For These Collectors, It’s Still All About the Cash
Rare banknotes can yield big bucks, if you know what to look for
Rare banknotes can yield big bucks, if you know what to look for
Even as the world increasingly moves toward digitised commerce, where transactions are conducted with the tap of a credit card and billions of dollars are moved electronically between banks, there is one group of people for whom hard cash is still king: collectors.
As an alternative asset class, collectible banknotes offer significant potential value to investors, and the market for these paper artefacts is thriving. Aris Maragoudakis , director of world currency auctions at Stack’s Bowers Galleries in Costa Mesa, Calif., estimates the hobby sees annual trade of well over $500 million globally.
In fiscal year 2016, the World Paper Money department at Stack’s recorded about $4 million in sales. By fiscal year 2024, this figure had risen to $14.5 million. The company reported an 18% increase in sales for world paper money (which doesn’t include U.S. paper-money numbers) in fiscal year 2023, followed by 25% growth in fiscal year 2024.
Elsewhere, the Noonans Mayfair London realised £5 million, or about $6.5 million, in world banknote sales in 2023, up from £2.5 million the previous year, a representative said.
The rise of digital technology has helped broaden the base of collectors. Online auctions, forums and databases have made it easier for collectors to connect, trade and research. Greater access to information about collectible money, as well as to collectible banknotes themselves, have transformed the hobby from a game of chance to a strategic pursuit where enthusiasts can actively search for and acquire valuable pieces.
“The advent of social media such as Instagram and WhatsApp have brought in a spate of new collectors, especially youngsters,” says Rezwan Razack , a specialist in vintage banknotes and chairman of the Indian chapter of the International Bank Notes Society, or IBNS.
While social media has made more people aware of older paper currencies and their histories, the declining use of physical banknotes has made them even more alluring and fascinating to collectors.
Banknotes routinely become obsolete due to political shifts, security upgrades, monetary policies and technological advancements. The question is: Which ones are worthy possessions?
A plethora of factors underpin the desirability of collectible paper money. The major ones are:
• Condition: The condition of a piece can have a significant impact on its value. “There are bills that sell for $1,000 with a fold or two, but finding one free of any folds, stains, or tears could be worth several times that,” says Maragoudakis.
The condition of a bill is evaluated based on a 30-point scale ranging from poor to uncirculated crisp. Within each condition, a bill is given a number grade; a higher number—on a scale typically from 1 to 70—means the banknote is in better shape.
For example, a 10,000-yuan note issued in 1951 by the People’s Bank of China, graded Very Fine 20, sold for $150,000 at a Stack’s Bowers auction. Three years later at another Stack’s Bowers auction, a similar note in better condition, graded Almost Uncirculated 50, fetched $358,500.
• Serial number : Banknotes with striking serial numbers are often worth more to collectors than those without. On eBay, a rare polymer £20 bill with the serial number AA44 444444 received 16 bids and sold for more than £317.
A set of four exceptionally rare Chinese 1953 10 yuan notes from the People’s Bank of China recently sold for $432,000 because in addition to their quality, they were consecutive in serial number.
• Scarcity : The appeal and worth of banknotes, as with other collectibles, are often tied to their rarity.
For instance, high-value banknotes were often printed in limited quantities due to their significant purchasing power, says Hakim Hamdani , director at large and a collector at the Netherlands branch of the IBNS. When these high-denomination notes are discontinued, many people cash them in rather than keeping them as collectibles.
Take the 1921 10,000-shilling note from British East Africa (now Kenya and Tanzania), of which few were printed and issued. At that time, it was equivalent to about $2,000, a substantial sum in 1920s colonial Africa. When they were demonetised, most were redeemed, making the few remaining in private hands highly desirable.
Dennis Hengeveld , president of World Banknote Auctions in Sacramento, Calif., says that depending on the condition, some of these notes have fetched between $35,000 and just over $100,000 at auctions.
A rare $500 Canadian bill from 1911 brought C$528,750 (about $386,400) at a recent auction, the largest sum ever paid for a Canadian banknote. The specimen features the image of Queen Mary and is one of only four of the bills known to exist.
• Error notes : Governments often withdraw banknotes from circulation to deter counterfeiting, but also due to printing anomalies such as incorrect signatures, numerical discrepancies, misprints and typographical errors. Such deviations can elevate their value among enthusiasts.
In the U.S., double denominations—such as a front displaying a $10 bill and the reverse displaying a $20 bill—are the most prized error notes. The value of some of these pieces could top $85,000, according to Heritage Auctions.
Despite the potential for a lucrative return, experts say the primary motivation for building a collection should be enjoyment and an appreciation of the history that banknotes provide. It would be best to build a collection with the idea of having fun, says Hengeveld of World Banknote Auctions, which was recently acquired by Stack’s Bowers.
Of course, it’s essential to do your due diligence to avoid fraud. Always buy notes from established dealers and confirm their authenticity with reputable grading services. Independent grading companies such as Paper Money Guaranty and Professional Coin Grading Service provide authentication and grading to ensure notes are genuine and their condition accurately assessed.
Auction houses and local dealers offer currency notes in different price ranges. Online retailers (eBay, Amazon.com, Collectibles & Currency), dealers and galleries (Certified Coin Exchange, George H. LaBarre), and numismatic shows (the MIF Paper Money Fair and World’s Fair of Money) are other useful sources.
As well, there is no shortage of stories where people discovered highly valuable collectible banknotes in attics, books, dressers and photo frames of deceased family members. In Ontario, a rare Canadian $500 bill from 1911 was discovered among the personal belongings of a deceased individual. The nearly discarded banknote, one of only three in existence, brought $322,000 at auction.
Those looking to dip their toes into collectible money may find valuable insights in trade magazines including Bank Note Reporter and the Greensheet, or books such as the U.S. Error Note Encyclopedia and Standard Guide to Small-Size U.S. Paper Money.
Additionally, Paper Money Guaranty, the Smithsonian Learning Lab and other websites can offer a wealth of information on various aspects of grading, collecting and how to properly care for banknotes.
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”