4 Factors That Are Popping the EV Stock Bubble
Electric-vehicle investors are going through a brutal stretch after an epic year.
Electric-vehicle investors are going through a brutal stretch after an epic year.
Shares fell hard across the sector on Wednesday as concern about inflation joined the list of worries dragging on the shares. Stock in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), the leader of the EV pack, dropped 4.4% Wednesday, closing below $600 a share for the first time since early March. Shares closed near the low of the day.
The average drop among the EV stocks Barron’s tracks was about 3%. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1%, 2% and 2.7%, respectively.
Behind all those declines was news early in the day that consumer prices increased 4.2% year over year in April, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In April 2020, of course, things were falling apart, sending prices lower, amid Covid-19 lockdowns, so the gain was relative to a low base. But the March to April pickup in prices, excluding food and energy, was 0.9%. That rate equals full-year inflation of more than 11%.
Inflation that high is like a parasite, eating into savings and sucking energy out of the economy. It also tends to hurt stock valuations, especially those of expensive growth companies that are expected to generate most of their cash flows far in the future. Higher inflation means higher bond yields, which reduce the current value of future cash flows, partly because higher rates give investors options to earn more interest on their money right now.
Wednesday’s inflation-fueled declines are just the tip of the iceberg, though, for EV companies. Tesla stock is down about 34% from its January 52-week high of more than $900 a share. The average drop from 52-week highs for the rest of the EV names is about 70%. Investors just don’t have the appetite for more speculative, higher-growth stocks in the current environment.
Stock in Churchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV (CCIV), the SPAC merging with Lucid Motors, is down about 73% from its 52-week high. Hyliion (HYLN) shares are down about 86%. And the Chinese EV makers NIO (NIO), XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) have fallen an average of about 45% from their 52-week highs.
Inflation is just the latest problem for the stocks. More competition in the EV business, with traditional auto makers pouring billions into developing vehicles, is one problem. At the same time, the global shortage of semiconductors is constraining automotive production around the globe, making it hard for EV makers to benefit from red-hot demand for cars and rising gasoline price.
What is more, many of the new EV companies became public by merging with special-purpose acquisition companies. Many SPAC stocks, not just the EV-related ones, are struggling. The Defiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF (SPAK) is down 34% from its February 52-week high.
A dozen EV-SPAC companies Barron’s tracks are now down 15% over the past year on average. Only five remain above their SPAC merger price of $10 a share: Lucid, Fisker (FSR), Arrival (ARVL), QuantumScape (QS), and Nikola (NKLA).
Investors might believe that means those are the long-term winners among the EV SPAC stocks. But it is also possible their higher prices mean there is still further to fall.
Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 12, 2021.
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New research suggests that bonuses make employees feel more like a mere cog in a wheel.
When it comes to rewarding workers financially, cash isn’t always king.
Companies frequently give employees monetary bonuses, but a new study suggests that paid vacation time is a perk employers should also consider.
The study’s authors say that while they didn’t explicitly look into whether employees prefer time off, the study found that receiving extra vacation time rather than bonus money makes workers feel less like a mere cog in a wheel and more like people who are recognised and valued as individuals with a life beyond work.
It makes them feel more human, in the researchers’ terms.
And that feeling benefits employers as well as employees, says Sanford DeVoe, a professor at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, and one of the study’s authors.
Feeling more human is strongly correlated with higher job satisfaction, greater engagement with work, better relationships with colleagues and less inclination to leave a job, he says.
In one experiment, the researchers asked about 1,500 participants to recall times when they received a monetary bonus or paid time off—all had received both—and how that made them feel.
Participants responded to the question on a 7-point scale, from feeling more like a robot on the low end of the scale to feeling more human on the high end. Monetary bonuses were given an average score of 5.04, compared with 5.4 for paid vacation time.
“While that difference may sound modest numerically, it represents a meaningful psychological shift,” says DeVoe. “It’s the difference between feeling neutral and feeling genuinely seen as a person.”
The authors then sought to better understand why paid vacation time made employees feel more human. In another experiment, about 500 participants were asked to imagine starting a new job where they might be awarded a bonus. Some were told the bonus would be an extra week of vacation, others were told it would be an extra week of pay.
Participants were then asked about their expectations for being able to keep their work and home lives separate in the new job. Those who could hope for a bonus of extra time off expected more separation between their work and personal lives than those whose potential bonus would be extra pay.
They also reported feeling more human on the 7-point scale. This suggested to the researchers that time off makes people feel more human because it creates a clearer psychological distance from work than a monetary bonus.
In a third experiment, the researchers further tested the idea that clear boundaries between work and personal lives were driving their results.
Two hundred participants were told to imagine being on a vacation and receiving two texts, including one from their mother. Half were told the second text was from a friend and half were told the second text was from their boss.
The authors then measured how human participants felt after each scenario. The average score for those receiving a text from a friend was 5.4 on the 7-point scale, compared with 4.16 for those receiving a text from the boss.
The difference in the scores “demonstrates that even minimal work intrusions can undo the psychological benefits of time off,” says DeVoe. “It shows that it’s not just time away that matters—it’s whether work actually lets go.”
All of this is important for employers looking to get the most out of their workers, he says. “For managers concerned with sustainable productivity, giving people uninterrupted time away from work can be a powerful lever.”