Charitable Gift Annuities Are 0n The Rise

Move over, charitable trusts. Make way for the charitable gift annuity.

Typically viewed as entry-level gifting methods thanks to low minimum contribution amounts, low cost, and simplicity, charitable gift annuities have had a spike in inflows from wealthy donors lately. According to a BNY Mellon Wealth Management study, in 2019, assets in gift annuities were up 21% over the prior year, and the average gift was 56% larger. Assets continued to flow into charitable trusts, but at only a slightly higher level than in 2018.

The surge in popularity in gift annuities is likely a result of people’s desire for a guaranteed lifetime annuity at a time when yields are at historic lows in the fixed-income market, and a hesitation to sock money into a charitable remainder annuity trust (CRAT).

A CRAT is the gift annuity’s equivalent in the trust world, and typically a popular tool. But ultralow interest rates and high valuations in the stock market make for a lousy environment for CRATs, says Crystal Thompkins, national director of gift planning services at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, who expects gift annuities’ popularity to extend through this year.

As winds shift in the economy, the markets, and regulatory environment, it’s not uncommon for the popularity of different charitable planning tools to rise and fall. Given the surge in popularity of gift annuities, it’s worth a look at how they size up these days relative to their closest charitable trust cousin.

Charitable Gift Annuities

A charitable gift annuity is a simple contract guaranteeing that if you give a nonprofit organisation a lump sum, it will pay you a fixed, lifetime annuity based on actuarial factors—a host of market factors combined with your life expectancy. Minimum donations are around $2,000 and, unlike a trust, no attorney is required to set one up (hence no attorney fees).

Even if you live beyond your life expectancy, after your lump-sum equivalent has been paid out, you continue to receive the annuity. Depending on the contract, the annuity can continue to pay out to a surviving spouse. If you and your spouse die before your lump sum has been paid out, the charity keeps the balance in its coffers.

Payments can be deferred, which increases the amount paid out in the future annuity. A partial donation for the gift can be taken upfront. Capital gains taxes on the growth of underlying assets are spread over the annuity payments. When interest rates are low, the future capital gains’ bite out of annuity payments is lower, leaving more intact as income, Thompkins says.

Nonprofit groups that offer charitable annuities have large infrastructures, such as museums and universities. “We’re talking those with hundreds of millions in assets that are segregated to support their annuity programs,” Thompkins says. “These are diverse pools designed to absorb potential risk. It’s like managing a pension.”

The downside is that not all nonprofits offer gift annuities, and they aren’t customised, says Pam Lucina, chief fiduciary officer at Northern Trust.

Charitable Remainder Trusts

In contrast, trusts can pay out to a number of different charities, over a specified period of time instead of a lifetime, and can be used to transfer assets to heirs. The CRAT is the most similar to a gift annuity: It turns a lump sum into an annuity, and what’s left at the end goes to charity—at least 10% of assets transferred to the trust is required to be left as a gift.

But the CRAT has lost its luster lately, Thompkins says. The annuity and future gift are dependent on the high probability of the underlying invested assets performing within certain parameters. With stock market valuations high, and the economy in ragged shape due to Covid-19, there’s good reason for concern that the market could enter a sustained bear market.

“In 2008 and 2009, there were trusts that were exhausted with no benefit to either the charity or the donor,” Thompkins says. “Many people are leery now.”

Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.

When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.

The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.

But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.

Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.

After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.

“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”

The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.

Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.

In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.

Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.

“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”

Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.

“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.

The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.

In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.

Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.

Charitable Gift Annuities Are 0n The Rise

Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.