A question for wealthy folks with homes, businesses, and family members all over the world is where to park their assets.
3 min
Ultra-rich families have often run their wealth from a single-family office located where their business exists, or their money was made, and where most members of their family live. But the dynamics for many of these families has radically changed as their businesses, homes, and children spread across the world, according to a report from Citi Private Bank.
Dealing with multiple jurisdictions creates possibilities but also complexities and raises a question for families of where the bulk of their assets should reside, as the bank details in the report, titled Asset Location and Global Mobility. Citi, through its global family office group, works with 1,800 family offices with an average net worth of US$2 billion, says Hannes Hofmann, head of the group.
“A lot more families are now saying, ‘how do you professionalize the decision where these assets are sitting?’” Hofmann says.
Citi’s family office clients are very global. In a survey published last week, 71% of the bank’s clients reported that they were international in some way. Of that group, 53% said they have assets in multiple countries; 44% cited having family members in several countries; and 19% said they have family who are considering a move to another country or changing their citizenship.
Potential changes to tax regulations affecting the wealthy resulting from elections in the U.K. and France in Europe, and several countries in Latin America, could spark further globalisation of the world’s wealthiest families, the survey said.
In selecting a location for a family office, Citi recommends considering four criteria: the stability of the country’s financial, economic, and political systems; its financial and legal infrastructure; access to talent and cost considerations; and convenience, “including where family members live, work, and play,” the report said.
“We’re telling everyone: As you think about your asset strategy, you want safety that there’s a rule of law and there’s also a financial system that will protect your assets if things go wrong,” Hofmann says. “We might assume this is something that you get everywhere in the world, but the truth is you don’t.”
Strong financial and legal infrastructure also ensures families can find informed advisors and that regulations are secure, supporting, for instance, the movement of assets across jurisdictions.
The purpose of Citi’s report is to show how the four criteria are interlinked, Hofmann says. It may make sense to place a family office in a major wealth centre such as the U.S., Switzerland, or Singapore, but assets can also be kept in jurisdictions such as Jersey in the Channel Islands, or Luxembourg, Monaco, and Dubai.
The report details key factors in each of these places. Monaco, for instance, is less than a square mile in size but “has for centuries attracted the wealthiest families in the world given its favorable tax system, robust, if limited economy, safety, advanced medical facilities, and agreeable Mediterranean climate,” Citi said.
The Bahamas, meanwhile, is a politically and economically stable country just off of Florida’s east coast, making it convenient to the U.S., Canada, and Central and South America.
The U.S., meanwhile, accounts for 32% of global liquid investable wealth, and attracts ultra wealthy individuals with its “almost unrivalled breadth of education, lifestyle, business, innovation, and investing opportunities.”
“People need to think about these places and where they want to have their assets, where they want to base their residency, and then of course, what potentially their exit strategies and contingency plans are,” Hofmann says. The latter is important for a world facing rising instability and conflict.
For those who don’t have a plan in place yet, the report offers several locations where golden visas and residency programs offer a path to a backup location, such as Spain, Malta, St. Kitts and Nevis, and New Zealand. Most of these are countries where the wealthy already have connections through education or business interests, the report said.
Some of these jurisdictions don’t have tax regimes or their tax regulations don’t apply for short stays. As a result, people are choosing to become “tax nomads”—dividing their time between countries so they don’t spend long enough in one place to be taxed.
“There are some very wealthy people [who] we work with and some very wealthy families who’ve taken this global location topic to an art form,” Hofmann says.
“A lot of people want to be in L.A. or Miami or New York and London, so you can spend a third of the year in the U.K. and the U.S. and then the remainder of the year you spend in other places and you’re not a tax resident anywhere for tax purposes,” he says.
This strategy is “completely legal,” Hofmann adds. “This is not tax avoidance, it’s just tax management.”
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
