The U.S. should rethink its close ties with Hong Kong’s banking sector, leaders of an influential House committee say
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Leading China hawks in the U.S. House of Representatives are calling for a rethink on whether Hong Kong should continue to enjoy the cozy banking relationship it has with the U.S., saying the city is becoming a hub for money-laundering and sanctions evasion.
Hong Kong has turned into a major centre for the export of controlled Western technology to Russia; the creation of front companies to buy Iranian oil; the managing of “ghost ships” that serve North Korea, as well as other violations of U.S. trade controls, the bipartisan leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen .
The letter was signed by Rep. John Moolenaar , a Michigan Republican who chairs the committee, and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi , an Illinois Democrat who is the committee’s ranking member. The Wall Street Journal reviewed a draft of the letter, which was publicly released Monday.
“Hong Kong has shifted from a trusted global financial centre to a critical player in the deepening authoritarian axis of the People’s Republic of China, Iran, Russia and North Korea,” the lawmakers said. “We must now question whether longstanding U.S. policy towards Hong Kong, particularly towards its financial and banking sector, is appropriate.”
The lawmakers cited research, for example, that shows that nearly 40% of goods shipped from Hong Kong to Russia in 2023 were high-priority items such as semiconductors that Russia could use to prosecute its war in Ukraine.
Both lawmakers have worked extensively in the past with President-elect Donald Trump ’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, on China-related issues, including efforts to force TikTok’s Chinese owners to sell the app.
The allegation that Hong Kong is a money-laundering hub is unfounded, a spokesman for the Hong Kong government said. The spokesman added that Hong Kong has a vigorous enforcement system to prevent the illegal diversion of strategic commodities. A representative for Yellen didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The two lawmakers, whose committee focuses on competition with China and frequently makes bipartisan calls for a tougher approach to the country, asked Treasury for information on how it intends to combat money-laundering and sanctions evasion that use Hong Kong’s financial system.
Hong Kong, which has a special status within China, has seen its role as a global financial hub increasingly come into question as Beijing has muscled the city closer into its orbit, driving an exodus of expatriates. U.S. officials in particular have condemned Hong Kong authorities’ crackdown on dissidents under a tough national security law, though many Western banks have continued to do some business there.
Last week, a court in Hong Kong sentenced dozens of pro-democracy advocates for what Communist Party leadership viewed as subversion under that law. The Biden administration has called for their immediate and unconditional release. The government of the Hong Kong special administrative region said attacks on the “fair and open” sentencing are smears.
The same day, a Hong Kong government-sponsored financial summit played host to a number of global financial leaders, including Goldman Sachs Chairman David Solomon , Citi Chief Executive Jane Fraser and State Street CEO Ronald O’Hanley , according to a program of the event. Leaders from HSBC , BNP Paribas and other institutions also attended.
Banking leaders didn’t publicly discuss the court proceedings on the summit’s panels. A spokesman for State Street confirmed O’Hanley’s attendance. A spokeswoman for Citi declined to comment. Representatives for the other banks didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Earlier this month, Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi called on the Biden administration to sanction Hong Kong police, judges and prosecutors for their role in the arbitrary detentions of human-rights activists.
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
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Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
