Four family foundations will receive shares worth more than $1 billion
2 min
At age 94, Warren Buffett is reflecting on life, wealth and mortality.
The legendary investor’s company, Berkshire Hathaway , said Monday that Buffett will again give a portion of his Berkshire shares, in this case worth about $1.15 billion, to four family foundations. The donations leave him holding 206,363 Class A shares worth about $148 billion.
As he did last November, Buffett is converting 1,600 Class A shares into 2.4 million Class B shares, which hold less voting rights, before donating them to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, named for his late first wife, and to foundations led by his children.
The Thanksgiving-time donations supplement annual gifts to the four foundations, as well as to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that Buffett has made since 2006, when he unveiled plans to make major gifts throughout his lifetime.
In a message accompanying Monday’s news of the donations, Buffett discussed his plans for his three children, Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett , to distribute the Berkshire shares he owns at his death. Buffett told The Wall Street Journal in June that the Gates Foundation had no money coming after he dies.
The three Buffett children, now in their 60s and 70s, will need to decide unanimously what philanthropic purposes their father’s money serves. Buffett said in his new comments to shareholders that the requirement will give his children some degree of protection from an expected bombardment of requests.
“Those who can distribute huge sums are forever regarded as ‘targets of opportunity,’ ” Buffett wrote. “This unpleasant reality comes with the territory. Hence, the ‘unanimous decision’ provision. That restriction enables an immediate and final reply to grant-seekers: ‘It’s not something that would ever receive my brother’s consent.’ And that answer will improve the lives of my children.”
Buffett wrote that while potential successor trustees have been chosen, he hopes that Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett are themselves the ones to distribute all of his assets.
“I know the three well and trust them completely,” he wrote.
Buffett’s huge position in Berkshire means a rapid selling of his stock could jolt the share price. He wrote that his children should distribute his holdings gradually, and in a manner that “in no way betrays the exceptional trust Berkshire shareholders bestowed upon Charlie Munger and me.”
Buffett offered a suggestion for all parents, wealthy or not: “When your children are mature, have them read your will before you sign it.” He said it is better for children to be able to ask questions when a parent is still able to respond.
In discussing his fortune, Buffett, ever the teacher, highlighted the importance of compounding, especially after many years of investing.
“The real action from compounding takes place in the final twenty years of a lifetime,” he wrote. “By not stepping on any banana peels, I now remain in circulation at 94 with huge sums in savings—call these units of deferred consumption—that can be passed along to others who were given a very short straw at birth.” undefined undefined Berkshire’s Class B shares have rallied 34% this year, compared with a 26% gain by the S&P 500. Earlier this year the company joined a small club of U.S. businesses worth more than $1 trillion.
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
