THE WORLD HAS 192 PEOPLE WORTH MORE THAN US$10 BILLION, WEALTH-X SAYS

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, the global billionaire population continued to expand in 2021 for the third year in a row.

There were 3,311 billionaires by the end of last year, up 3.3% from 2020’s 3,204. Their combined wealth surged 17.8% to a record US$11.8 trillion, according to a report released Wednesday by Wealth-X, a global wealth information and insight provider.

Out of the billionaire population, more than half were considered to be “lower end,” which includes those with a wealth between US$1 billion and US$2 billion. About 192 individuals, or 6% of the global billionaire population, each had a net worth in excess of US$10 billion. But this group’s combined wealth, at US$4.8 trillion, accounted for 41% of the total billionaires’ wealth and was just shy of the annual market value of the Japanese economy, the third largest in the world, according to the report.

Around 17% of the total billionaires’ wealth was held by 20 “super-billionaires,” or individuals with a net worth of more than US$50 billion. This exclusive list includes SpaceX’s Elon Musk with an estimated net worth of US$234.5 billion; LVMH’s Bernard Arnault, whose family has more than US$151 billion; and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, with a net worth of US$142.2 billion.

This trend—wealth increasingly concentrated in the top-tier even of the world’s richest class—has many contributing factors, including the rapid digitalization of the global economy, central bank stimuli, the rise of “big tech,” and real estate growth, according to the report.

“Since 2020, the disruptive impact of the pandemic on the global economy has reinforced many of these trends,” the report said.

Regionally, North America still dominated with 1,035 billionaires, exceeding the 1,000 threshold for the first time. That was a 5.6% increase from 2020.

Europe registered the strongest growth, with its billionaire population rising 6.8% year over year to 954. Asia, not including the Pacific, accounted for 899 billionaires, up 1.8% from a year ago.

At the country level, the U.S. topped the list with 975 billionaires and a combined billionaire wealth of US$4.45 trillion. China (excluding the Hong Kong Special Region) came second with 400 billionaires, down 2.4% from 2020.

Germany, India, and the U.K. completed the top five countries with the largest billionaire populations.

Of note was India, which, with 124 billionaires, jumped four places from a year ago and replaced Russia as the fourth-ranked billionaire country. Russia’s billionaire population shrank 10.8% in 2021 to 107 individuals, landing to the eighth place on the list, according to the report.

India’s billionaire wealth creation “is being supported by a combination of robust economic growth, structural reform, infrastructure development and political patronage,” the report said.

Other key findings in the report include:

New York was the top city for billionaires with 135, followed by Hong Kong (114) and San Francisco (85);
Kuwait City, the capital of Kuwait on the Persian Gulf, was the top-ranked city for billionaire density, with one billionaire for approximately every 33,000 residents; San Francisco and Hong Kong came second and third, respectively;
The banking and finance sector was the dominant primary industry, accounting for more than one-fifth of the global billionaire population. It was followed by industrial conglomerates, real estate, tech, and manufacturing;
The top philanthropic cause among the billionaire class was education, with 65.9% of billionaires giving to this cause. Other top causes included healthcare and medical research (42.7%); art and culture (41.2%); social services (38%); and environmental and animal protection (19.1%);
40% of billionaires were aged 70 and over; 11% were younger than 50, with a median age of 66; Tech billionaires had a median age of 55;
About 13% of billionaires were female.

Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.

When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.

The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.

But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.

Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.

After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.

“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”

The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.

Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.

In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.

Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.

“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”

Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.

“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.

The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.

In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.

Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.

THE WORLD HAS 192 PEOPLE WORTH MORE THAN US$10 BILLION, WEALTH-X SAYS

Around 17% of the total billionaires’ wealth was held by 20 “super-billionaires”.

Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.