Organization is showing flexibility by allowing the bitcoin program to proceed in a limited way
2 min
The government of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele agreed to scale back his ambitious plan to adopt bitcoin as a national currency in exchange for a much-needed $1.4 billion loan by the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF said in a statement Wednesday that in exchange for the financial-aid program to support the Bukele administration economic overhaul agenda, the government agreed to implement measures to mitigate bitcoin-related risks.
The deal signals an important shift by the IMF, showing greater flexibility over government use and regulation of bitcoin in anticipation of friendlier crypto policies by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump , said Alejandro Werner , a former director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department.
Bukele’s surprise decision to make bitcoin legal tender was cheered by crypto enthusiasts but stalled financial support from the IMF in the midst of concern that the volatile crypto asset could rock the finances of the impoverished and indebted Central American nation.
“In a situation where the international financial community didn’t want to set a precedent on the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, it became an obstacle to close an agreement with the IMF,” said Werner, who also served as adviser to El Salvador’s government and currently heads the Georgetown Americas Institute in Washington, D.C.
The use of bitcoin as a national currency in this country of around 6.5 million didn’t take off, surveys show. After the government spent more than $200 million in 2021 rolling out bitcoin ATMs and an e-wallet with $30 of free bitcoin for anyone who signed up, most users took the virtual currency to buy goods or exchange it for dollars.
The government began purchasing bitcoin when it was trading at about $30,000, booking losses at first and then posting significant gains as its volatile price surpassed $100,000 recently.
Among the concessions made by the Bukele administration, acceptance of bitcoin by the country’s businesses will no longer be mandatory, while the public sector’s participation in bitcoin-related activities will be restricted, the IMF said.
“The potential risks of the bitcoin project will be diminished significantly” in line with fund policies, the IMF said.
Under the agreement, El Salvador’s government agreed to reduce bitcoin purchases, and it will no longer accept tax payments with the crypto asset. The government’s participation in Chivo, the crypto e-wallet launched in 2021, will be gradually unwound, the IMF said.
“Transparency, regulation, and supervision of digital assets will be enhanced to safeguard financial stability, consumer and investor protection, and financial integrity,” it added.
Bukele highlighted on X the IMF’s remarks about the steady expansion of the country’s economy since the pandemic, bolstered by “robust remittances and a remarkable pickup in tourism,” in the midst of improvements in public security.
Copyright 2020, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. LEARN MORE
The Australian leather house has opened an immersive four-day pop-up in Manhattan, unveiling its Bloom Collection and redefining what a product launch can look like.
Following the successful launch of its Palais Collection, MAISON de SABRÉ has unveiled a new modular handbag system offering more than 720 styling combinations.
Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
