Future Returns: Investing In The Circular Economy

The shift to a global economy based on reusing, repairing, and recycling—instead of making things, using them, and then throwing them away—is gaining traction as a sustainable investing theme.

Today, only 8.6% of the global economy is circular as the world consumes 100 billion tons of materials a year, according to Circle Economy, an Amsterdam-based global impact group.

Closing the loop on how goods are produced and consumed can address the problems created by depleting the Earth’s resources, in addition to the problems of pollution and climate change. According to the U.K.’s Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 45% of global greenhouse-gas emissions are generated by the creation and use of products and food, while the rest is generated by the use of energy.

Rising environmental challenges such as drought, fires, and flooding, in addition to changing consumer preferences and government regulation, are driving companies big and small to break away from a reliance on finite resources and to seek other solutions, says Jessica Matthews, head of sustainable investing at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

That means, “by 2030, the circular economy could yield up to US$4.5 trillion in economic benefits globally,” she says. The benefits? “Saving 92 million tons of textiles in landfills, 1.3 billion tons of food waste, and 45 trillion gallons of water wasted through food production every year,” she says.

This multi-trillion dollar opportunity is leading growth-oriented, as well as sustainability-minded, investors to pay attention to this growing theme, as the push to create a circular economy drives innovation and new business models.

“Companies are innovating to tackle the challenge,” Matthews says. “That’s why it’s a growth story.”

The private bank currently has about US$12.5 billion in client assets invested in sustainable strategies across 100 funds on its platform, Matthews says. The assets are in all kinds of vehicles, from exchange-traded funds to private equity—and represent a range of investing approaches.

Matthews recently spoke with Penta about the potential for investing in the circular economy today.

The Business Case

What makes the circular economy an investing opportunity is that companies stand to profit more by reusing, refurbishing, and repairing products rather than sourcing virgin materials to make them, Matthews says.

Circular practices already are being used by clothing companies as well as technology and manufacturing companies, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation said in a September report titled “Financing the Circular Economy.”

In 2019, the resale market for fashion, including companies such as the RealReal, grew 25 times faster than the broader retail sector, while Philips, a Dutch conglomerate, reported 13% of revenues resulting from its circular practices.

In addition to major companies that are reforming how they make things—such as Unilever’s pledge to cut its use of virgin plastics in half by 2025—small companies are sprouting up to facilitate the shift, the report said.

Examples include RePack, based in Helsinki, which makes reusable, returnable packaging for products bought online, and Algramo, a Chilean startup, which allows consumers to refill cleaning products made by companies such as Procter & Gamble and Nestlé.

The move away from plastics for packaging is expected to create a US$700 million demand for corrugated cardboard in Europe and the U.S., the foundation said.

Investing Opportunities

According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation there are 10 public stock funds globally focused on the circular economy, either in full or in part, including BlackRock’s BGF Circular Economy Fund, the Geneva-based Decalia Asset Management’s Decalia Circular Economy fund, and BNP Paribas’s Easy ECPI Circular Economy Leaders UCITS ETF.

There were also at least 10 corporate bonds issued globally with the assistance of major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, with proceeds either in full or in part dedicated to circular practices, the foundation said. Issuers include Alphabet’s US$5.75 billion sustainability bond (with a circular economy component), Daiken Corp.’s JPY5 billion (US$46 million) bond, and Owens Corning’s US$450 million bond.

Private market equity, debt, and venture capital funds are also on the rise—there were 30 funds as of the first half of last year, up from three in 2016, the foundation said.

At J.P. Morgan, Matthews is evaluating the available public mutual funds and is looking to bring one on its platform. Since many of the companies involved in the circular economy today are in niche businesses, “you have to be careful about how limiting you are in your universe,” she says.

Public funds focused broadly on companies with the best environmental, social, and governance practices also buy stocks of corporations on the leading edge of the circular economy, even if these companies—such as Unilever, Adidas, and Nike —don’t represent a distinct circular economy story.

J.P. Morgan is also looking at private markets. Similarly, the bank has found more opportunities to invest in the circular economy through funds that look at sustainability broadly, Matthews says. For instance, the bank has invested with a private venture firm focused on sustainability and climate solutions that has invested in a company working to create cold-pack packaging with less Styrofoam.

“Where [the circular economy] becomes more widely adopted and seen is in being favoured in broader sustainability portfolios,” Matthews says, adding that ESG managers doing fundamental research today will find themselves looking at some of the trends around circular, because “they are still underappreciated by the market.”

The stock market had a decent summer. Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall.

In the past couple of months, equity investors cheered soaring profits at big companies, shrugged off jitters in the bond market and nudged megacap tech shares back near records.

Now, as the post-Labor Day stretch begins, a number of new challenges lie ahead: ever-shifting odds of an interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve. Sky-high expectations after a stunning earnings season. The persistent threat of higher consumer prices as fighting in the Middle East drags on.

“You’re moving from this earnings-driven market to this macro-driven market with the Fed, inflation and interest rates in focus,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment adviser for Truist Advisory Services. “It tends to be a choppier period.”

Historically, every major U.S. stock index experiences its worst average return in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid an average 1.1% in the ninth month of the year, in data that dates back to the 19th century. The S&P 500 has seen the same average decline—and for every September dating back to 1928, the benchmark ends the month lower more than half of the time.

Analysts caution against reading too much into those seasonal patterns. But in recent weeks, new reasons for investor caution have emerged. One of the largest: the looming threat of an interest-rate increase from the Fed, which announces its next policy decision on Sept. 16.

Chairman Kevin Warsh’s decision to ditch forward guidance and take more of his cues from markets has muddied the waters for investors when it comes to monetary policy. That has left traders scouring Fed governor speeches and economic-data reports for clues on the central bank’s next move.

“There’s going to be a lot of eyes on those numbers,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

The past couple of weeks offered just one example of how frequently those expectations can change. After Warsh struck a hawkish tone during remarks on Aug. 28, the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next meeting jumped from 35% before the speech to 58%, according to CME FedWatch data.

On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made a case for leaving rates where they are. Interest-rate futures showed coin-flip odds between a hike and a hold. Then Friday’s robust jobs report amped up rate-hike bets once more, back to a roughly 60% chance of higher rates after the meeting.

“Rates have really been driving the car for equities the last few weeks,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.

That uncertainty comes as an unruly bond market could put pressure on stocks. Treasury yields have marched higher for much of the summer, driven by concerns about rising oil prices, growing U.S. budget deficits and a deluge of tech-company bonds now competing for investors’ cash. Last week, the rout went global, pushing yields to multiyear highs in Japan, Germany and the U.K.

Higher bond yields can drag on stock prices and lift borrowing costs for companies and consumers across the economy.

Rising prices remain the top concern for bond traders, and continued fighting between the U.S. and Iran has done little to ease those worries. The national average price of diesel climbed to a record of $5.850 on Friday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.712 a year ago.

Investors will get more insight on the path of prices this week, with the much-awaited consumer-price index report due Friday and a reading on producer prices Thursday.

With another blockbuster earnings season in the books, some analysts have also warned that any boost from the third-quarter reports due in the coming months could be minimal. Back-to-back quarters of standout profits have raised expectations and made it especially difficult to impress traders. Custom-chip company Broadcom, for example, said Wednesday that it more than tripled its earnings and nearly doubled its revenue. Shares slipped 2.7% the next session.

Many analysts note there are plenty of reasons not to panic. The economy is in impressive shape, thanks to a healthy labor market and the rippling effects of the artificial-intelligence investment boom. Profits are booming at America’s biggest companies. The Cboe Volatility Index has dropped to its lowest levels of 2026. Credit spreads are tight, a sign bond investors aren’t concerned about economic conditions that could hurt companies.

But the mood has shifted from the euphoria that felt tangible when the Nasdaq was notching back-to-back records early this summer. The question, Mayfield said, is whether the fundamentals that have bolstered the bull market so far can stretch the rally into 2027.

“There are more anxieties or uncertainties about the backdrop,” he said. “It does feel like a transitional moment.”

Future Returns: Investing In The Circular Economy

Investors are bracing for a bumpier fall stock market due to shifting odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and other macro challenges.