Google Earnings Smash Sales Records

Google’s parent company shattered sales records for the first quarter, fueled by a surge in digital ad spending that has strengthened the tech heavyweight even as regulators try to curtail its power.

The robust earnings reflect advertiser anticipation that the reopening of the economy will coincide with a gusher of business activity, as well as Google’s prominent place at the center of digital commerce.

The pandemic provided a jolt to Alphabet Inc.’s advertising business as more people shifted their lives online during a stay-at-home year, turning to Google search to find takeout meals and grocery-delivery options while clicking through videos on the company’s YouTube platform. Brands responded by shifting ad spending from print, television and in-store promotions to find customers across the Google universe.

Alphabet reported first-quarter sales of $55.31 billion, an increase of 34% from a year earlier when advertising sales plunged as the coronavirus crippled the global economy. Profit more than doubled, with per-share earnings far exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The company posted $31.88 billion in sales from its signature products, including search, Gmail and maps, a 30% increase that reflected the way brands are spending to reach people online. YouTube pulled in $6 billion, increasing 49% from a year earlier.

Total profit reached almost $18 billion, soaring 162% from the previous year.

Google said it would repurchase an additional $50 billion in shares, fulfilling the wishes of investors who had been monitoring the company’s swelling cash reserves.

Alphabet shares gained more than 4% in after-hours trading.

“Google has the wind at its back now,” said Sean Stannard-Stockton, chief investment officer at Ensemble Capital, a Burlingame, Calif., firm with $1.5 billion in assets under management that counts Alphabet among its largest holdings. “It didn’t just glide through Covid. It’s really well positioned and is even stronger,” he said.

As the world’s digital ad leader, Google has been positioned to benefit from a broad wave of online ad growth sweeping across the economy. Smaller rival Snap Inc. last week reported a 66% increase in revenue on strong user growth and increased advertising, while Verizon Communications Inc. posted a 26% increase in ad sales.

The digital-spending surge has helped Google continue to deliver sales growth even as its share of the American search-advertising market slips. The company’s market share of search last year fell to 57% from 61% a year earlier, while rival Amazon.com Inc. increased its share to 19% from 13% over the same period, according to eMarketer, a research firm.

Regulators remain the largest obstacle to Google’s business success. Last year, the Justice Department and a separate coalition of states brought antitrust lawsuits alleging the company has struck secretive agreements to favor its search-engine and advertising businesses and thwart competitors.

The cases could force Google to spin off pieces of its business or cede its perch in search to rivals.

In addition, antitrust lawsuits have been filed by Epic Games Inc. over Google’s Play app store and the publisher Daily Mail over its digital advertising auctions.

Google has said it operates in a competitive market and people use its search service because they choose to, not because they are forced to. It says its Play store operates under policies that are fair to developers and its ad-tech business competes in a crowded marketplace with several alternatives for publishers.

The company continues to spend heavily to ensure Google remains the default search engine on iPhones and other devices. The toll fees, known as traffic-acquisition costs, rose 30% to $9.71 billion during the first quarter from a year earlier.

Google also has been spending to diversify beyond its core ad business with a cloud-computing service that challenges Amazon and Microsoft Corp. The company has been trumpeting a bevy of billion-dollar deals in recent months that lifted sales at the division 46% to $4.05 billion in the quarter.

The company has wooed new clients by packaging its offerings with benefits across its dominant advertising and search businesses. On Monday, it announced an eight-year, $1 billion-plus contract with Spanish-language broadcaster Univision Communications Inc. that it won in part by including YouTube and search elements.

The practice, known as bundling, has drawn criticism from lawmakers who say it undermines competition, but Thomas Kurian, Google’s Cloud chief executive, has said the company is simply responding to consumer needs.

On Monday, Apple Inc. released a software update that will give users the option to prevent apps from tracking their use on iPhones and other devices. The change is expected to pressure Google to implement similar privacy measures on its Android operating system, the world’s largest. Such a maneuver would upend Facebook Inc.’s business, which uses the data collected across mobile devices to target ads to users.

Because of its digital-advertising dominance, Google will have to walk a fine line in introducing privacy restrictions of its own on its mobile operating system. It has drawn criticism from privacy advocates and ad-tech competitors alike over a plan to stop selling ads on individuals’ browsing across multiple websites. Privacy advocates say its plan to group individuals in advertising cohorts doesn’t go far enough, while rivals consider it anticompetitive.

The speed bumps from privacy aren’t expected to slow Alphabet’s moneymaking machine. The company’s search engine has a lock on 92% of world-wide traffic, its Maps offerings have an 89% share of navigation and YouTube accounts for 73% of the online video world.

Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.

When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.

The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.

But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.

Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.

After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.

“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”

The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.

Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.

In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.

Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.

“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”

Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.

“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.

The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.

In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.

Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.

Google Earnings Smash Sales Records

YouTube helps power search giant to profits that far exceeded analyst expectations.

Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.