomerate whose businesses include an international airport serving Osaka. The company’s aircraft-leasing business also benefits from the production snags and supply-chain disruptions at Airbus and Boeing , Takeda says.
An added benefit: Its financial businesses stand to get a boost as the Bank of Japan slowly normalizes interest rates. The stock trades at about nine times earnings and about par for book value, while paying a 4% dividend yield.
Corrections & Amplifications: The past year is expected to turn out to have been a record one for corporate earnings in Japan. An earlier version of this article incorrectly gave the time frame as the 12 months through March. Separately, Masashi Akutsu is a strategist at BofA. An earlier version incorrectly identified his employer as UBS.
