Yayoi Kusama Tops 2023 List of 21st-Century Artists

Artworks by Yayoi Kusama collectively sold for nearly US$81 million last year at the major global auction houses, making her the top-selling 21st-century contemporary artist, according to the Hiscox Artist Top 100 report.

The boost in sales for Kusama’s works pushed David Hockney, the previous year’s top-selling artist, to second place. Hockney’s art garnered US$50.3 million in sales last year, down from US$74.7 million in 2022, said Hiscox, a London-based specialty insurer.

The second annual ranking, compiled with research and analysis from London-based ArtTactic, also showed Kusama’s No. 1 ranking was consistent with a strong showing by women artists overall last year. Joining Kusama among the top five last year was Cecily Brown, who ranked fourth with US$31.7 million in sales.

Yoshitomo Nara, ranked third with sales of US$36 million and George Condo ranked fifth with sales of US$29.5 million.

Total sales of contemporary art made after the year 2000 fell 17% to US$955 million last year from US$1.5 billion in 2022, according to the report. Though sales of contemporary art by women fell 8% to US$306 million, the number of works sold rose 21%. And sales by their male peers fell a much sharper 20%, the report said.

“The market for female artists has been much more resilient than that for male artists,” the report said.

The results go beyond ultra-contemporary art. Earlier this year, ArtTactic reported that overall sales of art by women at the major auction houses hit a record US$825.8 million last year, up 7% from a year earlier.

Another mark of progress: Art by women comprised 32% of 21st-century art auction sales last year, up from 29% in 2022, as the number of women artists behind these sales continued to climb. There were 728 women artists represented last year, up 179% from 2019, the report said.

“Contemporary female artists have always been undervalued and underrepresented,” Robert Read , head of art and private clients at Hiscox said in a news release. “Meaningful progress has been made in recent years, as the market gradually begins to recognise the importance and value of their work, but we are still some way from parity.”

Following Kusama and Brown, the top female artists by sales value were Julie Mehretu, with sales of US$21.4 million; Jadé Fadojutimi, with sales of US$8.5 million; and Jenny Saville, with sales of US$7.8 million.

The Hiscox report just examined the auction market for works created in the 21st century and sold at Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s. This segment was stronger than much of the art market last year, with sales still 26% above pre-pandemic levels. Sales of art made before 2000 have fallen 22% since 2019, the report said.

This segment of the market is also making up a larger share of all post-war and contemporary art sold at auctions, reaching 70% last year from 63% a year earlier.

The Hiscox report was consistent with other analyses of the art market last year that found large-ticket sales, over US$1 million, declined in favour of sales of works with price tags of US$50,000 or less.

Within the 21st-century art category, the number of lower-priced works sold gained 25% while the number sold above US$1 million fell by 12%. The trend is backed by a near doubling in the number of artists making 21st-century works that end up at auction since 2019, the report said.

The benefits of so-called flipping—or the practice of selling art made by young artists within two years of their creation—fell dramatically, bringing in US$39 million in sales last year from US$67 million in 2022. That’s despite the number of lots with this newly made art at 662 was about the same as the previous year.

Though Kusama is 95 years old, 41% of those making 21st-century art are under age 45, unsurprisingly. Leading this group of younger artists last year was: Nicolas Party, whose works sold for US$20.2 million; the late Matthew Wong, whose works sold for US$16.5 million; Fadojutimi; Caroline Walker, whose works sold for US$7.5 million; and Dmitri Cherniak, whose works sold for US$6.7 million.

For years, global companies showcased their Chinese operations as a source of robust growth. A burgeoning middle class, a stream of people moving to cities, and the creation of new services to cater to them—along with the promise of the further opening of the world’s second-largest economy—drew companies eager to tap into the action.

Then Covid hit, isolating China from much of the world. Chinese leader Xi Jinping tightened control of the economy, and U.S.-China relations hit a nadir. After decades of rapid growth, China’s economy is stuck in a rut, with increasing concerns about what will drive the next phase of its growth.

Though Chinese officials have acknowledged the sputtering economy, they have been reluctant to take more than incremental steps to reverse the trend. Making matters worse, government crackdowns on internet companies and measures to burst the country’s property bubble left households and businesses scarred.

Lowered Expectations

Now, multinational companies are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations and tempering their outlooks. Marriott International narrowed its global revenue per available room growth rate to 3% to 4%, citing continued weakness in China and expectations that demand could weaken further in the third quarter. Paris-based Kering , home to brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, posted a 22% decline in sales in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, in the first half amid weaker demand in Greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Macau.

Pricing pressure and deflation were common themes in quarterly results. Starbucks , which helped build a coffee culture in China over the past 25 years, described it as one of its most notable international challenges as it posted a 14% decline in sales from that business. As Chinese consumers reconsidered whether to spend money on Starbucks lattes, competitors such as Luckin Coffee increased pressure on the Seattle company. Starbucks executives said in their quarterly earnings call that “unprecedented store expansion” by rivals and a price war hurt profits and caused “significant disruptions” to the operating environment.

Executive anxiety extends beyond consumer companies. Elevator maker Otis Worldwide saw new-equipment orders in China fall by double digits in the second quarter, forcing it to cut its outlook for growth out of Asia. CEO Judy Marks told analysts on a quarterly earnings call that prices in China were down roughly 10% year over year, and she doesn’t see the pricing pressure abating. The company is turning to productivity improvements and cost cutting to blunt the hit.

Add in the uncertainty created by deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and many investors are steering clear. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has lost half its value since March 2021. Recovery attempts have been short-lived. undefined undefined And now some of those concerns are creeping into the U.S. market. “A decade ago China exposure [for a global company] was a way to add revenue growth to our portfolio,” says Margaret Vitrano, co-manager of large-cap growth strategies at ClearBridge Investments in New York. Today, she notes, “we now want to manage the risk of the China exposure.”

Vitrano expects improvement in 2025, but cautions it will be slow. Uncertainty over who will win the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of higher tariffs pose additional risks for global companies.

Behind the Malaise

For now, China is inching along at roughly 5% economic growth—down from a peak of 14% in 2007 and an average of about 8% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Chinese consumers hit by job losses and continued declines in property values are rethinking spending habits. Businesses worried about policy uncertainty are reluctant to invest and hire.

The trouble goes beyond frugal consumers. Xi is changing the economy’s growth model, relying less on the infrastructure and real estate market that fueled earlier growth. That means investing aggressively in manufacturing and exports as China looks to become more self-reliant and guard against geopolitical tensions.

The shift is hurting western multinationals, with deflationary forces amid burgeoning production capacity. “We have seen the investment community mark down expectations for these companies because they will have to change tack with lower-cost products and services,” says Joseph Quinlan, head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.

Another challenge for multinationals outside of China is stiffened competition as Chinese companies innovate and expand—often with the backing of the government. Local rivals are upping the ante across sectors by building on their knowledge of local consumer preferences and the ability to produce higher-quality products.

Some global multinationals are having a hard time keeping up with homegrown innovation. Auto makers including General Motors have seen sales tumble and struggled to turn profitable as Chinese car shoppers increasingly opt for electric vehicles from BYD or NIO that are similar in price to internal-combustion-engine cars from foreign auto makers.

“China’s electric-vehicle makers have by leaps and bounds surpassed the capabilities of foreign brands who have a tie to the profit pool of internal combustible engines that they don’t want to disrupt,” says Christine Phillpotts, a fund manager for Ariel Investments’ emerging markets strategies.

Chinese companies are often faster than global rivals to market with new products or tweaks. “The cycle can be half of what it is for a global multinational with subsidiaries that need to check with headquarters, do an analysis, and then refresh,” Phillpotts says.

For many companies and investors, next year remains a question mark. Ashland CEO Guillermo Novo said in an August call with analysts that the chemical company was seeing a “big change” in China, with activity slowing and competition on pricing becoming more aggressive. The company, he said, was still trying to grasp the repercussions as it has created uncertainty in its 2025 outlook.

Sticking Around

Few companies are giving up. Executives at big global consumer and retail companies show no signs of reducing investment, with most still describing China as a long-term growth market, says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group.

Starbucks executives described the long-term opportunity as “significant,” with higher growth and margin opportunities in the future as China’s population continues to move from rural to suburban areas. But they also noted that their approach is evolving and they are in the early stages of exploring strategic partnerships.

Walmart sold its stake in August in Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com for $3.6 billion after an eight-year noncompete agreement expired. Analysts expect it to pump the money into its own Sam’s Club and Walmart China operation, which have benefited from the trend toward trading down in China.

“The story isn’t over for the global companies,” Phillpotts says. “It just means the effort and investment will be greater to compete.”

Corrections & Amplifications

Joseph Quinlan is head of market strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. An earlier version of this article incorrectly used his old title.

Yayoi Kusama Tops 2023 List of 21st-Century Artists

Multinationals like Starbucks and Marriott are taking a hard look at their Chinese operations—and tempering their outlooks.

Lowered Expectations

Behind the Malaise

Sticking Around