WSJ’s latest quarterly survey shows economists’ expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates
2 min
The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters remain firmly optimistic about the economic outlook, despite some hints of weakness in recent data.
The following graphics show what economists are thinking now and how their forecasts—and the economy—have evolved over recent months and years. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered questions about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and how the election could affect the deficit, inflation and interest rates.
For about two years, economists consistently underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy, forecasting the economy would grow slower than it did.
That changed recently when growth was lower than expected in the first three months of the year. Still, most economists believe that a slowdown was inevitable after a period of rapid expansion and too-high inflation. The economy, they argue, is normalising rather than deteriorating.
In another shift, the unemployment rate has also recently climbed a little faster than economists were expecting—rising to 4.1% in June from 3.4% in early 2023.
Demand for workers seems to be cooling even as job growth remains solid, thanks in part to increased immigration. Again, economists are optimistic that this represents a return to a more stable environment.
The Journal’s latest survey of economists concluded July 9, two days before consumer-price index data showed inflation easing substantially in June. That may partially explain why inflation forecasts nudged a bit higher since the last survey in early April.
The difference, though, is marginal. Current forecasts—like previous forecasts—show strong confidence that the Fed will succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The question has been what it would take to get there.
The recent uptick in the unemployment rate and decline in inflation has rekindled hopes among investors that the Fed could cut short-term interest rates as many as three times this year—starting most likely in September.
Still, the recent good news on inflation has only come after a series of disappointing readings, including one that came out just after the April survey was conducted. As a result, the latest survey of economists shows a slightly higher path for rates.
Economists’ optimistic outlook can be seen in the dispersion of rate forecasts. The Fed would likely cut rates more aggressively if it were worried about a recession . However, 22% of survey respondents think that rates will fall below 3.75% by June 2025—down slightly from 25% of respondents in April.
We asked survey respondents a number of questions on the economy. Select an answer to see how economists responded.
Here’s what some of the survey respondents said about the economy.
The Wall Street survey has been publishing consensus forecasts from a panel of academic, business and financial economists for nearly 40 years. Not every economist answers every question.
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The U.S. now has more billionaires than China for the first time in a decade, driven by AI and a booming stock market.
3 min
The number of U.S. billionaires in the world reached 870 in mid-January, outpacing the number in China for the first time in 10 years, according to a snapshot of the wealthiest in the world by the Hurun Report.
The U.S. gained 70 billionaires since last year, powered by a rising stock market, a strong dollar, and the insatiable appetite for all things AI, according to the 14th annual Hurun Global Rich List . China gained nine billionaires overall for a total of 823. Hurun is a China-based research, media, and investment group.
“It’s been a good year for AI, money managers, entertainment, and crypto,” Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, said in a news release. “It’s been a tough year for luxury, telecommunications, and real estate in China.”
Overall, the Hurun list—which reflects a snapshot of global wealth based on calculations made Jan. 15—counted 3,442 billionaires in the world, up 5%, or 163, from a year ago. Their total wealth rose 13% to just under $17 trillion.
In November, New York research firm Altrata reported that the billionaire population rose 4% in 2023 to 3,323 individuals and their wealth rose 9% to $12.1 trillion.
Elon Musk, CEO of electric-car maker Tesla and right-hand advisor to President Donald Trump, topped the list for the fourth time in five years, with recorded wealth of $420 billion as of mid-January as Tesla stock soared in the aftermath of the U.S. election, according to Hurun’s calculations.
The firm noted that Musk’s wealth has since nosedived about $100 billion, falling along with shares of Tesla although the EV car maker is benefiting on Thursday from Trump’s 25% tariff on cars made outside the U.S.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s wealth stood at about $336 billion as of the market’s close on Wednesday, although measuring his exact wealth —including stakes in his privately held companies and the undiscounted value of his Tesla shares—is difficult to precisely determine.
The overall list this year contained 387 new billionaires, while 177 dropped off the list—more than 80 of which were from China, Hurun said. “China’s economy is continuing to restructure, with the drop-offs coming from a weeding out of healthcare and new energy and traditional manufacturing, as well as real estate,” Hoogewerf said in the release.
Among those who wealth sank was Colin Huang, the founder of PDD Holdings —the parent company of e-commerce platforms Temu and Pinduoduo—who lost $17 billion.
Also, Zhong Shanshan, the founder and chair of the Nongfu Spring beverage company and the majority owner of Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise , lost $8 billion from “intensifying competition” in the market for bottled water. The loss knocked Zhong from his top rank in China, which is now held by Zhang Yiming founder of Tik-Tok owner Bytedance. Zhang is ranked No. 22 overall.
Hurun’s top 10 billionaires is a familiar group of largely U.S. individuals including Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Larry Ellison. The list has France’s LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault in seventh place, three notches down from his fourth ranked spot on the Bloomberg list, reflecting a slump in luxury products last year.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is ranked No. 11 on Hurun’s list as his wealth nearly tripled to $128 billion through Jan. 15. Other AI billionaires found lower down on the list include Liang Wenfeng, 40, founder and CEO of DeepSeek, with wealth of $4.5 billion and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, with $1.8 billion.
Also making the list were musicians Jay-Z ($2.7 billion), Rihanna ($1.7 billion), Taylor Swift ($1.6 billion), and Paul McCartney ($1 billion). Sports stars included Michael Jordan ($3.3 billion), Tiger Woods ($1.7 billion), Floyd Mayweather ($1.3 billion), and LeBron James ($1.3 billion).
Wealth continues to surge across the globe, but Hoogewerf noted those amassing it aren’t overly generous.
“We only managed to find three individuals in the past year who donated more than $1 billion,” he said. Warren Buffet gave $5.3 billion, mainly to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, while Michael Bloomberg —ranked No. 19 with wealth of $92 billion—gave $3.7 billion to various causes. Netflix founder Reed Hastings, ranked No. 474 with wealth of $6.2 billion, donated $1.1 billion.
