It could reduce Asia-Pacific’s gross domestic product by 17% in 2070, ADB says.
3 min
Countries in Asia-Pacific will need to spend big to adapt to climate change. But the cost of inaction could be higher, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank.
Left unchecked, climate change could punch a 17%-sized hole in the region’s economic growth over the next decades, the Manila-based bank said Thursday.
“The window to stay within the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing,” the ADB said.
The international treaty aims to limit the average rise in global temperatures to that threshold, beyond which experts expect climate change to have increasingly disastrous consequences. In the nine years since the agreement was adopted, inaction has put that goal nearly out of reach, the multilateral bank said.
With greenhouse-gas emissions reaching record highs, nations need to dramatically increase—and immediately start delivering—efforts to get on track for 1.5°C, a United Nations Environment Programme report said last week. Failure to do so will lead to debilitating impacts to economies, the report said.
Asia-Pacific’s position in the climate crisis is a tricky one: it’s both home to some of the most vulnerable economies and a major polluter, contributing over 50% of global GHG emissions.
If emissions breach critical levels, ADB estimates climate change could reduce Asia-Pacific’s gross domestic product by 17% in 2070. Rising sea levels threaten coastal assets and populations, while heat waves would sap labor supply and productivity, and climate-dependent sectors like agriculture, forestry, and fisheries face shocks that will stifle output.
Estimates from the Deloitte Economics Institute calculate that about 75% of Asia-Pacific’s GDP is at high risk of climate disruption. This stands to affect at least half of the world’s labor force, which is in the region and in vulnerable industries. Climate inaction could lead to regional economic losses of about $96 trillion by 2070, the institute said in a report.
Asian countries have made strides toward decarbonising, but just maintaining policies implemented so far will lead to dangerous levels of global warming, the ADB said.
Taking the right type of action won’t come cheap. Estimates for Asia vary widely, in part due to different geographical definitions, but consensus is that funding is well below where it needs to be.
The ADB report estimates Asia-Pacific needs to invest anywhere from $102 billion to $431 billion annually to adapt to climate change. That far exceeds the $34 billion committed over 2021-2022.
Globally, the U.N. calculates the net-zero transition needs $0.9 trillion to $2.1 trillion a year between 2021 and 2050. That “is substantial but manageable in the broader context of the close-to-US$110 trillion global economy and financial markets.”
It remains technically possible to get on a 1.5°C pathway, as solutions like solar and wind power hold promise for fast, sweeping emissions cuts, the U.N. report said.
Getting back on track could be a big boost for Asia-Pacific economies.
The region is well-placed to benefit from the energy transition, the ADB said. It has massive potential for renewable-energy generation and can produce some of the world’s cheapest renewable electricity, it said. Advantages like fast-growing economies, a large workforce and strong manufacturing base equip Asia to develop the technologies needed for global decarbonisation.
That presents a wealth of opportunities for investors.
If governments formulate consistent policies and build climate-oriented financial systems, that can draw the private capital that’s key to plugging the funding gap, ADB said.
Policy uncertainty over could deter investment, particularly in the case of a change of political administrations. Investors hold more sustainable assets when countries adopt climate laws, and misaligned policies reduce incentives for private investors, ADB said.
That is particularly relevant in a year that has seen elections across Asia, including in India, Indonesia and Japan. The upcoming presidential election in the U.S. is in especially sharp focus as the outcome has implications for climate-change efforts.
That’s because of the U.S.’s role as a key player in green innovation and international cooperation on climate commitments and financing, as well as a major trading partner, said ADB principal economist Shu Tian.
Policy uncertainty from a key player can significantly affect the international climate agenda, she said.
“The U.S.’s stance on climate action influences the low-carbon transition through market mechanisms, affecting consumers, suppliers, and investors,” she said. “This, in turn, could impact climate investments across the [APAC] region.”
Copyright 2020, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. LEARN MORE
The Australian leather house has opened an immersive four-day pop-up in Manhattan, unveiling its Bloom Collection and redefining what a product launch can look like.
Following the successful launch of its Palais Collection, MAISON de SABRÉ has unveiled a new modular handbag system offering more than 720 styling combinations.
Gold miners are emerging as a compelling way to navigate market uncertainty, with analysts pointing to strong cash flows, attractive valuations and rising profit margins. As gold prices stabilize above US$4,000 an ounce, mining stocks could offer investors both downside protection and long-term upside.
3 min
Gold is one of the market’s go-to hedges in rocky times. Don’t forget that gold miners’ stocks are too.
The stock market’s gains in 2026 belie the rocky macroeconomic picture: elevated inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and jitters about the artificial-intelligence trade. That backdrop, in theory, should be the time for gold to shine. Instead, the price of the yellow metal has tumbled more than 5% so far, after last year’s blistering 65% rally. In part, the U.S. dollar’s recovery has stymied gold, which benefited from the greenback’s weakness in 2025.
Even with the precious metal’s recent weakness, gold mining stocks could be the best way to profit from this year’s uncertainty.
Gold miners “are a valuable hedge against macro risks that would likely be damaging for equities,” BCA Research’s Noah Weisberger and Rishabh Shah wrote this week.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves to tackle inflation, the increasingly crowded AI trade, and steep valuations for tech stocks are just some of the drivers that could help gold’s price get on even footing— and lead to even bigger gains for miner stocks.
These stocks’ prices tend to outpace gold’s moves, because the companies have fixed operational costs. So when gold’s price rallies, their profit margins soar, and vice versa. For instance, the VanEck Gold Miners GDX +7.39% exchange-traded fund has fallen 11% this year as the metal has slumped.
Now, gold’s price just needs to stabilize to help miners’ stocks take off, and that seems to be happening. The precious metal has recently found support above the $4,000 level, and has stuck in a narrow range since the end of June. But its price rose ever so slightly in July, ending a four-month losing streak for the metal. Technical analysis also suggests that gold is due for a comeback.
Barron’s recently wrote that the pullbacks for both gold miners and the metal itself are overdone. Senior technical analyst Doug Busch noted that the VanEck ETF is on the “verge of a breakout” and has the potential to hit $11o in early 2027, up more than 40% from its current price.
Gold miners also have more than their role as a market hedge going for them. Their fundamentals are solid, too, says Chris Mancini, portfolio co-manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.
“Precious metals miners are generating substantial amounts of free cash flow given profit margins of over $2,000 per ounce, and are returning this cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends,” he said in an email.
“Buying the miners is a cheap way to get exposure to the price of gold,” he added. His fund owns Newmont NEM +6.71%, a Barron’s stock pick last year, and Agnico Eagle Mines as top holdings, as well as miners Northern Star Resources, Endeavour Mining, and Kinross Gold K+8.59%.
Miners are better businesses than they used to be, the BCA team added.
“Capex is more disciplined, margins are high and rising…and they are largely independent of the AI story,” Weisberger, BCA’s head of equities, and Shah, a senior analyst, wrote.
That last part is key. AI is disrupting the software industry and many other services and information-oriented businesses, and investors have piled into AI stocks. But ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and other large-language models aren’t going to replace the need to mine for metals.
“Equity portfolios can benefit from exposure to quality that is uncorrelated to AI risk, and gold miners fit the bill,” the BCA team said.
They recommend that investors buy the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which owns top miners such as Agnico, Barrick Mining ABX +7.24%, and Newmont.
An important bonus for big gold miners’ stocks is that their valuations are attractive after the gold’s pullback, too. The VanEck ETF is now trading at just a little more than nine times next year’s earnings estimates. That’s a big discount to its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 14, according to FactSet.
What’s more, the ETF is currently valued at a more than 50% discount to the S&P 500 SPX -0.17%, which is trading for about 19 times earnings estimates for 2027. Mining stocks have typically traded at just a 25% discount to the broader market over the past five years. So there is significant upside for the group if valuations move back toward normal levels.
One factor that complicates mining stocks as a market hedge, of course, is if stocks bounce back, which has been the case so far in August.
But both the market and economic outlooks remain cloudy, and investors remain nervous about the Fed’s next moves and AI stocks. Gold miners should do just fine, even if the anxious mood on Wall Street persists.
