The country’s real-estate slump is getting worse—and looks set to drag on for years
3 min
China’s real-estate crisis has dragged down the economy, caused massive layoffs and pushed multibillion-dollar companies to the point of collapse.
Economists think it is about to get worse.
Sales of newly built homes in China fell 6% last year, returning to a level not seen since 2016, according to China’s statistics bureau. Secondhand home prices in its four wealthiest cities—Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen—declined by between 11% and 14% in December from the year before, according to the broker Centaline Property.
Developers are starting fewer projects. Homeowners are paying back their mortgages early and borrowing less. Once-thriving property companies are stuck in protracted negotiations with foreign investors, following defaults on about $125 billion of overseas bonds between 2020 and late 2023, according to figures from S&P Global Ratings.
Chinese developers and local governments are so desperate to attract home buyers that some have resorted to bizarre marketing strategies.
A property company in Tianjin ran a video advertisement featuring the slogan “buy a house, get a wife for free.” It was a play on words, using the same Chinese characters as the phrase “buy a house, and give it to your wife”—but presented in a sentence structure typically used to offer freebies for home buyers. In September, the company was fined $4,184 for the ad.
A residential compound in eastern China’s Zhejiang province promised last year to give home buyers a 10-gram gold bar.
Earlier this month, Sheng Songcheng, former head of the statistics department at the People’s Bank of China, told a local conference that the housing downturn would last another two years. He thinks new-home sales will fall more than 5% in both 2024 and 2025.
Wall Street economists are also ringing alarm bells about how long the real-estate slump will last.
“Not too many people are buying, can buy or want to buy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. He said there had been a fundamental shift in the way Chinese people view the property sector, with housing no longer seen as a safe investment.
China’s real-estate sector and related industries once accounted for around a quarter of gross domestic product and the sector’s slump has been a significant drag on the world’s second-largest economy. That has increased calls for Beijing to do more to prop up the sector, but so far Chinese officials have stuck to piecemeal policies rather than introducing a landmark stimulus package.
A number of economists are making comparisons to Japan, which spent decades trying to rebound from a crash in real-estate and stock prices. China’s stock market is in a years-long slump.
China’s central bank can help make the situation less painful, but it will need to be aggressive, said Li-gang Liu, head of Asia Pacific economic analysis at Citi Global Wealth Investments. The central bank still has policy room and could take one big step to make a significant impact, he said.
Liu Yuan, head of property research at Centaline, said that without the government’s help, new-home prices will need to drop by another 50% from current levels before they reach a bottom. This is based on the assumption that the tipping point will only come when it is cheaper to buy than to rent houses, Liu said.
China’s real-estate downturn has claimed dozens of victims. More than 50 developers—mostly privately owned—have defaulted on their debt. Developers still have millions of unfinished homes that were sold but not delivered. Chinese authorities have set aside billions of dollars to help builders complete apartments but the logjam is growing.
The crisis has drained the coffers of some Chinese local governments, which previously relied on land sales as a main source of income. Economists estimate they have hidden debt worth anything from $400 billion to more than $800 billion. To quiet talk of potential defaults, the central government has set up debt-swap programs to help some of them refinance.
Some economists are optimistic. In the first half of this year, buyers of secondhand homes will gradually return to the new-home market and prop up the sector, said Helen Qiao, chief China economist at Bank of America. “Things will slowly get better from here,” Qiao said.
But most are still expecting more pain, and investors are bearish. A benchmark of Hong Kong-listed property stocks had fallen for four years in a row before the start of this year. Since Jan. 1, it is down another 15%.
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Three completed developments bring a quieter, more thoughtful style of luxury living to Mosman, Neutral Bay and Crows Nest.
From the shacks of yesterday to the sculptural sanctuaries of today, Australia’s coastal architecture has matured into a global benchmark for design.
Three completed developments bring a quieter, more thoughtful style of luxury living to Mosman, Neutral Bay and Crows Nest.
5 min
Luxury means different things to different people. On the Lower North Shore, it often means the everyday things are well considered and exceptionally executed.
House-like proportions. An abundance of natural light. Security and privacy. Materials crafted with care.
Homes built for the way people truly live, shaped by industry expert and Lower North Shore local resident at the helm, Justin Brown, whose attention to detail is constant and uncompromising.
This is the space Abadeen has occupied for more than 25 years.
The developer has delivered premium residential, commercial and mixed-use projects across Australia, but the Lower North Shore has become the clearest expression of its philosophy.
A recent example is Cremorne Point Estate, completed in 2020.
Its craftsmanship is so enduring that the penthouse is now reselling for almost twice its original price in only four years. Smaller buildings. Real liveability. Design that retains its elegance over time.
Abadeen’s current portfolio also includes The Villas, Mosman Residences, Park Residences, Northcote Collective and the newly announced Burran Residences in Balmoral. But three completed buildings now take centre stage: The Hampden in Mosman, ENSO in Neutral Bay and KOYO in Crows Nest.
All are complete, move-in ready, and only a limited number of residences remain. At The Hampden, only one whole-floor residence remains available.
Meticulously crafted by acclaimed Mathieson Architects and delivered by Abadeen, The Hampden offers a rare level of refinement within an exclusive collection of only three residences.
The final available home is a brand-new, whole-floor residence capturing sweeping Middle Harbour views over Chinamans and Clontarf Beaches from a prized northerly aspect. It delivers a house-like ambience with floor-to-ceiling glass that draws in natural light, paired with exquisite finishes in natural stone and warm timber.
Expansive open plan living and dining areas are anchored by a premium fireplace and flow out to a generous north-facing entertainers’ terrace overlooking boat-studded waters. The high-spec kitchen includes a full butler’s pantry, WOLF appliances, an integrated Sub-Zero fridge and freezer, a wine fridge and a Taj Mahal Quartzite island.
With only nine residences, ENSO is a boutique collection where Koichi Takada’s architecture focuses on calm, contemporary living.
Natural stone, timber and soft curves create a sense of warmth, while generous glazing and landscaped outlooks bring light and greenery into the heart of each home. Rooms are designed for real daily use, with integrated joinery, considered storage and floor plans that prioritise ease and comfort. The result is a series of homes that feel composed, tactile and effortless to live in every day.
Designed by Koichi Takada, KOYO is a boutique collection of 27 residences shaped by natural textures, soft curves and a refined sense of luxury.
Its low-rise form sits within a leafy cul-de-sac, offering privacy only moments from Crows Nest village and the new Victoria Cross Metro station.
Inside, every space is crafted for daily ease. Timber, stone and sculptural details create a warm, tactile palette, while full-height glazing draws light into the heart of each home.
Integrated joinery, intuitive circulation and thoughtful storage keep rooms open, calm and effortless to live in.
KOYO reflects Abadeen’s approach to modern living: refined, confident and beautifully functional. KOYO is modern, confident and created for daily life without unnecessary embellishment.
Abadeen’s philosophy is shaped by Executive Chairman & Founder Justin Brown, whose three decades in the industry have defined a distinct approach to residential development on the Lower North Shore and beyond.
Justin believes luxury should feel effortless. A home should work beautifully every day, with planning that makes sense, materials that age gracefully and detailing that supports calm, comfortable living long after the first inspection.
This philosophy is embedded early in the design process. Acoustic comfort, natural shading, solar orientation and circulation are resolved from the outset.
Landscapes are designed to welcome residents rather than simply frame buildings. Interiors prioritise clarity and ease, with joinery, storage and spatial proportions refined to deliver homes that feel composed, tactile and intuitive to live in.
Justin’s values-led approach unifies Abadeen’s Lower North Shore projects. Each reflects the same commitment to certainty, longevity and quiet architectural excellence. These are homes built to be lived in, not performed, shaped around the daily rituals, warmth and comfort that define enduring residential design.
This part of Sydney reflects Abadeen’s values. Established neighbourhoods. Walkable villages. Tree-lined streets. Natural light and natural rhythm. It is a quieter style of luxury that holds its value and relevance over time.
Abadeen is a leading Australian property developer with premium residential and mixed-use projects across NSW, VIC, QLD and WA. Limited residences remain at The Hampden in Mosman, ENSO in Neutral Bay and KOYO in Crows Nest. Private appointments and viewings are now available. Call Jay Carter on 0417 248 117.
