In a post pandemic environment, workers are voting with their feet and skipping the office in favour of other, more appealing environments
4 min
For many, working from home is the new normal. The transition from being based in the office to working off-site has been a fundamental one, and almost four in 10 Australians worked from home at least once a week throughout 2023.
While figures show a slight decrease on 2021, working from home (WFH, it even has its own acronym) has continued to escalate in white-collar occupations, with 60 percent of managers and professionals eschewing the traditional office set-up. And those who aren’t already doing it wish they were. According to the annual Taking the Pulse of the Nation report, almost all workers (94pc) would like to do at least part of their work hours at home.
“I would say that the days of only full-time in the office for all employees are likely gone for good,” says the author of the report, the Melbourne Institute’s Professor Ragan Petrie.
“The trends in Australia mimic those in other countries where hybrid schedules are quite common.”
But is it all good news? Among the many compelling reasons to ditch the commute — saving time, improved mental health, higher productivity and being able to put the washing on — there are the well-documented shortcomings regarding the isolation, and missing out on the opportunities that those casual catch ups in the stairwell can offer.
“Constant drop-bys for chit-chat are not productive, but purposeful conversations are,” counters Petrie. “There might not be shortcomings of working from home per se, but rather not having the right infrastructure and support in place for workers to be productive. It’s important for employers and workers to figure this out.”
For those who are new to the workforce, flexible working arrangements are just the way things are. According to one survey, two out of every three Generation Z workers believe that the option to work from home is a non-negotiable.
Underpinning the normality of remote work are the advancements in automation and technology that make the transition smoother than ever — and perhaps support the use of email and text over the meetings and phone calls that younger generations shy away from.
“People of different ages have differential experience with technology, and there are some ways of communication people may feel more comfortable with than others,” says Petrie. “Certainly, technology plays a large role. Those whose jobs allow them to tap into technology to perform their tasks are well poised to be successful with a hybrid schedule.
“In the end, if worker output is satisfactory, why is it important where it is done?”
At the start of the pandemic as office-goers scrambled for a space to call work, the kitchen table was the go-to location. Now working remotely has become a more permanent arrangement, a purpose-designed study area or hybrid space is as desirable in real estate brochures as a media room or butler’s pantry.
Roger Wardy is a director at Ray White Touma Group in inner city Sydney, where more than 100,000 office employees have left the CBD for the greener pastures of remote work arrangements.
“Most house hunters want to see a home office or office space these days, and in larger homes it’s an expectation,” he says.
“As such, we’d be more likely to market a six-bed home as a five-bed plus office. If a buyer works from home, that will definitely add value.”
But the home office is just the beginning. Having paved the way for more flexible work arrangements, there’s now a growing trend towards co-working environments for companionship, productivity and a delineation of work and home.
High-tech co-working spaces offer several advantages over working from home, making them the preferred choice for many. A professional environment means distractions are minimised, and you’ll have access to state-of-the-art amenities that you probably won’t have at home. And then there are those networking opportunities — co-working spaces attract a diverse group of professionals and who knows what you might find out at the communal coffee bar? It’s something that’s making its way up the agenda for apartment developers, too, with those on the front foot offering co-working spaces along with the pool, gym and rooftop entertaining.
At the luxury new development Paradiso Place in Surfers Paradise (pictured above), the entire 2900sqm 26th floor is dedicated to a state-of-the-art co-working space, maximising 360-degree views of the Gold Coast from the ocean to the hinterland.
“To have the option of working in a space like this with all the facilities of a high-tech office within your own apartment building is an exciting prospect for buyers,” says Total Property Group Managing Director Adrian Parsons. “We have been receiving a great deal of interest in this development from business owners, entrepreneurs and professionals who can see themselves waking up in their luxury apartment with ocean views to go for a walk or run along the beach, use the onsite gym, then conveniently head to work in a state-of-the-art co-working space within their own building.”
The space incorporates a boardroom, private meeting rooms, work pods and multiple hot desks. And it’s not all about focused work; there’s also a spacious balcony event space and a Coffee Emporium complete with baristas.
“With working from home becoming the new normal, we are seeing many Australians choosing to move to quality lifestyle locations like the Gold Coast, and a full-floor co-working space of this standard is attracting a high level of inquiry,” says Parsons.
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Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.
3 min
Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.
For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.
The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.
Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.
“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.
Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.
Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.
Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.
“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.
Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.
“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”
Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.
Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”
The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.
The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.
These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.
Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.
Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.
Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.
And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.
“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”
