The IMF doesn’t share U.S. view that China’s massive trade surpluses are hurting the world, and that tension is likely to grow
4 min
Eighty years ago world leaders meeting in Bretton Woods, N.H., created the International Monetary Fund to prevent the sorts of economic imbalances that had brought on the Great Depression.
Today, imbalances once again threaten global harmony. China’s massive trade surplus is fuelling a backlash. The U.S. attributes those surpluses to China holding down consumption while subsidising manufacturing and exports, inflicting collateral damage on its trading partners. And it would like the IMF to say so.
The IMF, though, has steered a more neutral path. It has prodded Beijing to change its economic model while playing down any harm from that model for the world.
Decades ago, U.S. leaders thought bringing China into the postwar economic institutions such as the IMF and World Trade Organization would make Beijing more market-oriented and the world more stable. They now think the opposite. China has doubled down on an authoritarian, state-driven economic model that many in the West see as incompatible with their own.
The IMF, the world’s most influential international economic institution, may find itself torn between irreconcilable visions of the global economy, especially if former President Donald Trump is re-elected next month.
Trump has prioritised reducing the trade deficit, especially with China, through tariffs, an approach the IMF has criticised. Many of his advisers are deeply suspicious of both Beijing and international institutions. Project 2025, an agenda for a second Trump term that includes many Trump advisers as authors, has suggested the U.S. should leave the IMF, though there is no sign Trump agrees.
The U.S. has been upset about the growth in China’s trade surplus since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, wiping out U.S. factory jobs in what became known as the China shock .
China’s surpluses have since shrunk as a share of its gross domestic product. But because China’s economy is now so large, that surplus has grown as share of world GDP, to 0.7%. Other countries are alarmed at a growing flood of cheap manufacturing imports, dubbed “China Shock 2.0 .”
Jake Sullivan , President Biden’s national security adviser, said at the Brookings Institution Wednesday that China “is producing far more than domestic demand, dumping excess onto global markets at artificially low prices, driving manufacturers around the world out of business, and creating a chokehold on supply chains.”
Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh told me at a panel organised by the Atlantic Council two weeks ago that China is “already 30% of global manufacturing. You can’t grow at a massive rate when you start from 30% of the world without displacing not just us, but lots of countries.”
Pointing out such tensions is part of the IMF’s job, Shambaugh said at the event. While the IMF has said China’s industrial policies may be hurting its trading partners, “I would like to see them pay more attention…to the aggregate external imbalance.”
The IMF’s architects believed a breakdown in economic cooperation contributed to the Depression. Countries such as the U.S. that ran large trade surpluses felt no pressure to help those with deficits, like Britain. Depressed countries sought to limit imports and boost exports by devaluing their currencies or imposing tariffs, in effect seeking to export their unemployment.
To end such “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies, British economist John Maynard Keynes proposed that trade be conducted through a global bank and currency that would prevent big deficits and surpluses. Instead, at Bretton Woods, delegates agreed to peg their currencies to the dollar with the IMF overseeing periodic revaluations.
By the 1970s, inflation and growing trade deficits caused fixed exchange rates to collapse. Cross-border capital flows soared, enabling poor countries to borrow from western banks and investors. When they defaulted, the IMF had a new mission: helping them restructure their debts, usually on the condition of strict budget austerity. IMF, a popular joke ran, stood for “It’s Mostly Fiscal.”
Even today, while the IMF does still monitor trade deficits and surpluses, it rarely attributes those to cross-border influences, focusing instead on fiscal and other domestic factors.
In a blog post last month, IMF staff investigated the U.S. deficit and Chinese surplus and found little connection.
The U.S. deficit reflected strong government and household spending, while China’s surplus resulted from slumping property markets and domestic confidence. They “are mostly homegrown,” they wrote. In an implicit rebuke to the U.S., they wrote, “Worries that China’s external surpluses result from industrial policies reflect an incomplete view.”
This benign view of Chinese surpluses has drawn criticism. Brad Setser , a former U.S. Treasury official now at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the IMF has relied on data that understates the surplus.
Setser also raps the IMF’s advice to Beijing to let interest rates and the exchange rate fall while tightening fiscal policy—that is, raising taxes or cutting spending. That, he said, will weaken imports, boost exports and thus widen the trade surplus.
“Their analysis is all about how bad the fiscal situation is, with no real analysis of the balance of payments position,” Setser said.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas , the IMF’s chief economist, disagreed. He noted the IMF has consistently urged China to boost household consumption such as by strengthening the social safety net and shifting more of the tax burden from the high-consuming poor to the high-saving rich. He also noted that the IMF has argued for fiscal stimulus now and consolidation later.
Does the IMF’s opinion make a difference? Most countries—the big ones especially—will never need to borrow from the IMF and can thus ignore its advice. The IMF has long urged the U.S. to rein in its budget deficit, noting this contributes to its trade deficit, and the U.S. has just as long ignored it.
And yet when the IMF speaks, it does so with an authority and credibility that no private analyst or individual country commands.
China’s approach to boosting exports is “killing jobs elsewhere, and that’s something the IMF should call out,” said Martin Mühleisen , a former senior IMF official now at The Atlantic Council. “China doesn’t want bad publicity from the IMF, in part because the criticism would resonate in many countries.”
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
