Users and investors are re-evaluating token-based companies amid the broader cryptocurrency downturn.
4 min
The cryptocurrency rout has spread to startups that offer users digital tokens, pushing down digital asset prices and driving away hordes of users.
The startups—part of what has been called Web3—allowed users to play virtual games and collect digital assets, and the companies’ growth was hinged on interest from people eager to wade into blockchain-based assets. The broader cryptocurrency downturn this year is causing a downturn in users in many Web3 companies, and players and investors are re-evaluating the utility of token-based business models.
“Many crypto companies can only exist by engineering speculation,” said Adam Fisher, a Tel Aviv-based partner at VC firm Bessemer Venture Partners. “The utility of Web3 is not clear at all.”
Investors in 2021 poured more than $4.5 billion into blockchain-based gaming, digital media and commerce companies—popular sectors of Web3 investment—compared with $197 million in 2020, according to data from Crunchbase. The increase mirrored the rise of cryptocurrency investing in Silicon Valley: Last year, venture capitalists invested about $17.9 billion into blockchain-related startups, compared with $2.1 billion in 2020, according to Crunchbase.
Axie Infinity is an online game where users can make money by breeding virtual pets and earning other digital assets on the blockchain, which they can then sell for cash on crypto exchanges. Axie Infinity’s parent company, Vietnam-based Sky Mavis Ltd, along with digital-art creator Yuga Labs and fitness app StepN, offered services they said were part of a new iteration of the internet that distributed ownership and power to users in the form of digital tokens. Venture firms such as Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm raised billions of dollars in new funds dedicated to crypto startups.
Andreessen Horowitz led a $152 million investment into Sky Mavis in October, valuing it at about $3 billion. General partner Arianna Simpson touted Axie Infinity as part of a “play-to-earn revolution,” saying the ability to own and sell in-game digital assets would drive loyalty to the platform. Daily platform users reached a high of 2.7 million in November, according to data from Sky Mavis.
As the crypto boom has crumpled amid inflationary fears and a broader market downturn, the prices of Axie’s in-game tokens crashed, and Axie users fled the platform. As of July 4, the site had 368,456 daily active users, down 86% from November, a drop that came after hackers stole more than $500 million worth of cryptocurrency from the game in March.
Sky Mavis co-founder Aleksander Larsen said the company is in the process of phasing out the older version of Axie Infinity, so future users will have the option of using digital tokens or playing without them.
Proponents of Web3 say the blockchain is a new way to shift economic power from dominant companies such as Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. and institutions like central banks. Over the past few years, it has fueled the rise of sectors such as decentralized finance, where people are able to buy and sell cryptocurrencies validated automatically on the blockchain instead of relying on financial middlemen.
StepN is a fitness app that allows people to earn a token called Green Satoshi based on how much they walk or jog. Users, who earn the tokens after they buy a nonfungible token, or NFT, representing a pair of sneakers, flocked to the platform as the price of the Green Satoshi token increased in the first few months of the year.
In the past two months, the token price has crashed, and the number of monthly active users on the platform dropped more than 30% from May to June, according to data from Dune Analytics. A spokeswoman said the data excludes active users who don’t transfer their tokens for other cryptocurrencies and thus “does not represent the full picture for active users of StepN.” StepN, based in Adelaide, Australia, announced in January it raised $5 million from investors including Sequoia Capital India
Some Web3 companies’ difficulty in keeping users amid the plummeting prices of its tokens has validated some crypto sceptics’ beliefs that there aren’t many instances where consumers have a true use for blockchain-based services.
“What subset of things created in this cycle are going to work? A small subset,” said Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at crypto VC firm Dragonfly Capital. “That’s normal,” he said. The role of venture capital “is to try and find a lot of big ideas, and a few of them work and end up changing the world.”
Some well-funded crypto startups have introduced tokens before they have developed the products associated with those sales. The approach led to early revenue as users bought and started to trade the tokens, driving up their value.
One-year-old startup Yuga Labs and its partners, including gaming firm Animoca Brands, made more than $300 million in revenue by selling a collection of NFTs at the end of April representing unique plots of land in virtual world Otherside. Yuga Labs still hasn’t released Otherside to the public. Since the launch, the NFT’s floor price, or the cost of the cheapest NFT available for sale, has declined more than 70%, according to data from CoinGecko.
The declining price of the NFT for Otherside tracks a broader selloff in the market for NFTs, which were held out last year as a new way to own digital items but so far have been a way to buy luxury items popular within the crypto community. OpenSea, the world’s largest marketplace for such assets, saw $697 million in trading volume in June, down from $4.9 billion in trades in January, according to Dune Analytics.
“I believe that many of these NFTs are just temporary fads and are going to disappear,” said Marcos Veremis, a partner at Accolade Partners, which invests in crypto venture funds including Andreessen Horowitz. He thinks it will take time for NFTs to mature but remains optimistic.
“The current washout that’s happening is very healthy,” he said.
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Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.
3 min
Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.
When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.
The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.
But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.
Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.
After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.
“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”
The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.
Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.
In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.
Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.
“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”
Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.
“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.
The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.
In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.
Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.
