People are using the beginning of fall as the best time to reset their goals and values, inspired by a social-media trend
3 min
October is traditionally the time to break out the cozy sweaters and consume as many pumpkin-spice drinks as possible. Instead, people are now using it to reset their goals.
Dubbed “October Theory,” these people are rethinking their approach to the last three months of the year. They’re using it as a time to set goals, pick up new habits and reflect—essentially taking on the role New Year’s plays.
October Theory is the latest “theory” social media has latched onto. Between the uneven job market, inflation, and the usual daily grind, people are looking for something they can control. Setting goals and improving their lives —whether it’s their health, finances or mindset—is something they are gravitating toward.
Sarah Stone, a 35-year-old Realtor in Kansas City, Mo., says October is a better time to reflect on the previous nine months and also home in on what she wants to achieve in the last few months of the year. This month, she’s decluttering her home and purging habits such as too much impulse shopping at TJ Maxx.
“It feels almost like the beginning of the year is in the wrong place on the calendar,” says Stone.
October can feel like an introspective time for people since the seasons are changing, a new academic school year has started and the current year is on its way out, says Laurie Kramer, a licensed clinical psychologist and a professor of applied psychology at Northeastern University. The Jewish new year—Rosh Hashana—also takes place in September or October, giving millions a time to reflect.
“This is a great time, 90 days from the new year, from the holidays, to reassess, see where you are with things,” Kramer says.
October Theory is catching on partly because it sets someone up for success by the time January rolls around, say fans of the trend. Instead of picking up a new habit in the dead of winter—at the same time everyone else is trying to make it to the gym, for instance—it has already been in place for three months.
Every new year, Allison Bucheleres, a 30-year-old lifestyle and fashion content creator in Miami, tries to set new goals. Often, she fails because she doesn’t have a routine in place to make it happen.
Most of her goals this month revolve around setting new daily routines, such as waking up at 7 a.m., journaling her thoughts and writing self-affirmations to reframe her thinking. Around the middle of the day, she’ll repeat her positive phrases—at times over 100 of them—and will sometimes write one on a sticky note to post on her bathroom mirror.
Bucheleres’s newest self-mantra: “I can control my work and my self belief, but not the timing.”
Simple behaviours that are easy to repeat could take as few as 30 times to become a habit. More complex ones, such as going to the gym, could take up to three months of daily practice, says Wendy Wood, professor emerita of psychology and business at the University of Southern California.
The best time to change behaviour is during a big life change, such as moving to a new house or starting a new job or relationship—regardless of whether it’s in January or October, she says.
“You have a sort of window of opportunity to make decisions about what you want to do without your old habits getting in the way,” Wood says.
Others view October as a last chance to fulfil the goals and aspirations they set months ago.
That includes Mateo Pérez, who is in the final stretch for his weightlifting and running regimen. The 19-year-old sophomore, who is majoring in creative advertising at the University of Miami, is also working on an application to transfer to New York University for the fall 2025 semester. Pérez wants to finish the application by the end of this semester in December.
“Right now, it’s like a reflection of this whole year and how can we make the most of the last three months,” Pérez says.
Psychologists say being introspective—at any time of the year—helps people develop habits and routines. It is often the key to following through on your goals.
Two Octobers ago, Kelly Sites, a 38-year-old customer-support manager and content creator, decided to stop living overseas. By February, she had moved to Kansas City, Mo.
This year, she’s trying to set up a daily meditation and breathing practice, and eat more whole foods. In a TikTok post on Oct. 2, Sites encouraged people to go to their photo albums and type in October to see how much their lives have changed in the 10th month of the year.
“It’s this idea of hibernation, seasons changing,” Sites says. “There’s always seeds of my life that were planted in October that changed the rest of the year.”
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
