“Don’t Fear A Crash”: Dr Andrew Wilson
A rapid fire tete-a-tete with the leading Australian economist and founder of My Housing Market.
By Terry Christodoulou
Wed, Apr 21, 2021 8:59am
3 min
3 min
Kanebridge News: Let’s cut straight to it – your response to the almost daily diatribe being espoused by the naysayers in regards to the national housing market, specifically Sydney, and predictions about its alleged imminent failure?
Dr Andrew Wilson: Such attention-seeking crash predictions have consistently proved to be wrong in the past, and will again prove just as wrong this time. The prospect for the preconditions for falling house prices – sharp increases in interest rates – has never been more remote.
KN: How do you view market movement in the major capitals the next 12 months?
AW: Strong growth in all capitals – Melbourne, Sydney and Perth top performers all likely higher by 10%. Price’s growth will likely decline over the year as affordability falls through higher prices with flat interest rates and low incomes growth.
KN: And the residential rental market?
AW: Lower vacancy rates and higher rents for houses compared to units generally across the board.
KN: Perennial question then – advice for those trying to get into the property market this year?
AW: Maximise your buying potential. Be prepared to compromise. Be prepared to be disappointed. Consider buying first and then selling. As always, consult a financial advisor.
KN: How important is data use in property and how can a novice best apply such sets in regards to a purchase?
AW: Reliable, real-time data provides the foundation for property decision making – enhanced by objective, rational commentary that joins the dots.
KN: What do you see as the most important data consideration(s) when assessing movement in a specific market?
AW: Local supply and demand factors, matched with the overarching macroeconomic drivers and real-time market activity measures of prices and volumes.
KN: Clearance rates across the country, specifically Sydney, have recently hit record highs — how do you analyse such numbers, given this is unprecedented?
AW: The Sydney market is responding to high levels of affordability with prices – despite recent strong growth – still at the levels of four years ago. Over that period mortgage rates have fallen by over 1% and incomes have increased by over 6%, giving buyers the capacity to pay more for property. With credit restrictions and coronavirus impediments now eased – the market has clear air to catch up.
KN: Your take on why we’re a property engaged culture?
AW: High aspiration for home ownership and investment underpinned by a strong financial sector and enhanced taxation benefits.
KN: To those that might not know you – you formerly worked as a chief economist for the Domain group, Australian Property Monitors before launching My Housing Market.
AW: Well, my background is in the science and philosophy of housing market economics — I was an academic researcher and lecturer at RMIT University before I worked my way to chief economist at Domain Group and, now, running my own offering and analytics through My Housing Market.
KN: What was the impetus to launch My Housing Market – and how does the platform differentiate itself from what else is out there?
AW: My Housing Market combines high-level, comprehensive, real-time data insights into property markets with detailed, credible and reliable expert commentary. The ‘what’ and the ‘why’.
KN: What is it about property that you’re drawn to?
AW: I have to live somewhere.
KN: Well played …
Kanebridge News uses real-time data supplied by My Housing Market.
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The couple, however, worried about clashing with the Mediterranean-style architecture typically associated with their neighborhood of Old Palo Alto.
So they tapped architect Steven Ehrlich to create a design that paid homage to its surroundings with stucco, mahogany and titanium zinc cladding. They spent $20 million over several years building the house, completed in 2005.
Now looking to be closer to their adult daughter on the East Coast, they are putting the five-bedroom home on the market for $44 million—the most expensive listing in Palo Alto.
Waldfogel is an angel investor who co-founded Redback Networks, a telecommunications-equipment company. MacLean previously had a career in fundraising.
The couple purchased the roughly 0.4-acre site for $7.1 million in 2000 and demolished a circa-1930s Spanish Colonial home. The house they built pinwheels around a central staircase. It has 7,900 square feet of livable space, with four distinct courtyards and a pool.
A key feature of the home is a cast-in-place concrete wall, or spine, that is two stories high and about 80 feet long. “There’s a little bit of controlled chaos in what comes out of the form,” unlike a perfectly uniform surface, Waldfogel said. “If you want that, you do it in plastic.”
Waldfogel said he and his wife are thinking about the next phase of life now that their daughter is grown, although they have not decided where they will move. They also have a home in Sun Valley, Idaho.
“Right now we’re just trying to emotionally let go and decide what to do next,” he said.
Palo Alto, an epicenter of venture capital and tech startups in Silicon Valley, is home to some of the country’s biggest tech titans. Sales volume and prices are rising, with a median sale price of $3.5 million for the three months ending in August, up 5.8% year-over-year, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.
Arthur Sharif of Sotheby’s International Realty—San Francisco Brokerage has the listing.
