CHINA’S ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF STABILIZING—AND A SLOWER RECOVERY - Kanebridge News
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CHINA’S ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF STABILIZING—AND A SLOWER RECOVERY

By Reshma Kapadia
Fri, Nov 3, 2023 2:30pmGrey Clock 2 min

China’s economy is showing signs of stabilising but the improvements are decelerating. That could leave it in an L-shaped recovery—where the economy doesn’t see an upturn—that is unlikely to excite investors.

The iShares MSCI China ETF (ticker: MCHI) is down 11% so far this year. China’s recovery from three years of Covid restrictions has underwhelmed, there are concerns about the country’s longer term growth prospects, and geopolitical tensions loom.

While most analysts expect China to hit its 5% economic growth target, that may keep officials from bigger stimulus efforts, resulting in a recovery that is still anemic.

Indeed, a spate of October data from independent research firm China Beige Book show areas such as the property market still struggling to find a bottom, while there has been a slowdown in consumer spending.

Housing sales have softened in October from a month earlier and commercial real estate has had its worst showing this year. Both factory production and domestic orders also slowed.

Consumer spending is cooling, with households pulling back from big-ticket items including cars and appliances. They also are reducing their revenge spending on travel and dining out in recent months, according to China Beige Book.

Still, analysts are feeling more confident Beijing will do what is needed to create some stability, especially after it approved an additional $1 trillion renminbi government bond issuance to support infrastructure investment.

The debt will be issued not by local governments but by the sovereign, pushing headline deficit to 3.8% of GDP. It is a surprise move indicating political will to put a floor under economic activity, but also the latest signal of pain in the economy, says TS Lombard’s Rory Green in a note to clients.

Central authorities are trying to put a floor on equities, with reports Central Huijin Investment Limited—which is a part of the sovereign-wealth fund—bought exchange-traded funds. And authorities are trying to limit weakness in the yuan as part of stimulus efforts, he adds.

The next guideposts are a Politburo meeting in November and a Central Economic Work Conference in December that could offer clues to next year’s growth and fiscal outlook.

Green expects more emphasis on reallocating resources to technology sectors aligned with Beijing’s efforts to become more self-reliant, and a possible plan on how officials resolve local government debt burden.



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Strong family financial planning can help reduce taxes and support younger generations. From intrafamily loans and asset gifts to inheritance disclaimers, strategic cooperation can create meaningful financial benefits—when families have the trust and structure to make it work.

By Laura Saunders
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 4 min

Happy is the family whose members—parents, grandparents and grown children—trust each other enough to cooperate on shared goals, especially financial ones. When that is truly the case, Uncle Sam’s tax rules can help as well.

This matters especially now that mortgage rates are above 7%, and many families are looking for ways to help younger members. If the elders have resources and are confident younger ones can cooperate, a family loan could make homeownership possible while providing the elders with a useful income stream.

Other strategies can actually lower taxes, such as when funding 529 plans or Roth IRAs, or when someone inherits a traditional IRA with required withdrawals larger than they will need.

Here are three strategies useful for functional families.

Intrafamily loans

It is perfectly legal for families to lend money to a relative for a down payment or even a private mortgage.

But it is important not to cut corners, says Ryan McKeown, a CPA with Modern Wealth Enhancement in Minnesota. If the loan is for a down payment, be honest with the mortgage provider and have a formal agreement. The lender owes tax on the interest payments received.

If the loan is for a private mortgage, both sides should have legal representation with a formal written agreement, including payment terms. The lender owes tax on the interest, and the borrower often can deduct it if he or she itemizes.

To avoid IRS trouble, the interest rate shouldn’t be lower than the agency’s Applicable Federal Rate at the time of the loan. Currently that is about 5% for loans longer than nine years; about 4.5% for loans three to nine years; and about 4% for loans three years or less. Currently, traditional mortgage rates are generally above 7%.

In addition, the lender could use the $19,000 annual gift-tax exemption (described below) to forgive some or all of the interest or principal annually. If both lenders and borrowers are married, that is up to $76,000 a year. There is no tax for the borrower on such forgiveness, because it is from a gift.

If you’re going this route, McKeown advises against having a fixed plan to forgive the debt. Instead, do it in one-off letters specifying the amount—and keep careful records. Otherwise the IRS might try to treat the loan as a taxable gift.

Asset gifts

Powerful tax-saving moves for families often use gift-tax provisions. Under current law, anyone can give anyone else up to $19,000 of assets annually, free of gift tax. That means a married couple with three grandchildren could give them a total of $114,000 in 2026.

The gifts can be cash or other assets, like stock. For noncash gifts, the cost basis—which is the starting point for measuring taxable gain after a sale—“carries over” to the recipient. So if someone buys $1,000 of stock and gives it away when it is worth $5,000, the recipient’s cost basis is $1,000. If the recipient later sells the shares for $8,000, the taxable gain is $7,000.

Here’s an example showing how gifts could save a family taxes. Grandma is a widow of modest means, while her child and spouse have prospered. The couple has two children, and they want to contribute $5,000 to a 529 college-savings plan for each—but they need to sell stock to do it. Their tax rate on the sale would be 18.8%, and they would need to sell about $11,000 of stock.

However, Grandma’s federal tax rate on the stock sale is 0%. If the couple gives $10,000 of shares to Grandma, she could sell them, pay no tax, and fund the grandchildren’s 529 plans. This saves about $1,000 of tax.

These moves are legal, and they could be used in other ways, such as to help a young person fund a Roth IRA.

But trust among family members is essential: Under the law, givers can’t put conditions on a gift. Grandma could use her stock proceeds to take a cruise, but she makes 529 contributions instead.

Mark Sellner, a retired tax attorney and CPA living in Sarasota, Fla., uses this strategy. His children sell stock he gives them and fund 529 plans for his grandchildren.

The family’s tax savings aren’t huge, but he likes other benefits. The sales by his children don’t boost his adjusted gross income, which in turn could raise his Medicare Irmaa premiums or his 3.8% surtax on net investment income.

Sellner doesn’t worry about his children using the funds for another purpose.

“There can’t be any strings attached to gifts. Of course, it is up to us to decide whether to make them in the future,” he says.

Two caveats: The “kiddie tax” applies to most children under age 24, and it is levied at the parents’ rate on investment income above $2,700 in 2026. Consider this before making gifts to a young person.

Investors who give away stock also forgo the step-up, an important provision that exempts assets held at death from capital-gains tax.

Sellner knows he’s losing a step-up, but says, “The children could use a little more now. Why should they wait 20 years to get it?”

Disclaimers

A disclaimer is a highly useful strategy in which one heir renounces an inheritance in favor of another heir. Assuming family members cooperate, this can save taxes.

Here’s one example. Dad died and had a large traditional IRA that he left to Mom. She has enough assets and income to cover her expenses, and she lives in a state with a stiff estate tax. The inherited IRA would put her estate over the threshold.

Also surviving are three young-adult children. If Mom disclaims all or part of Dad’s IRA within nine months of his death, that amount could go directly to the children. They will have 10 years to empty the account, and the family as a whole will likely save estate and income taxes.

Disclaimers have many key details, especially regarding beneficiary documents. Although heirs have great freedom in choosing what assets to disclaim, the rules about who gets disclaimed property are rigid. It is best if the original owner names tiers of heirs so that if one disclaims, the next recipient is clear.