Polarisation has for years left the country’s politics stuck in an unpopular middle ground, and the latest elections won’t change that
2 min
When it comes to France’s turbulent politics , the current impasse is probably the best investors could have hoped for.
The second round of French legislative elections delivered a widely expected hung parliament, but not its predicted makeup: Rather than coming in first, Marine Le Pen ’s far-right and anti-immigrant National Rally finished third. In a shock twist , the leftist New Popular Front alliance emerged victorious, with the party of President Emmanuel Macron and its allies in second place.
This is because leftists and centrists ended up coordinating. In many local races, candidates dropped out to avoid dividing the vote against the far right. Still, no party has an outright majority, which plunges the country into political gridlock. This was, counterintuitively, the preferred outcome for financial markets.
The CAC 40 initially tumbled when the elections were called in June, driven by fears of a potential National Rally government challenging the European Union with fiscally expansive plans. Then the French stock benchmark perked up, as the first-round results suggested that the far-right wouldn’t get a majority.
Yet markets remained volatile because the rise of the New Popular Front raised even greater concerns. The policies of this coalition, in which leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a key leader, also include more public spending, on top of widespread tax increases. Indeed, the CAC 40 closed down 0.6% Monday, probably reflecting investors’ concerns about these parties potentially managing to form a new government. Mélenchon has stated that there will be no deals with the centrists.
These worries seem overblown. Yes, there are doubts about how France will handle its budget deficit, which amounted to 5.5% of gross domestic product in 2023 and has forced the EU to launch an “excessive deficit procedure” against the country. Macron may need to accept the reversal of reforms such as a higher retirement age.
Still, a fiscal crisis isn’t in the cards, because the European Central Bank is ultimately in control of France’s bond market.
As for economic growth, it is unclear how much impact Macron’s policies have had in the first place, particularly given resistance from unions and swaths of the public, which resulted in the famous “yellow vest” protests in 2018 and 2020.
What matters for sectors battered in the stock market, including banks, energy firms and infrastructure operators, is that the risk of widespread tax increases, nationalisations and a prolonged standoff with Brussels seems smaller now than a few weeks ago. Whatever Mélenchon says, the left will either have to compromise or else form a minority government that might scare investors but wouldn’t be able to pass laws.
So there isn’t much justification for the lower valuation of lenders such as Société Générale and especially BNP Paribas —one of Europe’s most interesting banks that now trades at 0.65 times tangible book value. The same is likely true for firms such as energy utility Engie and infrastructure-concessions leader Vinci , which have lost 8% of their market value since the end of May.
These elections are more a symptom of Macron’s weakness than its cause. After a chaotic month, French politics is back where it has been for years, with a rising far right forcing the left to back a centrist platform that can achieve little because few people actually like it. Macron himself became president on an anti-Le Pen ticket, but in seven years has failed to rally broad support for his pro-business vision.
This could eventually make Le Pen’s victory inevitable, as she claimed after initial results came in. For now, though, it is more or less what markets ordered.
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Gold miners are emerging as a compelling way to navigate market uncertainty, with analysts pointing to strong cash flows, attractive valuations and rising profit margins. As gold prices stabilize above US$4,000 an ounce, mining stocks could offer investors both downside protection and long-term upside.
3 min
Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.
The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.
Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.
Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.
These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.
Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.
Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.
Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.
“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.
“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.
Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.
“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.
That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.
“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.
They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.
An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.
What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.
One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.
But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.
