Australia Prepares for a Post-Pandemic Population Boom

Australia’s international borders were snapped shut with the arrival of Covid-19 in March 2020, and more than a year later our island nation is still closed to new arrivals. As a result, the country, which relies heavily on overseas migration to boost its economy and housing market, has experienced its first negative population growth in more than a century.

One year into the pandemic, Australia’s migrant stock was 300,000 people fewer than it would have been, coupled by a net migration decline of 97,000 people, according to Federal budget estimates.

By 2030, the Australian government estimates the country will be “missing” 1 million new people. As of June 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded that there were more than 7.6 million migrants living in Australia, with 29.8% of the total population born in another country. England was the largest group of overseas-born migrants at 980,400, followed by those born in India at 721,000 and then Chinese migrants third at 650,600.

The hit to Australia’s population growth rate is already taking its toll on some parts of the property market, particularly inner city apartments. However, when borders do reopen, property and population experts predict that Australia’s successful and vigilant handling of the pandemic—Victoria instated Thursday a weeklong statewide lockdown in response to a cluster of only two-dozen or so cases—and its rebounding economy will attract the attention of cashed-up migrants and foreigners seeking out shrewd investments.

Understanding the Migration Equation

In the Federal Budget announced earlier this month, the government hinted at a “gradual return” to temporary or permanent migration, but no sooner than mid-2022. As a result, Australia’s population is predicted to be about 25.88 million by the end of next year.

Tim Lawless, head of research for property data firm CoreLogic, said the long-term impact of this blow to Australia’s population growth will be multilayered.

“If the Treasury forecasts are right, this means the rate of population growth will be the lowest since 1917. This will be disruptive to housing demand. However, the impact will not be evenly spread,” he explained.

“We need to consider the composition of housing demand. In the last few years at least, about 70% of migration has been temporary; it’s been students and visitors. And about 30% have been permanent migrants,” he continued. “Temporary migrants will usually rent, and even permanent arrivals typically rent before they buy anyway, so there’s always been a bit of a lag.”

As a result, inner city vacancy rates soared and rents dropped, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where most new arrivals initially land. A return of both temporary and permanent migrants would create an immediate demand throughout metropolitan rental markets and provide opportunities for investors coming back into the market.

Savvy Investors Will Be Ready for Open Borders

Simon Keustenmacher, social demographer and co-founder of Melbourne-based demographic advisory firm The Demographics Group, said Australia’s big city mayors and property developers are keen to reignite inner cities post-pandemic.

“The inner city rental market of relatively small dwellings—one or two bedroom apartments—has suffered because there are no new arrivals or international students. The more you can get to come, the more everyone will get out of it because they just invigorate these areas and put capital back into the economy,” he said.

Although no one knows yet how many temporary and permanent migrants Australia will welcome, or when, Mr. Keustenmacher is sure housing demand will skyrocket when they do.

“People will want to come to Australia at a much higher rate than we will take people in, I’m certain,” he said, adding that it’s especially true of the top end of the income spectrum. “More and more migrants will want to come to Australia because they’re thinking, ‘Where can I have the best lifestyle?’”

Mr. Keustenmacher said he envisaged Australia’s skilled migration list becoming shorter and more specific. Those highly skilled, well-paid workers who do arrive in Australia will have an additional challenge when seeking a home as they will be in direct competition with another huge slice of the population.

“Plenty of those high-income earners arriving in Australia will be in the family stage of their lifecycle so they’ll be competing for the most sought after property—three- and four-bedroom houses. Demographically speaking, that’s the hottest market to be in because Australia’s millennials, who are also in the family stage of life, are our biggest generation right now,” he explained.

“Therefore, if people buy purely for investment they should buy whatever property is deemed to be rare, because prices will be driven up,” he said.

Things Could Go From Good, to Even Better

Despite unprecedented negative population growth, Australia’s dwelling values did not suffer throughout the second half of 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021. On the contrary, in March alone, CoreLogic’s national home value index recorded a 2.8% increase, the fastest pace of monthly growth in 32 years.

John McGrath, founder of Australia-wide realtor group McGrath Real Estate, said when new arrivals return, housing demand is likely to increase even further.

“Whilst the current surge in local demand and property values will no doubt plateau in the near future as the inevitable buyer fatigue calms things down, international borders opening up will be the next catalyst for price growth,” he said.

During the height of the pandemic in mid-2020, real estate agents across Australia noted a sharp uptick in inquiry from Australians living overseas hoping to return home, or at least invest on home soil.

“We have already sold a number of properties to expats sight unseen off the internet over the past 12 months, but this will escalate rapidly as borders open,” he said.

To date, a wave of international interest in Australia’s luxury properties close to beaches or in rural settings has put upward price pressure on lifestyle locations, and Mr. McGrath said he believes that will inevitably create a trickle-down effect.

“While much of the demand will find its way to higher priced homes upward of $10 million , I expect we will see buying across all price ranges as people seek to migrate to Australia,” he said. “Traditionally, the vast majority of these immigrants investing into Australia have focused on Sydney and Melbourne, but due to lifestyle and workplace changes post-COVID we should see a wider spread of investment including many regional lifestyle areas.”

Waves, Wine and Wool

Three types of lifestyle markets have been highly sought after since the pandemic forced individuals to reconsider their priorities and work-life balance. Beach locations, wine regions and rural estates have all been hot property.

“Some of the really high-profile lifestyle markets would probably be on the radar for returning expats, or foreign migrants,” Mr. Lawless said. “If we do see more migrants arriving, or expats returning, a lot of them will be looking at not just Sydney or Melbourne, but also the likes of Byron Bay, Noosa or the Mornington Peninsula.”

A shift to remote working has meant these areas, some of which are hundreds of miles from employment hubs in the cities, are no longer disadvantaged by long commute times.

People Can’t Travel to Australia, but Money Can

The fact that international borders are closed isn’t holding back keen foreign investors who are playing the long property game.

“They don’t even need to move to Australia right now. Currency and capital can still flow across the border,” Mr. Lawless said.

“Expats or potentially foreign buyers would be looking at Australian real estate because it’s a pretty good investment at the moment. It’s on a strong capital gain trajectory and considering where mortgage rates are, it’s also relatively high yielding,” he explained.

Australian expats can buy established property, though foreign investors or potential migrants are restricted to purchasing new properties or buying land with the purpose of building a home, according to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board guidelines.

“There is limited availability for newly built apartments in some areas as construction is starting to wind down, but if you looked around Sydney and Melbourne, there are still plenty of apartments underway,” he said.

“We’ll see a few years down the track, considering how Australia has managed Covid-19 as well as just the sheer liveability of Australia, that this is going to be a very popular place. If I wasn’t in Australia I’d certainly want to be, put it that way,” Mr. Lawless said.

On a recent morning in Georgetown—Washington, D.C.’s oldest neighborhood—real-estate agent Jamie Peva strode down leafy N Street, brimming with historical tidbits.

Jackie Kennedy once lived on the street, he said. So did Ben Bradlee, former executive editor of the Washington Post, along with a former Miss America and a powerful U.S. Senator. Bradlee’s widow, author Sally Quinn, and Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, own stately homes there.

“I’ve seen a picture of Lyndon Johnson coming out of this house,” said Peva, passing a Federal-style brick mansion. “Also, the Beatles went to a lawn party here.”

Peva, a 60-year-old agent with Washington Fine Properties, has sold Georgetown real estate for over three decades, often traversing the neighborhood by bicycle. Of the roughly 2,500 houses in the historic neighborhood, he has been involved in the sale of 460, he estimated. A self-styled historian of the neighborhood, he knows stories behind its houses and their owners going back generations.

With a knack for lively storytelling, he shares his knowledge with some 37,500 Instagram followers, who have made Peva—sporting the bow ties he has worn since boarding school—an unlikely social-media influencer. Many of his followers are locals, and most have no plans to buy or sell real estate—until they do. It is then, according to Peva, that his spirited reels bring him to mind.

“It’s the digital version of a refrigerator magnet,” he said.

After Peva’s first video in November 2023, his eponymous Instagram account sparked a 10% increase in sales volume in the first year, and another 20% the next, he estimated. “It’s been very good for business, there is no question about it,” he said.

But Peva’s posts have also made him a local celebrity. As he walked down N street, the driver of a Mercedes station wagon slowed down to honk and wave. A lady walking a large dark gray dog stopped to ask what he was filming that day (a reel about a Colonial-era bottling plant.) Peva knew the dog from walking his two springers, Jumpy and Peggy-O, in the neighborhood.

“I need to make a video about the pooches of Georgetown,” he mused.

Jamie Peva shooting an upcoming Instagram reel on a historic house on P Street in Georgetown.

A growing number of real-estate agents now use social media to sell, and some have millions of followers with reels featuring ultraluxury pads, selling tips or reality TV-style reports on their daily lives. While Peva posts about his listings—and sometimes those of other agents—he mostly focuses on Georgetown history, local businesses and community events, saying his goal is to benefit both his business and the neighborhood.

“If we don’t find something genuinely interesting and worth sharing, we won’t do it,” said Peva’s daughter, Violet Peva, a New York social-media strategist who films, edits and posts his reels. “We cover many topics, not just real-estate information.”

Peva is originally from Connecticut, but has lived in Georgetown for over 30 years, currently in a cottage-style house with a white picket fence. Over the years, Georgetown has changed. The Georgetown Set, a powerful group of Cold War-era residents whose Sunday-night potluck dinners are said to have swayed U.S. policy, has long faded away. The community is still home to high-profile Washingtonians, including a Republican senator and several cabinet members. But it increasingly also attracts technology and finance executives, according to Peva. He now routinely signs nondisclosure agreements, ensuring privacy for wealthy clients. The shift has made him rethink his marketing approach.

“For years, a big part of our Georgetown business was made up of people who maintained a low profile,” he said. Real-estate agents were similarly low-key. Today, curb appeal is more important, he said, and agents are promoting themselves more. “As this change was underfoot, I was thinking that I needed to evolve myself too,” he said.

A street of colorful row houses in Georgetown.

Though his own social-media use is mostly limited to following sailing accounts, he asked his daughter to help him post his listings online. Violet, now 26, started coming to D.C. once a month to film his reels. After an early video, on a condominium building called the Elliott, her sister Fern called her to report: “Daddy’s blowing up on Instagram,” Violet recalled. The reel got over 50,000 views. The next two each drew over 300,000. Peva’s most popular post ever, with over 838,000 views, was about the Grateful Dead playing in Georgetown. Sometimes, Peva interviews Georgetowners such as Quinn, the author, or Jamie Stachowski, the owner of a local butcher shop.

Peva’s daughter, Violet Peva, shoots, edits and posts his reels.

Peva, who majored in history in college, now spends up to two hours a day on research, usually in the morning while on his stationery bike. Online, he pores over old newspapers or the Library of Congress website, and he has a collection of articles and books—in and out of print—about Georgetown.

Companies often approach Peva for promotional posts, he said, but he turns them down, feeling that followers would lose interest in constant commercials. One exception is a recent paid post on Mount Vernon, the former home of George Washington. Peva wanted to share its history, he said, and didn’t want to lose the opportunity to another Instagrammer.

Anthony Arend, a professor at Georgetown University, has lived in his current home for 19 years without any plans to sell or buy real estate. But he follows Peva and often likes his posts.

Peva at one of his listings, a 1870s house on Prospect Street.

“He is very charismatic, he is energetic, and he obviously knows a lot about the community,” said Arend, who has referred house-hunting friends to Peva.

One of Peva’s biggest deals—the $10.5 million sale of a 19th-century Italianate mansion—came after he made two 2024 reels featuring the property. In March, he sold the longtime O Street home of Tim and Jane Matz for $5.8 million after featuring it on his Instagram. Peva had showed them the home 25 years earlier, with Violet in a baby carrier on his back.

Last year, Kate Watts, 49, a digital consultant, called Peva to sell her late father’s three-bedroom house on Q Street; her husband had seen Peva on Instagram. In an October reel, Peva praised the architecture of the house, designed by modernist Hugh Newell Jacobsen. Halfway through, he mentioned an open house the next day, ending with an upbeat: “Did I also mention this house is for sale? $3.75 million!” The reel got 27,000 views, the open house was packed, and the buyers made an offer at the list price on the same day.

Peva often travels around Georgetown by bicycle.

Australia Prepares for a Post-Pandemic Population Boom

Property experts say a rush of people will come as soon as border restrictions ease.

Georgetown agent Jamie Peva blends history and real estate on Instagram, turning local stories into a powerful sales strategy.