A Car That Costs as Much as a House Is the Latest ‘Dream’ of America’s Upper Middle Class

When Lamborghini announced its end-of-an-era Huracán Super Trofeo Jota last April, in an edition of just 10, it sold out immediately. No price was announced, though it was probably above US$400,000. That hardly deterred buyers eager to own one of the last Huracán supercars.

Ferrari’s limited-edition 812 Competizione and 812 Competizione A in 2021? The 999 hardtops (US$598,567) and 599 targas (US$694,549) were gone very quickly, though maybe not in 60 seconds.

Meanwhile, the Rolls-Royce Black Badge Cullinan “Blue Shadow Private Collection” cars that appeared in 2023, just 62 in number, disappeared within two weeks. Black Badge Series II Cullinans start at US$470,000 for 2025, but these special editions are pricier—more than US$600,000.

“The primary driver for Rolls-Royce Cullinan clients is not price, but a combination of lifestyle and personalised exclusivity,” says Martin Fritsches, president and CEO of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars North America.

The global supercar market was US$17.5 billion in 2023, reports MarketResearch.biz, but it could soar to US$24.9 billion by 2033. Supercars, Business Research Insights says, “are a symbol of luxury, performance and status, appealing to affluent buyers who seek exclusivity and the thrill of driving a high-powered machine. … With a growing global economy and increasing wealth, the demand for supercars continues to rise.”

In the U.S., the American International Automobile Dealers Association reported that luxury brand deliveries in 2023 were more than 2.6 million, accounting for 17% of U.S. light-vehicle sales. That was up from 2.2 million sales in 2021 (and a 14.7% share).

Supercar sales represent small totals, but big potential profits. It’s a niche with an increasing number of startups, including battery cars from companies such as Lucid and Rimac. Ferrari, for instance, reported a US$1.36 billion profit in 2023, a yearly record. That’s despite producing only 13,221 units in the year. Ferrari has typically produced between 8,000 and 11,000 cars annually, but it’s one of the world’s most written-about, admired, and sought-after brands.

And Lamborghini had its best year in 2023, with an operating profit of US$777 million. That’s on sales of 10,100 globally. But each sale was a big ticket: The Huracán buyer in 2023 paid between US$212,090 and US$340,690. Volume didn’t help Tesla all that much. The company sold 1.8 million vehicles globally in 2023 (and had the world’s best-selling car in the Model Y), but has been experiencing declining profits.

This year, the supercar and luxury carmakers are revelling in the power of special editions and the one-of-one “bespoke” commission. Without having to make major changes to their existing models, the companies are able to greatly increase the price—via distinctive colours, interior appointments, and personalisation. Perhaps Tesla would do better if it too delved deeper into accommodating its eager customers with vast personalisation possibilities. Who wouldn’t want a one-of-10 SpaceX Edition of the Model Y?

Meanwhile, established supercar makers are rapidly transitioning to electric and hybrid drive, motivated by international regulations that will ban internal-combustion engines by 2035. Maserati, for instance, is introducing electric “Folgore” versions of its GranCabrio convertible this year, and MC20 supercar in 2025. There will be a new electric SUV in 2027 and a four-door battery Quattroporte in 2028. Electrification is not likely to lead to either lower prices or lower demand, but there’s no certainty.

The Collector Market Is Cruising, Too

The market for collector vehicles above US$200,000 also remains quite healthy. The US$143 million paid for the 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupe in 2022 surpassed the results of any other car sold at auction by more than US$90 million.

This 1955 Mercedes-Benz coupe broke records when it sold for $142m in 2022

Critics who said that high-dollar buyers would never buy US$200,000-plus cars online (without seeing them in person) have been proven dramatically wrong, and the increase in online buying on sites like Bring a Trailer (BaT) and Cars & Bids has stoked rising values.

“March 2024 was the largest-volume month in our Premium Listings category since we launched it in 2019,” says Randy Nonnenberg, president and co-founder of BaT. “April 2024 followed on with 64 vehicles selling at over US$200,000 in value, with the top sale a Bugatti Chiron at US$3.075 million.”

Offerings in that price range from a US$250,000 1932 Ford hot rod coupe and a Lexus LFA to modern Ferraris and Ford GTs, Nonnenberg says. “The low transaction fees of our online platform make it very attractive for buyers of these expensive items when compared to other venues.”

Pre-owned supercars (and adjacent American muscle) often appreciate in the marketplace, with the rare (and most powerful) ones commanding huge prices.

“The strong US$3.5 million paid at our Amelia Island auction in March 2024 for a Porsche 918 Spyder Weissach—as well as many other strong prices for contemporary supercars—demonstrates the strength in this segment,” says David Gooding , president of the Gooding and Company international auction house. Seven cars priced at more than US$10 million were offered at auction last year, reports Hagerty, with as many as 10 expected in 2024.

McKeel Hagerty , CEO and chairman at Hagerty, says the US$200,000 price point is an interesting one in the enthusiast car market.

“With a budget like that, you can buy some fantastic classics with a rich history, late-model supercars, or you can build a wide variety of the latest restomods [older cars restored with modern amenities],” Hagerty says. “These are the dream cars of the American upper-middle class.”

Hagerty says that US$200,000 would buy “a great, early Porsche 911 S or Jaguar Series 1 E-Type Roadster.” A supercar car lover might also find a Lamborghini Huracán or Ferrari 458 with “weapons-grade performance” in the price range, or a Plymouth Superbird and ‘66 Mustang GT350, he adds.

A rare 2015 Porsche 918 Spyder Weissach supercar

Despite the demand, Brian Rabold, vice president at Hagerty Automotive Intelligence, says that high-priced cars don’t necessarily appreciate as fast as some others when they age.

“In the past five years, the 87 vehicle generations in the Hagerty Price Guide with an average value between US$200,000 and US$500,000 have seen an average value growth of 9.24%. This lags behind the 35% average value growth seen in the remaining 1,351 vehicle generations,” Rabold says.

Nevertheless, he says the future “looks bright” for the US$200,000 to US$500,000 segment. “These vehicles are becoming more popular among collectors. Surprisingly, Baby Boomers (who hold most of the wealth in the country) are not driving this growth.” Hagerty is seeing more queries from Gen-X.

“Owning a desirable car or truck that you can drive, or show is much more fun than storing your stock certificates in a safe,” says Craig Jackson , chairman and CEO of the Barrett-Jackson auction house. “Plus, it can offer a long-term upside if you research before you buy.”

Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.

For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.

The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.

Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.

“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.

Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.

Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.

Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.

“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.

Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.

“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”

Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.

Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”

The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.

The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.

These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.

Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.

Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.

Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.

And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.

“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”

A Car That Costs as Much as a House Is the Latest ‘Dream’ of America’s Upper Middle Class

Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.