WSJ’s latest quarterly survey shows economists’ expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates
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The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters remain firmly optimistic about the economic outlook, despite some hints of weakness in recent data.
The following graphics show what economists are thinking now and how their forecasts—and the economy—have evolved over recent months and years. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered questions about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and how the election could affect the deficit, inflation and interest rates.
For about two years, economists consistently underestimated the strength of the U.S. economy, forecasting the economy would grow slower than it did.
That changed recently when growth was lower than expected in the first three months of the year. Still, most economists believe that a slowdown was inevitable after a period of rapid expansion and too-high inflation. The economy, they argue, is normalising rather than deteriorating.
In another shift, the unemployment rate has also recently climbed a little faster than economists were expecting—rising to 4.1% in June from 3.4% in early 2023.
Demand for workers seems to be cooling even as job growth remains solid, thanks in part to increased immigration. Again, economists are optimistic that this represents a return to a more stable environment.
The Journal’s latest survey of economists concluded July 9, two days before consumer-price index data showed inflation easing substantially in June. That may partially explain why inflation forecasts nudged a bit higher since the last survey in early April.
The difference, though, is marginal. Current forecasts—like previous forecasts—show strong confidence that the Fed will succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The question has been what it would take to get there.
The recent uptick in the unemployment rate and decline in inflation has rekindled hopes among investors that the Fed could cut short-term interest rates as many as three times this year—starting most likely in September.
Still, the recent good news on inflation has only come after a series of disappointing readings, including one that came out just after the April survey was conducted. As a result, the latest survey of economists shows a slightly higher path for rates.
Economists’ optimistic outlook can be seen in the dispersion of rate forecasts. The Fed would likely cut rates more aggressively if it were worried about a recession . However, 22% of survey respondents think that rates will fall below 3.75% by June 2025—down slightly from 25% of respondents in April.
We asked survey respondents a number of questions on the economy. Select an answer to see how economists responded.
Here’s what some of the survey respondents said about the economy.
The Wall Street survey has been publishing consensus forecasts from a panel of academic, business and financial economists for nearly 40 years. Not every economist answers every question.
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With US$40 million already committed, the Global Talent Fund is attracting investor attention with a strategy focused on building globally scalable consumer brands alongside high-profile talent.
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A new investment fund targeting celebrity-founded consumer brands has secured US$40 million in commitments and is rapidly approaching its US$50 million fundraising target, signalling growing investor appetite for alternative opportunities beyond traditional asset classes.
The Global Talent Fund, which has a maximum raise of US$100 million, focuses on building and investing in consumer businesses alongside celebrities, athletes, and influential personalities who play an active role as co-founders rather than simply endorsing products.
The strategy is based on the belief that changes in consumer behaviour, particularly the rise of social media and digital engagement, have fundamentally altered how brands are built and scaled.
GTF founding partner Jeremy Hunt, who is helping lead the fund’s strategy, said consumers increasingly feel connected to personalities they follow online and are more willing to support products developed by those individuals.
“Consumers are searching for content to engage with, and when a celebrity they like or follow takes them on the journey of creating a product or brand, they genuinely feel part of that process,” he said.
The fund is targeting high-growth consumer sectors including wellness, hydration, beauty and recovery, areas Hunt believes continue to benefit from strong global demand and ongoing innovation.
Rather than backing celebrity endorsement deals, the fund is seeking businesses where talent is deeply involved in product development, brand creation and long-term growth.
According to Hunt, authenticity remains one of the biggest differentiators between successful celebrity-backed brands and those that fail.
“The consumer can see clearly if someone is simply being paid to promote a product,” he said. “The winners are typically the brands where the celebrity has genuinely helped build the business from the ground up.”
The model has attracted support from several prominent Australian investors and business families, reflecting broader interest in alternative investments with global growth potential.
Hunt said consumer brands offered a level of tangibility that many investors found appealing.
“Consumer brands are what we touch, feel, smell and taste every day,” he said. “Our investors understand the growth potential in the model, but they also want to be part of the journey.”
The fund’s rapid progress towards its fundraising target comes amid growing recognition that celebrity influence, when combined with strong commercial execution and scalable business models, can create significant enterprise value.
With several high-profile celebrity-founded businesses generating billion-dollar exits in recent years, supporters of the strategy believe the opportunity remains in its early stages.
