Posted on

Property Of The Week: 51 Allen Street, Hamilton, QLD 4007

This generously sized, beautifully renovated Queenslander is a study in relaxed, modern charm.

Spread over two levels, the 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 2-car parking home is situated on a generous 607sqm plot only 5km from Brisbane CBD with a northerly aspect nearby the Brisbane River.

Despite the renovation, the home has kept plenty of its original character making good use of its high ceiling, vertical joinery, original pine flooring, plantation shutters and ceiling fans.

While a Queenslander at heart, the home has been reimagined for modern family living and renovated to include a contemporary kitchen, fitted with stone benchtops, Smeg appliances and a Liebherr integrated refrigerator.

The kitchen flows towards the living and dining which is connected to the covered entertainment deck offering inner-city Brisbane living at its best.

Further, the home sees oversized bedrooms, including a master complete with walk-in robe, while elsewhere designer bathrooms are complete with stone bench finishes.

On the lower level is two utility rooms alongside a multi-purpose area, currently used as a family room that flows out to the covered entertainment area and low maintenance, expansive backyard.

A short stroll to Race Course Rd precinct, Brisbane airport, public transport and more, it’s a rare opportunity to experience inner-city living through a classic lens.

The listing is with Richardson & Wrench’s Kim Olsen (+61 413 539 865). POA. Clayfield.randw.com.au

 

Posted on

Chinese Investors Poised For Return

The second half of 2021 will see Chinese investors re-enter the Australian real estate market according to Asian proptech company Juwai IQI. 

The property platform’s Asian Investment in Australia Q1 report indicated Australian real estate attracts more than six times the Chinese GDP-adjusted investment when compared to the United States.

Chinese investment enquiries into Australian real estate fell nearly 20% last year, due to the pandemic. However, Juwai is forecasting that number will turnaround in the second half of 2021.

“Chinese real estate enquiry levels in Australia should begin to recover in 2021 as the pandemic recedes and Asian economic wealth-creation machines continue to bounce back from their early 2020 doldrums,” a Juwai spokesman said.

Further, the Juwai spokesman said post-pandemic Australia would continue to appeal to Chinese migrants, second-home buyers, tourists and students with foreign buying made by permanent residents to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

Posted on

APRA Says House Prices Not Its Job

APRA

The Australian Prudential Regulatory Association (APRA) has told the government its responsibility is financial stability and lending practices, not house prices which are on an unprecedented rise across our nation’s capitals.

The soaring housing prices, which has seen an increase in 2.1% growth in February alone, the fastest pace in almost 17 years, has seen calls for regulators to cool the market.

“It’s not our job to solve house prices and it’s not our job to solve house pricing affordability. The extent to which there is dynamic emerging of increased risk-taking by the community … at this stage it’s not evident,” APRA chairman Wayne Byres told a federal parliamentary committee on Monday.

When questioned at the live-streamed House Standing Committee on Economics hearing, whether the regulator was concerned about young people and first home buyers being priced out of the market Mr Byres reminded the government that the regulator’s focus was on lending practices and not housing.

“I think the bank has been very clear, and we have been very clear, in saying our job is not to set or seek to target house prices,” Mr Byres said.

Mr Byres acknowledged credit restrictions could have a knock-on effect on housing prices, however, reiterated APRA’s position.

“The last statement from the Council of Financial Regulators said quite clearly we are watching for a deterioration in lending standards and that’s not evident at this point,” Mr Byres said. “That is not to say it won’t emerge, but it’s not obvious at this point. We are watching with our fellow regulators.”

Posted on

China Starts Raising Prices for the World

Chinese Manufacture

HONG KONG – Rising raw-materials costs and unrelenting supply-chain constraints are prompting many Chinese exporters to increase prices for the goods they sell abroad, raising fears it may add to global inflationary pressures.

The fears have deepened in recent days, after a grounded container ship blocked the Suez Canal, further straining global supply lines stretched by the coronavirus pandemic and stronger-than-expected demand for computer chips and other goods.

Rene de Jong, director of Resysta AV, an outdoor furniture manufacturer based in the southern Chinese city of Foshan, said he plans to raise prices by around 7% on new orders this summer.

That’s largely because prices of chemicals and metals that are used to produce cushions, foams and frames in the company’s factories in China and Indonesia have climbed rapidly in recent months. Shipping freight rates have also climbed roughly 90% since last June, though they are often paid by clients.

“In my nearly 25 years in China, I’ve never seen anything like this. I’ve never seen shipping costs like this before while steel and aluminium prices shot through the roof,” he said, adding that the company’s profit margins are under pressure.

Other Chinese exporters raising prices include apparel businesses and a toy wholesaler who told The Wall Street Journal his company has raised prices for new orders across the board by 10% to 15% since the beginning of March.

Price increases from Chinese factories alone aren’t necessarily enough to push inflation higher in the U.S. and elsewhere. Much of the sting could be absorbed if Western retailers choose to eat the cost increases themselves without passing them on to consumers, though doing so would squeeze retailers’ profit margins.

Also, official inflation calculations in the U.S. encompass far more than just the consumer goods people buy from abroad. Before the pandemic, more than 60% of consumer spending in the U.S. was on services like dining out or travelling, rather than on consumer goods.

Still, price increases by Chinese factories add yet another source of upward pressure on global prices at a time when the cost of everything from lumber to steel and cotton is higher. Some economists and investors worry that the trillions of dollars of stimulus unleashed worldwide will ultimately lead to more inflation than policy makers anticipate, especially if recent bottlenecks in global supply chains persist, though there are fierce debates over how bad the problem could become.

“There’s definitely a risk [that inflation will increase]. It’s not just the position of exporters. It’s everything, from the bottlenecks caused in global shipping to the idea that the stimulus might unleash more demand than supply can keep up with,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Even so, “it’s somewhat premature to assume that we are going to see runaway inflation at this point.”

What’s clear is that Chinese manufacturers making products for the rest of the world are finding it increasingly hard to hold the line on costs, especially after the pandemic and lockdowns hurt their profits last year. In the past, Chinese factories with cheap labour were often a force for keeping global prices for everything from jeans to sofas lower, but that’s becoming less true as the factories’ own costs climb.

Shipping rates, which soared in recent months amid port bottlenecks and container shortages, are part of the problem. In some cases, clients ask Chinese suppliers to share the burden. In other cases, Chinese factories themselves are having to pay more to ship in imported raw materials, like lumber.

Meanwhile, prices for many commodities have stayed high or kept climbing, and some businesses are choosing to pass those costs on to customers.

Prices for imports from China to the U.S. rose 1.2% over the past year, the fastest increase since 2012, with most of the increase coming in the three months ending in February, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

One positive for American consumers is that the U.S. dollar has remained stronger than many economists expected, which gives its shoppers more buying power when paying for imported goods. Many families accumulated savings during the pandemic, making it easier for them to pay a little more.

Prices are moving higher “primarily on stronger demand,” said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley. “Manufacturers will find ways to pass on costs in this circumstance. This will not derail the global recovery.”

Some Chinese manufacturers, meanwhile, have said they have been reluctant to increase prices for fear of losing market share, and expect raw materials costs to cool off.

However, there is little sign at the moment that the forces pushing costs higher in China will ease soon.

Ni Fang, manager of Ji’an Huaerxin Shoes Co., a producer of work boots in Jiangxi province that mostly sells to Europe and Southeast Asia, said that after China’s Lunar New Year in February, the company started receiving notices from suppliers of price increases ranging from 10% to 30% for raw materials used in boots and their packaging, including polyurethane, steel and paper.

The factory responded in late February by raising most product prices by around 5%.

“This round of spike in raw materials costs pushed us close to the point where we couldn’t bear it anymore,” said Ms. Ni, adding that the factory still absorbs parts of the cost increase for fear of turning away too many clients.

Other factors may be contributing to higher costs in China. Authorities are trying to limit fossil-fuel consumption to help China achieve its goal of reducing carbon emissions, which may be making it harder for steel and other sectors to increase production. Chinese officials in January reiterated their goal of ensuring that crude steel output will decline year-over-year in 2021, even as steel demand is projected to increase this year as the economy recovers.

Factory owners and economists say they also suspect some buyers are hoarding commodities, adding price pressure.

Chen Yang, a trader at a state-owned textile company in Jiangsu province, said some upstream suppliers began hoarding cotton before the Lunar New Year, telling him they expected the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus bill from the U.S. would buoy commodities prices across the board. Cotton prices jumped to around $2,600 a ton in early March, compared with around $1,990 a ton in mid-February, according to Mr Chen.

As a result, his company had to increase product prices accordingly, since raw materials account for about 70% to 80% of total costs.

“I got calls from clients almost every day asking about the prices, but very few actually placed orders,” he said. “They all want to wait for the prices to cool off. But they’ll have to order sooner or later.”

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: March 29, 2021

Posted on

The Wildest Requests Pro Landscapers Have Fielded

Some of us might debate placing any sort of decoration in our yard. Will our neighbours find even a discreet tin deer statue pretentious? Other homeowners, however, freely pursue extravagant landscape ambitions limited only by their imaginations. Santa Barbara designer Margie Grace recalled designing and installing over 10 types of gardens on a three-acre site in five months. “A couple of months later they called,” she said, noting that she and the clients are still friends. “They wanted to put in a model (ride-on) train that ran ‘round the whole thing—and the adventure continued.” Here, a collection of the most fantastical outdoor-design directives professionals have ever confronted.

“A young family in Texas requested a moat and drawbridge around their country estate. It sounded like a lot of fun, but unfortunately logistically we just couldn’t make it work [within their time frame].” —Michelle Nussbaumer, interior designer, Dallas

“For a wraparound terrace on Fifth Avenue, a well-known fashion designer requested a trampoline for her boyfriend, who insisted it was safe, with no netting or railings on the edge. It was 16 stories up. The boyfriend never had an accident, but he wore out his welcome. We removed the trampoline and added planters with peach and apple trees.” —Janice Parker, landscape architect, New York

“Our client requested that we accommodate his refurbished World War II Sherman tank that was to be stored in a show garage neatly tucked into the hillside of their 62-acre site. The request was revoked when it was determined that their Belgian-block driveway would be destroyed and have to be repaved every time they took the tank out for a spin.” —Margie Lavender, architect, Ike Kligerman Barkley, N.Y.

‘We had to create some really intense engineering to stabilise the home while protecting the trees,’ said Miami architect Chad Oppenheim of ancient pines that geologists wanted to remove but the client loved.

Chad Oppenheim

“We were asked to create a miniature golf course and ice skating rink for a Connecticut client. During the warmer months, the kidney-shaped course featured buildings and monuments—the Eiffel Tower, the Statue of Liberty—to serve as golf holes, and in the cooler months [it was cleared and] chilled to be a skating rink.” —Chris Pollack, builder/developer, Greenwich, Conn.

“[A client] told me she had begun taking trapeze lessons and would like to install a trapeze above her pool inside a garden pavilion…She thought it would provide a unique way to exercise. A local stage-rigging company helped us attach a trapeze to the ceiling beams and equip it with a motorised lift. When finished, she would just drop into the swimming pool.”—Mark Lavender, interior designer, Chicago

“We designed an elaborate terrace with wall panels of rusted steel, a water feature, outdoor kitchen—you name it. The biggest challenge? Meticulously detailing and designing comfortable areas for the dog to go to the bathroom.” —Brianne Bishop, interior designer, Chicago

With help from Hess Landscape Architects and MAMO Architects—and carefully conceived hydraulics—Philadelphia interior designer Marguerite Rodgers satisfied an Avalon, N.J., homeowner’s desire for a backyard pool that could be covered with a sturdy surface on which to entertain.

Halkin | Mason Photography

“It was an exhaustive wish list—a white garden (“like the one at Sissinghurst Castle,” the client said), a theatre garden (“like Lotusland”), a parterre garden (“like Versailles”), a Zen garden, children’s garden, vineyard, herb garden, veggie garden, outdoor chess… And could we complete it in five months and have it look fully grown? Endless midnight design sessions and five months later, the gardens were complete.” —Margie Grace, landscape designer, Santa Barbara, Calif.

“A young family was looking for ways to incorporate a pool in their backyard, ideally without losing square footage for their children to play and space for them to entertain. They asked if there was technology like a hydraulic retractable floor that would cover the pool. With the right team, their goal was achieved, the first such pool in northeast America.”—Marguerite Rodgers, interior designer, Philadelphia

“A movie director’s property for his new Los Angeles home featured incredible, ancient pine trees, and his directive to us was ‘Do whatever it takes to preserve these trees.’ Problem was, the geologists wanted them removed to stabilise the cliff-side property. We had to create some really intense engineering, like tremendous caissons, to stabilise the home while protecting the trees. In the end, the window in one of the rooms basically frames these beautiful, old sacred trees.” —Chad Oppenheim, architect, Miami

Posted on

House Prices Are Inflating Around The World

As the U.S. housing market booms, a parallel rise in residential real-estate prices across the world from Amsterdam to Auckland is raising fears of possible bubbles and prompting some governments to intervene to prevent their markets from overheating.

Policy makers were already worried about high property prices in parts of Europe, Asia and Canada before the pandemic, especially as years of low-interest rates kept demand strong.

But now the trillions of dollars of stimulus deployed worldwide to fight the effects of Covid-19, along with changes in buying patterns as more people work from home, are turbocharging markets further.

That is putting policy makers in a bind. Many want to keep interest rates low to sustain the post-pandemic recovery, but they worry about people taking on too much debt to buy houses whose prices could stagnate or fall later. Other tools they have to cool demand, like tighter mortgage restrictions, aren’t always working, or are being postponed as authorities try to ensure broader economic growth stays on track.

The Danish central bank recently warned that cheap financing and savings that expanded during the pandemic could lead to people taking on more debt to purchase houses and property prices spiralling upward.

“It is clear that rising [house] prices of between 5% and 10% annually, depending on the market we are talking about, are not sustainable in the long run,” said Karsten Biltoft, assistant governor at the central bank.

In China, regulators have tried tamping down property markets to cool what one senior banking official referred to as a “bubble,” to little avail. Property prices are up 16% over the past year in the city of Shenzhen, for example. In New Zealand, authorities recently tightened mortgage lending standards, with median home prices climbing 23% in February from a year earlier to a record.

In Sydney, where property prices also recently hit records, new mortgage demand is so high that some banks are struggling to keep up, said Christian Stevens, senior credit adviser at mortgage brokerage Shore Financial. Turnaround times for processing mortgage applications have increased from a few days to more than a month in some cases.

“It’s crazy,” he said. “We’ve never been this busy or seen this much inquiry. And it doesn’t look like it’s slowing down anytime soon.”

In the 37 wealthy countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, home prices hit a record in the third quarter of 2020, according to OECD data. Prices rose almost 5% on the year, the fastest in nearly 20 years.

The U.S. has also seen strong house price appreciation, though economists generally aren’t too worried. Compared with previous periods of housing-market exuberance, buyers have higher credit ratings and are putting down more cash upfront on purchases.

Economists see similar silver linings elsewhere, making a replay of the global 2008 housing crash, which sent the world into recession, unlikely. Hot markets could cool naturally without wider damage as interest rates rise and pent-up demand is met. As in the U.S., much of the buying globally is being driven by real demand rather than speculation, with families looking to upgrade to larger properties in suburban areas as they work more from home.

“There’s been this almost global reset as people have taken a step back during lockdown periods and reassessed their lifestyle,” said Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank.

Strong home-price appreciation also makes homeowners feel wealthier and encourages more spending and construction, as developers build more supply.

However, with equities prices also at or near record highs, some officials are worried that vast amounts of stimulus are pushing asset prices to unsustainable levels in some global cities, which could lead to local market corrections.

The Dutch central bank told The Wall Street Journal that one concern is that sharp property price increases could be forcing households to take on excessive risk to finance home purchases. Prices in the Netherlands, where there is also a housing supply crunch, rose 7.8% last year, after a 6.9% rise in 2019, according to analysts at ING Groep.

Canada’s central bank governor, Tiff Macklem, said in February there were early signs of “excess exuberance” in the Canadian housing market, with prices up 17% on an adjusted basis over a one-year period, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Mr. Macklem said officials would be monitoring the situation closely, but dismissed taking measures to rein in sales, saying the economy needed all the support it could get.

Governments say they are also worried about pricing more families out of the market, which could exacerbate economic imbalances that have worsened during the pandemic and potentially drive younger people to put off having children.

In Seoul, where house prices at one point last year were up nearly 15% on an annualized basis, some couples are postponing registering marriages in the hope of making it easier to buy homes. Income thresholds for low-interest mortgages in South Korea are more generous for individuals than couples.

In New Zealand, Sam Hindle, 29, says he and his wife bid on six houses and were rejected for all of them because of competition from other buyers, and eventually agreed to buy a house off-market from a friend.

“It’s just been a nightmare,” said Mr. Hindle, who works in a bank call centre and lives about a four-hour drive from Auckland.

Government officials recently told New Zealand’s central bank that it must consider the impact its policy decisions have on housing, though doing so could complicate rate-setting. The central bank also restricted the volume of high-risk mortgages banks can offer.

Last year, China put new limits on developer financing in the hope of cooling housing prices, but the market has remained frothy. In early March, the chairman of China’s main banking regulator said he was worried about a possible correction in home prices, which could threaten banks’ stability.

Europe’s housing prices have kept climbing despite a much bleaker economic outlook than in the U.S. or China. In part that is because governments have kept supporting families with salary subsidies and moratoriums on loan repayments. It is also because interest rates remain extraordinarily low, with mortgage rates averaging 1.35% across the eurozone.

In Denmark, mortgage holders have been able to borrow money at negative interest, meaning borrowers only pay the bank an administration fee. Negative interest in their favor either gets discounted from the fee or deducted from their mortgage principal.

Michael Stausholm, a Copenhagen real-estate agent, said he has sold 45 homes in less than three months this year, putting him on track to beat last year’s record of 161 sales, despite Covid-19 restrictions.

“A lot of people want to put their money in brick,” Mr. Stausholm said.

Pre-pandemic, the Dutch central bank ruled that banks would need to hold more capital to cover potential losses in mortgage-loan portfolios, but implementation was postponed because of Covid-19. The central bank has also called for the government to gradually phase out tax incentives for homeowners, including mortgage-interest deductions.

Mick ten Bosch, a real-estate agency owner in Amsterdam, said he had 450 people trying to view one house last year, compared with an average of 20 pre-pandemic. This year is even busier, with houses selling for 15% to 20% above asking price, he added.

Teun Kraaij, a 34-year-old entrepreneur, bought a house in an area by the beach near Amsterdam with more space for his two children. While he had enough money to pay the full purchase price outright, his banker advised him to take a mortgage with a 1.2% interest rate.

“It’s so cheap to borrow money nowadays, it doesn’t make sense not to do it,” Mr. Kraaij said.

 

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: March 28, 2021.

Posted on

Can Artificial Intelligence Replace Human Therapists?

Could artificial intelligence reduce the need for human therapists?

Websites, smartphone apps and social-media sites are dispensing mental-health advice, often using artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, clinicians and researchers are looking to AI to help define mental illness more objectively, identify high-risk people and ensure quality of care.

Some experts believe AI can make treatment more accessible and affordable. There has long been a severe shortage of mental-health professionals, and since the Covid pandemic, the need for support is greater than ever. For instance, users can have conversations with AI-powered chatbots, allowing then to get help anytime, anywhere, often for less money than traditional therapy.

The algorithms underpinning these endeavours learn by combing through large amounts of data generated from social-media posts, smartphone data, electronic health records, therapy-session transcripts, brain scans and other sources to identify patterns that are difficult for humans to discern.

Despite the promise, there are some big concerns. The efficacy of some products is questionable, a problem only made worse by the fact that private companies don’t always share information about how their AI works. Problems about accuracy raise concerns about amplifying bad advice to people who may be vulnerable or incapable of critical thinking, as well as fears of perpetuating racial or cultural biases. Concerns also persist about private information being shared in unexpected ways or with unintended parties.

The Wall Street Journal hosted a conversation via email and Google Doc about these issues with John Torous, director of the digital-psychiatry division at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School; Adam Miner, an instructor at the Stanford School of Medicine; and Zac Imel, professor and director of clinical training at the University of Utah and co-founder of LYSSN.io, a company using AI to evaluate psychotherapy. Here’s an edited transcript of the discussion.

Leaps forward

WSJ: What is the most exciting way AI and machine learning are being used to diagnose mental disorders and improve treatments?

DR. MINER: AI can speed up access to appropriate services, like crisis response. The current Covid pandemic is a strong example where we see both the potential for AI to help facilitate access and triage, while also bringing up privacy and misinformation risks. This challenge—deciding which interventions and information to champion—is an issue in both pandemics and in mental health care, where we have many different treatments for many different problems.

DR. IMEL: In the near term, I am most excited about using AI to augment or guide therapists, such as giving feedback after the session or even providing tools to support self-reflection. Passive phone-sensing apps [that run in the background on users’ phones and attempt to monitor users’ moods] could be exciting if they predict later changes in depression and suggest interventions to do something early. Also, research on remote sensing in addiction, using tools to detect when a person might be at risk of relapse and suggesting an intervention or coping skills, is exciting.

DR. TOROUS: On a research front, AI can help us unlock some of the complexities of the brain and work toward understanding these illnesses better, which can help us offer new, effective treatment. We can generate a vast amount of data about the brain from genetics, neuroimaging, cognitive assessments and now even smartphone signals. We can utilize AI to find patterns that may help us unlock why people develop mental illness, who responds best to certain treatments and who may need help immediately. Using new data combined with AI will likely help us unlock the potential of creating new personalized and even preventive treatments.

WSJ: Do you think automated programs that use AI-driven chatbots are an alternative to therapy?

DR. TOROUS: In a recent paper I co-authored, we looked at the more recent chatbot literature to see what the evidence says about what they really do. Overall, it was clear that while the idea is exciting, we are not yet seeing evidence matching marketing claims. Many of the studies have problems. They are small. They are difficult to generalize to patients with mental illness. They look at feasibility outcomes instead of clinical-improvement endpoints. And many studies do not feature a control group to compare results.

DR. MINER: I don’t think it is an “us vs. them, human vs. AI” situation with chatbots. The important backdrop is that we, as a community, understand we have real access issues and some people might not be ready or able to get help from a human. If chatbots prove safe and effective, we could see a world where patients access treatment and decide if and when they want another person involved. Clinicians would be able to spend time where they are most useful and wanted.

WSJ: Are there cases where AI is more accurate or better than human psychologists, therapists or psychiatrists?

DR. IMEL: Right now, it’s pretty hard to imagine replacing human therapists. Conversational AI is not good at things we take for granted in human conversation, like remembering what was said 10 minutes ago or last week and responding appropriately.

DR. MINER: This is certainly where there is both excitement and frustration. I can’t remember what I had for lunch three days ago, and an AI system can recall all of Wikipedia in seconds. For raw processing power and memory, it isn’t even a contest between humans and AI systems. However, Dr. Imel’s point is crucial around conversations: Things humans do without effort in conversation are currently beyond the most powerful AI system.

An AI system that is always available and can hold thousands of simple conversations at the same time may create better access, but the quality of the conversations may suffer. This is why companies and researchers are looking at AI-human collaboration as a reasonable next step.

DR. IMEL: For example, studies show AI can help “rewrite” text statements to be more empathic. AI isn’t writing the statement, but trained to help a potential listener possibly tweak it.

WSJ: As the technology improves, do you see chatbots or smartphone apps siphoning off any patients who might otherwise seek help from therapists?

DR. TOROUS: As more people use apps as an introduction to care, it will likely increase awareness and interest of mental health and the demand for in-person care. I have not met a single therapist or psychiatrist who is worried about losing business to apps; rather, app companies are trying to hire more therapists and psychiatrists to meet the rising need for clinicians supporting apps.

DR. IMEL: Mental-health treatment has a lot in common with teaching. Yes, there are things technology can do in order to standardise skill building and increase access, but as parents have learned in the last year, there is no replacing what a teacher does. Humans are imperfect, we get tired and are inconsistent, but we are pretty good at connecting with other humans. The future of technology in mental health is not about replacing humans, it’s about supporting them.

WSJ: What about schools or companies using apps in situations when they might otherwise hire human therapists?

DR. MINER: One challenge we are facing is that the deployment of apps in schools and at work often lacks the rigorous evaluation we expect in other types of medical interventions. Because apps can be developed and deployed so quickly, and their content can change rapidly, prior approaches to quality assessment, such as multiyear randomized trials, are not feasible if we are to keep up with the volume and speed of app development.

Judgment calls

WSJ: Can AI be used for diagnoses and interventions?

DR. IMEL: I might be a bit of a downer here—building AI to replace current diagnostic practices in mental health is challenging. Determining if someone meets criteria for major depression right now is nothing like finding a tumour in a CT scan—something that is expensive, labour-intensive and prone to errors of attention, and where AI is already proving helpful. Depression is measured very well with a nine-question survey.

DR. MINER: I agree that diagnosis and treatment are so nuanced that AI has a long way to go before taking over those tasks from a human.

Through sensors, AI can measure symptoms, like sleep disturbances, pressured speech or other changes in behaviour. However, it is unclear if these measurements fully capture the nuance, judgment and context of human decision making. An AI system may capture a person’s voice and movement, which is likely related to a diagnosis like major depressive disorder. But without more context and judgment, crucial information can be left out. This is especially important when there are cultural differences that could account for diagnosis-relevant behaviour.

Ensuring new technologies are designed with awareness of cultural differences in normative language or behaviour is crucial to engender trust in groups who have been marginalised based on race, age, or other identities.

WSJ: Is privacy also a concern?

DR. MINER: We’ve developed laws over the years to protect mental-health conversations between humans. As apps or other services start asking to be a part of these conversations, users should be able to expect transparency about how their personal experiences will be used and shared.

DR. TOROUS: In prior research, our team identified smartphone apps [used for depression and smoking cessation that] shared data with commercial entities. This is a red flag that the industry needs to pause and change course. Without trust, it is not possible to offer effective mental health care.

DR. MINER: We undervalue and poorly design for trust in AI for healthcare, especially mental health. Medicine has designed processes and policies to engender trust, and AI systems are likely following different rules. The first step is to clarify what is important to patients and clinicians in terms of how information is captured and shared for sensitive disclosures.

 

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: March 27, 2021.

Posted on

Super Saturday Brings Record Breaking Results

Despite a flood of pre-Easter listings, metro clearance rates continued to sit at incredibly strong levels.

The so-called March 27 ‘super Saturday’ saw all capitals report clearance rates above 80%. Further, each capital recorded more listings than last year’s equivalent weekend, with the exception of Brisbane.

The Sydney housing market continues to soar to unprecedented heights recording a clearance of 90.4%, the city’s fourth result over 90% in the last 5 weekends.

A total of 1227 auctions were listed for Saturday, well above the previous weekend’s 856 and the Covid-impacted 1058 recorded over the same weekend last year.

Sydney’s median price for houses sold at auction on the weekend was $1,573,000, 2.3% lower than the previous weekend’s $1,610,000.

Melbourne, meanwhile, hosted 1593 home auctions on Saturday, up on the previous weekend’s 1117 and higher than the 1400 on the same weekend last year.

Despite the record number of offerings, the Victorian capital recorded its highest clearance rate since January 30 at 83.7%.

Melbourne recorded a median price of $1,015,000 for houses sold, 3.6% higher than the previous weekend’s $980.000.

Melbourne recorded a median price of $1,015,000 houses sold at auction on the weekend which was 3.6% higher than the previous weekend’s $980.000.

While ascendent year-on-year, such figures must be framed by the fact the equivalent 2020 weekend saw Sydney and Melbourne locked down due to COVID.

Brisbane, as mentioned, saw 114 homes listed for auction this past weekend, down on last year’s 131, however recorded a clearance rate of 82.3%.

Posted on

Top 10 Regional Growth Areas For 2021

Eight of Australia’s top 10 regional growth areas will see the value of development exceed the billion-dollar mark this year as buyers look beyond Australia’s capital cities.

The PRD Stand Out regions report ranked locations around Australia according to the median price affordability alongside indicators for property investment, local employment growth and sustainable economic futures.

Coastal locations of The Whistdundays (QLD), Port Stephens (VIC) and Greater Bendigo (VIC) fared best in the report as places for residential development, with a rental vacancy of 0.4-1.5 per cent at the end of 2020 compared to 1.8-4.7 per cent in city areas according to the report.

Other top performing regions included Mackay (QLD), Toowoomba (QLD), Greater Hume Region (NSW), Federation (NSW), Greater Geelong (VIC), Warrnambool (VIC) and Circular Head (TAS). 

While residential potential in these regions is strong, commercial infrastructure and industrial projects make up a large portion of development set to start in 2021 including solar farms, new commercial hubs and transport links.

“Regional areas have become the most attractive option throughout 2020, with evidence of buyers capitalising on lower median property prices,” the PRD Stand Out Regions report said.

Posted on

With Negative Rates, Homeowners In Europe Are Paid To Borrow

ISBON—Paula Cristina Santos has a dream mortgage: The bank pays her.

Her interest rate fluctuates, but right now it is around minus 0.25%. So every month, Ms. Santos’s lender, Banco BPI SA, deposits in her account interest on the 320,000-euro mortgage, equivalent to roughly $380,000, she took out in 2008. In March, she received around $45. She is still paying principal on the loan.

Ms. Santos’s upside-down relationship with her lender started years ago when the European Central Bank cut interest rates to below zero to reignite the continent’s frail economy in the midst of a sovereign-debt crisis. The negative rates helped everyone get cheap financing, from governments to small companies. It gave an incentive to households to borrow and spend. And it broke the basic rule of credit, allowing banks to owe money to borrowers.

Ms. Santos’s case was supposed to be rare and mostly over by now. After the ECB cut interest rates to below zero in 2014, economies in the eurozone improved and expectations were that rates would rise in a few years. But the coronavirus pandemic changed all that.

As economic pain in Europe drags on, the negative rates remain—and they are getting lower. As a result, more borrowers in Portugal as well as in Denmark, where interest rates turned negative in 2012, are finding themselves in the unusual position of receiving interest on their loans.

“When I took the mortgage, I never imagined this scenario, and neither did the bank,” said Ms. Santos, a 44-year-old business consultant.

Deco, a Lisbon-based consumer-rights group that in 2019 estimated that rates had turned negative on more than 30,000 mortgage contracts in Portugal, said the figure has likely more than doubled since then.

Many European borrowers have variable-rate mortgages tied to interest-rate benchmarks. Like most in Portugal, Ms. Santos’s is tied to Euribor, which is based on how much it costs European banks to borrow from each other. She pays a fixed 0.29% on top of the three-month Euribor rate. When she took out the mortgage in 2008, three-month Euribor was close to 5%. It has been falling in recent months and is now near a record low, at minus 0.54%.

Portugal’s state-owned Caixa Geral de Depósitos SA said about 12% of its mortgage contracts currently carry negative rates. The number of such contracts rose by 50% last year, according to a person familiar with the situation. Ms. Santos’s bank, BPI, said it has so far paid €1 million in interest on mortgage contracts to an undisclosed number of customers.

Spain, where most mortgages are also linked to Euribor, faced a similar situation. But the country passed a law that prevents rates from going below zero. Portugal did the opposite, passing a bill in 2018 that requires banks to reflect negative rates.

“In the event that the decline in interest rates exceeds the mortgage spread, the client would not pay interest, but in no case [would the bank] pay in favour of the borrower,” said a spokesman for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, one of Spain’s largest lenders.

There are no official figures available on how many mortgages are currently carrying a zero interest rate in Spain. Banks have declined to disclose their numbers.

In Denmark, more borrowers have seen their rates turn negative, although in most cases they are still paying their banks because of an administration fee charge.

There, mortgages aren’t directly financed by the banks, which don’t set their terms. Instead, they serve as a type of intermediary, selling bonds to investors at a specific rate, lending the same amount to the borrower for the same rate.

Nykredit, Denmark’s biggest mortgage lender, said more than 50% of its loans with an interest period of up to 10 years have a negative interest rate before the fee. That proportion is rising because mortgages tend to have their rates adjusted every few years.

That is the case for Claus Johansen, 41, who works in Nykredit’s mortgage department. In 2016, he took on a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage for 1.2 million Danish kroner, equivalent to roughly $190,000, to buy a house north of Copenhagen. His interest repayments for the first five years were set at 0.06%. In January of this year, the rate was revised to minus 0.26%, which is subtracted from a 0.6% administration fee he has to pay the bank.

“It’s odd, but negative rates have been around for so many years, we just got used to it,” Mr. Johansen said.

A flip side to borrowers receiving interest from their lenders is that banks in Denmark and elsewhere have started charging customers for their deposits, saying they can no longer absorb the negative rates their central bank charges them. Mr. Johansen said he keeps his account balance under the threshold at which his bank would start charging him.

In Lisbon, Ms. Santos said that while it is great to receive interest from her bank, her situation overall isn’t better off because BPI has sharply cut the interest it offered on her business deposit account in recent years, to close to zero, from around 3%. Her plans to buy a new house are on hold because BPI is now charging a much higher spread on new mortgages, to avoid falling into the negative-rates trap again.

“We wanted to move out of the city centre, but it is hard to leave such a good mortgage deal behind,” Ms. Santos said.