Art Market Dip Last Year Reflects Lack of Supply, Not Demand - Kanebridge News
Share Button

Art Market Dip Last Year Reflects Lack of Supply, Not Demand

By ABBY SCHULTZ
Sun, Mar 17, 2024 7:00amGrey Clock 3 min

The global market for art may have been softer last year against a more volatile economic backdrop, but trends detailed within the latest annual report from Art Basel and UBS released earlier this week continue to show collectors are willing to buy.

Scanning a chart within the report of sales since 2009 reveals an ebb-and-flow in the overall market, but surprising consistency in the value of transactions and an uptick in volume.

The year-to-year differences, such as the 4% dip in market value to US$65 billion last year, are mostly driven by the number and outcome of big-ticket sales, which declined across auction houses and galleries in 2023.

How many high-value works of art come to market in a given year, however, often has less to do with buying interest from collectors during shaky economic conditions and more to do with the willingness of sellers to part with paintings or sculptures during a time of perceived weakness, according to Matthew Newton, art advisory specialist at UBS Family Office Solutions in New York.

“I don’t think we see an unwillingness to buy those works when they do come to market,” Newton says.

When the economy is weak, estates with less discretion over timing often are the main consignors of expensive art. For example, last fall in New York, Sotheby’s sold works owned by Emily Fisher Landau , a long-time patron who amassed a collection bursting with masterpieces that hadn’t appeared at an auction before.

Sotheby’s single-owner auction of the Fisher Landau collection led to the US$139.4 million sale of Pablo Picasso’s Femme à la montre (the second highest price for a Picasso work at auction); the US$41 million sale of Jasper Johns’ Flags ;  and the record US$18.7 million sale of Agenes Martin’s Grey Stone II —prices that were within or exceeded expectations.

“People are still willing to make trophy purchases,” Newton says. “I don’t think there’s a lack of demand, it’s about a lack of supply.”

Rising interest rates since 2022 arguably could be another factor in slower high-end sales, since wealthy individuals finance about 29% of their art collections, on average, while the ultra-wealthy (those with a net worth above US$50 million) finance as much as 39%, according to a separate report on global collecting trends published late last year from Art Basel and UBS.

But Newton doesn’t believe higher rates played a significant role in the art market last year. The wealthy typically borrow money for business or investment opportunities; if they have a US$500 million art collection on their walls, borrowing against it can be a good source of liquidity. Any impact it has on the market would be “within the margin of error,” Newton says.

Another chart in the report tracks sales growth from 2009 through 2023 in five segments of the auction market, from works sold below US$50,000 to those achieving US$10 million or more. The results show the performance of most works of art that are sold—that is, those that fall below the US$10 million level—has been “relatively flat over a decade plus,” Newton says. “It’s really those works that are over US$10 million … that’s where we see growth in the art market.”

At auction, the US$10 million-plus segment fell a substantial 25% in 2023 from the previous year, but overall, the sales trend for those ultra-expensive paintings since 2009 has been on an upward trajectory. That’s no accident, considering the population of billionaires who fuel those sales has also continued to rise, with their wealth doubling over the last 10 years to about US$13.1 billion, according to the report.

“It’s a relatively very small group of people who can spend over US$10 million on artwork,” Newton says. Of those who can afford to, not everyone does, meaning a few individuals can alter total sales for the whole market.

In part, that’s because global art sales are relatively small even at US$65 billion. Consider the global private-equity market—another place where the wealthiest individuals place their money—was estimated to reach US$16.3 trillion last year, according to London data firm Preqin.

“$65 billion … that’s obviously a lot of money,” he says. “On the other hand, that’s the entire art market—it’s like less than half the net worth of a few individuals.”

Newton says he often reminds clients that not that much art that exists in the world is sold. “What is traded is a very, very small percentage of the work that’s out there.”



MOST POPULAR

BNW Developments has established a Sydney presence, joining Arada and Sobha Realty among the growing number of UAE developers pursuing Australian buyers and development opportunities.

The Australian leather house has opened an immersive four-day pop-up in Manhattan, unveiling its Bloom Collection and redefining what a product launch can look like.

Related Stories
Lifestyle
AI Agents Are a Threat to Travel Businesses. Airbnb Could Still Be a Winner.
By David Wainer 13/10/2026
Lifestyle
Amazon in Talks to Buy AI Startup Decart for Around $7 Billion
By Kate Clark and Lauren Thomas 12/10/2026
Money
How Families Can Beat 7% Mortgage Rates and Lower Their Tax Bills
By Laura Saunders 09/10/2026

Strong family financial planning can help reduce taxes and support younger generations. From intrafamily loans and asset gifts to inheritance disclaimers, strategic cooperation can create meaningful financial benefits—when families have the trust and structure to make it work.

By Laura Saunders
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 4 min

Happy is the family whose members—parents, grandparents and grown children—trust each other enough to cooperate on shared goals, especially financial ones. When that is truly the case, Uncle Sam’s tax rules can help as well.

This matters especially now that mortgage rates are above 7%, and many families are looking for ways to help younger members. If the elders have resources and are confident younger ones can cooperate, a family loan could make homeownership possible while providing the elders with a useful income stream.

Other strategies can actually lower taxes, such as when funding 529 plans or Roth IRAs, or when someone inherits a traditional IRA with required withdrawals larger than they will need.

Here are three strategies useful for functional families.

Intrafamily loans

It is perfectly legal for families to lend money to a relative for a down payment or even a private mortgage.

But it is important not to cut corners, says Ryan McKeown, a CPA with Modern Wealth Enhancement in Minnesota. If the loan is for a down payment, be honest with the mortgage provider and have a formal agreement. The lender owes tax on the interest payments received.

If the loan is for a private mortgage, both sides should have legal representation with a formal written agreement, including payment terms. The lender owes tax on the interest, and the borrower often can deduct it if he or she itemizes.

To avoid IRS trouble, the interest rate shouldn’t be lower than the agency’s Applicable Federal Rate at the time of the loan. Currently that is about 5% for loans longer than nine years; about 4.5% for loans three to nine years; and about 4% for loans three years or less. Currently, traditional mortgage rates are generally above 7%.

In addition, the lender could use the $19,000 annual gift-tax exemption (described below) to forgive some or all of the interest or principal annually. If both lenders and borrowers are married, that is up to $76,000 a year. There is no tax for the borrower on such forgiveness, because it is from a gift.

If you’re going this route, McKeown advises against having a fixed plan to forgive the debt. Instead, do it in one-off letters specifying the amount—and keep careful records. Otherwise the IRS might try to treat the loan as a taxable gift.

Asset gifts

Powerful tax-saving moves for families often use gift-tax provisions. Under current law, anyone can give anyone else up to $19,000 of assets annually, free of gift tax. That means a married couple with three grandchildren could give them a total of $114,000 in 2026.

The gifts can be cash or other assets, like stock. For noncash gifts, the cost basis—which is the starting point for measuring taxable gain after a sale—“carries over” to the recipient. So if someone buys $1,000 of stock and gives it away when it is worth $5,000, the recipient’s cost basis is $1,000. If the recipient later sells the shares for $8,000, the taxable gain is $7,000.

Here’s an example showing how gifts could save a family taxes. Grandma is a widow of modest means, while her child and spouse have prospered. The couple has two children, and they want to contribute $5,000 to a 529 college-savings plan for each—but they need to sell stock to do it. Their tax rate on the sale would be 18.8%, and they would need to sell about $11,000 of stock.

However, Grandma’s federal tax rate on the stock sale is 0%. If the couple gives $10,000 of shares to Grandma, she could sell them, pay no tax, and fund the grandchildren’s 529 plans. This saves about $1,000 of tax.

These moves are legal, and they could be used in other ways, such as to help a young person fund a Roth IRA.

But trust among family members is essential: Under the law, givers can’t put conditions on a gift. Grandma could use her stock proceeds to take a cruise, but she makes 529 contributions instead.

Mark Sellner, a retired tax attorney and CPA living in Sarasota, Fla., uses this strategy. His children sell stock he gives them and fund 529 plans for his grandchildren.

The family’s tax savings aren’t huge, but he likes other benefits. The sales by his children don’t boost his adjusted gross income, which in turn could raise his Medicare Irmaa premiums or his 3.8% surtax on net investment income.

Sellner doesn’t worry about his children using the funds for another purpose.

“There can’t be any strings attached to gifts. Of course, it is up to us to decide whether to make them in the future,” he says.

Two caveats: The “kiddie tax” applies to most children under age 24, and it is levied at the parents’ rate on investment income above $2,700 in 2026. Consider this before making gifts to a young person.

Investors who give away stock also forgo the step-up, an important provision that exempts assets held at death from capital-gains tax.

Sellner knows he’s losing a step-up, but says, “The children could use a little more now. Why should they wait 20 years to get it?”

Disclaimers

A disclaimer is a highly useful strategy in which one heir renounces an inheritance in favor of another heir. Assuming family members cooperate, this can save taxes.

Here’s one example. Dad died and had a large traditional IRA that he left to Mom. She has enough assets and income to cover her expenses, and she lives in a state with a stiff estate tax. The inherited IRA would put her estate over the threshold.

Also surviving are three young-adult children. If Mom disclaims all or part of Dad’s IRA within nine months of his death, that amount could go directly to the children. They will have 10 years to empty the account, and the family as a whole will likely save estate and income taxes.

Disclaimers have many key details, especially regarding beneficiary documents. Although heirs have great freedom in choosing what assets to disclaim, the rules about who gets disclaimed property are rigid. It is best if the original owner names tiers of heirs so that if one disclaims, the next recipient is clear.