Gold Is Way Down. Here’s When To Worry.

Gold has fallen from its lofty August levels. The precious metal appears to be at a crossroads, but the price likely has to slide more from here in order for investors to get really spooked.

The price of gold ran up 37% between March 15, 2020—roughly when investors were most fearful about the economic damage from the Covid 19 pandemic—and August 2, 2020. That day, gold hit an all-time high of US$2,028, as seen by the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00). Even though stocks rose in that time span, demand for haven assets remained strong, as there weren’t many meaningful signs that the world would soon emerge from the pandemic.

Since hitting a record, the commodity has fallen 9% to date. “The long-term uptrend in gold is teetering on the edge,” wrote Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research in a note.

While gold has been in a concerning downtrend of late, gold-related stocks offer some optimism for the precious metal. Gold mining stocks are typically correlated with the actual commodity price. As an example, Goepfert highlights the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which has largely echoed gold’s moves over the past year. The ETF rose more than twofold between mid-March and early August, before falling 20% from the August level to date.

But now gold mining stocks suggest there could be brighter days ahead for the commodity. Roughly 20% of gold mining stocks have been trading above their 200-day moving averages on most days in the past two weeks, down from more than 85% of those stocks recently, Goepfert said. This cycle has occurred several times in the past few years and usually precedes gains for most gold stocks in the coming three-month period, Goepfert says.

Even if gold price trends cannot reverse themselves, it likely isn’t time to get too bearish yet. The key price level to watch for the contract for the actual metal is US$1780, according to Sevens Report Research. A dip below that would be a negative signal, representing a double-digit percentage drop from the current level. Gold dropped to around that level in late November, but quickly popped back.

Gold may be at a fork in the road, but investors might not want to unload their gold holdings just yet.

U.K.-listed Intermediate Capital Group plans to sell one of Singapore’s largest independent tertiary education institutions, which could be valued at as much as 700 million Singapore dollars, equivalent to US$526 million, people familiar with the situation said.

The alternative asset management company, which acquired PSB Academy in 2018, is working with corporate advisory firm Rippledot Capital Advisers to explore options, the people said.

ICG and Rippledot declined to comment.

The U.K.-based company, which has $107.0 billion in assets under management as of the end of 2024, acquired PSB Academy from Baring Private Equity Asia for an undisclosed price.

Set up in 1964, PSB Academy currently hosts over 20,000 students each year and offers certification, diploma and degree courses. It has operations across Asia, including Indonesia, China and Sri Lanka.

The Asian education sector has become increasingly attractive to private-equity firms and strategic investors due to rapid urbanization and a fast-growing middle class that can now afford higher education for their children.

In 2021, private-equity firm KKR invested in EQuest Education Group, Vietnam’s largest private education institution. A year before, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems paid S$730.0 million to buy Canadian International School in Singapore.